View Full Version : Speculation: New Canon definately coming
1st of June 2006 (Thu), 14:23
Diclaimer: The following completely fabricated speculation is based on one piece of barely correlated timeing from past events.
- It should not be taken very seriously - I don't:
I have no doubt at this point that Canon is about to blow Noink out of the water. Based on the fact that Noink just announced their new D2Xs at a lower price then thier current D2X, indicates Noink is in panic mode. they must have found out what Canon is going to come out with later this summer and want to get the last of the Noink customer's money before the rest jump ship to Canon after the new Canon comes out.
this bit of speculation is based on the fact that Noink tends to announce products that compete in some fashion with the equivilant product that Canon is about to announce.
So with the announcement of the D2Xs, especially the "s" designation indicates that they are expecting a new 1Ds version to come out soon.
And while they usually only announce about 2 months before Canon does, unless Canon announces in Early August, instead of the expected mid to late-September announcement; this can only mean they are even more worried about what Canon is coming out with.
So at this point I am definately getting my hopes up for a Canon 1Dsx super camera with 8.5 or more FPS at 22MP, but with a crop mode to be able to increase buffer (from 20 or more images to 40 or more raw images) or to take advanatage of the square, 16:9 (for stop motion animators) or 4:3 mask modes. And maybe even a under $7,000 price range.
Yep since Noink announced a new camera at this time, the next Canon has to be good.
Just my completely probably baseless speculation - but what if I am right. 8) 8) 8)
1st of June 2006 (Thu), 19:39
It may be speculation but has anyone else noticed that the 1D Mark II N has been dropping in price recently. It may be an indication that an update is closer than we think.
1st of June 2006 (Thu), 19:47
I think your speculation is off. I think Canon is eliminating the 1DMKII and replacing it w/ common but upgraded body 5D capable of at least 8fps, weatherseal, buildin wifi, dual memory slot, wireless flash communication, firewire 800, dual image sensor w/ for live lcd preview.
2nd of June 2006 (Fri), 18:18
Canon currently has a rebate on the 5D and Rebel XT. Usually when they have rebates is to get rid of the old inventory before bringing out new cameras. The rebate ends July 15 and must be postmark by August 5th. So I look for Canon making their announcement 1 to 2 weeks after August 5th. I think they are replacing the 5D, Rebel XT, combining the 1Ds Mark II and 1D Mark II N into one camera. The new 1Ds will probably have a normal mode full frame and a high speed mode with a crop factor, 22MP, lower price. They need to do something big because the 30D was a big disappointment.
2nd of June 2006 (Fri), 22:11
Seriously there isn't anything in DSLR realm capable of competing w/ the 1DsMKII if there is any change it would be more integration such as WiFi and Firewire 800 for better tether/untether capability larger buffer memory for faster frame rate but adding crop factor is unrealistic because those who bought the 1DsMKII bought it for the full frame not for speed. If anyone needed speed they could've save $3000 and get the 1DMKII. The realistic merger would be the 5D w/ the 1DMKII w/ 12MP sensor and a larger buffer and maybe the introduction of DiGIC III before it trickle down to lower models. Any significant changes to XT will be minimal w/o taking a hit on the 30D most likely a larger LCD, spot metering, faster and more accurate AF.
3rd of June 2006 (Sat), 16:07
Personally I'm hoping for a 5D update. I'd like to see the MkII treatment and a few more focus points. In my mind I've tagged the 5D as the digital version of the EOS3 was.
I'd like interchangable focus screens, and 21 AF points. I'm constantly in fight mode with my 20Ds focus points and I'd like to get a screen that makes it easier to see when on a long DOF i'm out of focus on the object in question.
3rd of June 2006 (Sat), 16:09
They need to do something big because the 30D was a big disappointment.
Why do you say that? Look at their history, short of the D30 to D60 transition they do one big new model with lots of new features (D60) then they tweak it (10D) then they repeat (20D & 30D)
I wish they'd do a different model number scheme though. 20D and 20D MkII would have been better suited for those. Especially the 30D vs. D30 is confusing for us long time folks. I have a coworker that has a D30 and when we're talking about things I constantly screw up the two names.
3rd of June 2006 (Sat), 17:38
I have been reading a lot of speculation that because Canon has no competition for their flagship they are not likely to have a release this fall other then a minor upgrade. While I grant this as a possibility it would seem to me given that I know they are starting to hit the physics limits and they have previously stated they would have a 22MP at 8FPS camera if they could have done it. Given that the number 22 had to come from somewhere and given that 22-25 is the expected upper limit before noise starts impacting higher resolutions. And given they are already at 16.7 and they should easily be able to do a 8FPS camera at the at least 16.7MP resolution.
Why would Canon not want to be the first to produce the camera that hits the limit. If they release a 22MP 8FPS camera this fall, then they are the first to the mark and the best anyone else can do is match their effort. And if from that point forward you are only producing that sensor size, then the sensor being the major cost, wouldn't producing the optimum sensor for the longest mean they would be most likely to keep the cost at the lowest (or more importantly keep the profit margin at the highest).
If I knew I was not going to get beyond 22MP with the technology currently available and it would be years before any new technology came down the pike, then I most certainly would go that last little bit, so that I was already there and I could concentrate my R&D resources in other areas. I wouldn't wait until my competition started to catch up.
Now if I had a long way to go, story would be different. But from all of the research I have done and the people I have talked too, some of which are supposed to know what they are talking about the SNR limit for the 35mm format is going to be around the 22-25MP region, beyond that the noise will start getting in the way. You can get more pixels, but the useable ISO will start dropping.
Just my thinking today,
3rd of June 2006 (Sat), 21:32
A minor upgrade of the 1Ds Mk II would make some sense to add the 2.5" screen with the 170 degree viewing and picture sytles now found on the 1Dn Mk II, the 5D and the 30D.
I do like the idea of a weather sealed version of the 5D - a 5Dn perhaps. My view on the $300 5D rebate was to make it that much closer in price to the D200 rather than really to get rid of 5D stock. The model is new and seems to be selling well. Even better - or simply in addition - would be a weather sealed 30D for a slight price increase ... perhaps around a D200 price.
6th of June 2006 (Tue), 21:16
When do you think Canon will introduce a whole new sensor paradigm, i.e. some non-CMOS sensor with both dynamic range and noise tolerance that bury their current products?
I ask because I am potentially in the market for the 5D or its successor, but frankly I'd be a lot more eager to spend my money if I didn't have to fret about blowing highlights on every outdoor pic I take. I just really don't feel like shelling out $2500 - $3000 for a camera that may be the last in its breed of this type of sensor.
Yes I know that something new will always loom on the horizon -- but in this case it's worth the wait. Many of the other upgrades discussed above pale in comparison to what a higher dynamic range sensor could offer.
6th of June 2006 (Tue), 22:15
I think CMOS is here to stay at least for a while longer. The competition is trailing behind w/ thier CCD sensors and Nikon will eventually migrate over to CMOS. Kodak who recently left the DSLR market is doing a Joint venture w/ IBM and a Taiwanese Company to design and manufacture CMOS sensor for imaging purposes. I expect that within a couple of years Medium format Camera will eventually Migrate over CMOS as well so I would doubt very much that Canon the leader in CMOS image sensor will jump ship and go back to CCD.
6th of June 2006 (Tue), 22:28
I wasn't suggesting that they go to CCD.
Without a doubt Canon and Nikon and everyone else has engineers working on better sensors, with the main limitations (aside from production cost) being noise, resolution, and dynamic range. As of right now Fuji is the only company with an SLR whose sensor approximates the dynamic range of film.
So I think the world is awaiting a major technical advance in commercially available sensors. These things exist already in the scientific world, but they're not in our cameras yet. Coming from film myself, and now having taken nearly 10,000 photos with my 300D, I'm incredibly frustrated by the highlight intolerance. And I'm an amateur nothing in the photography world -- I'd bet that pros are dying for a new sensor even more than I am. Capturing those clouds and those wedding dresses isn't easy when they blow out so quickly.
6th of June 2006 (Tue), 22:41
Nikon out source their sensors, for most part their sensors comes from Sony and now that Sony have inherited Monoltas Camera business and Sony will be offering their own DSLR Nikon might be shopping for another vendor for their next DSLR. Fuji greatest asset is their ability to use other peoples lenses but their following is limit. There is another less talk about DSLR and that is the Sigma w/ the Faveon sensor.
7th of June 2006 (Wed), 19:22
The only Canon I';m interested in right now is a 1D MkIII...
Alas the stop gap N" version I fear has pushed the 1D upgrade back at least another year.
7th of June 2006 (Wed), 19:30
Here is a link to an interview w/ Canon's director of media relations on the topic of the future in Digital Photography and Canon's outlook:
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