August 24, 2006 -- a new EOS Digital Body? [Archive] - Canon Digital Photography Forums

-MasterChief-

3rd of August 2006 (Thu), 14:29

here's the article ....

So what's next from Canon? EOS 1Ds Mk III perhaps?
This page was last modified on 08/02/2006 14:22:59

August has become the tradtional summer month for speculating about what (if anything) Canon will release for the fall. In the last few years Canon have chosen the end of August or September to reveal many of their latest DSLR offerings. For example:

September 24th 2002 - Canon EOS 1Ds announced
August 20th 2003 - Canon EOS Rebel announced
August 19th 2004 - Canon EOS 20D announced
September 21st 2004 - Canon EOS 1Ds Mk II announced
August 22nd 2005 - Canon EOS 5D announced
August 22nd 2005 - Canon EOS 1D MkII N announced
From this you might expect that something will be announce around the end of August 2006, and it now seems like you'd be right. Canon have been running a flash based banner advertisement on an Israeli website (in Hebrew...) which says something like ""This year August will be different - August 24th 2006 - Every legend has a beginning". So it seems that Canon think they have something important to announce and that they will do it on August 24th.
In case you can read Hebrew, here's a static copy of the frames in the ad.

But what is this legend of which they speak? That's the $64,000 question right now.

Based on the EOS 20D to EOS 30D upgrade earlier in the year, it seemed logical to assume that Canon would give the Digital Rebel XT (350D) a similar facelift, keeping the same sensor but adding a larger LCD screen and some software features like Picture Modes - but that would hardly be the birth of a legend, even in the eyes of Canon's marketing division!

Recently Sony announce a $900 DSLR with a 10MP sensor and image stabilization built into the camera body. Then Nikon announced that on August 9th they would make an announcement, but leaked that the announcement would be a 10 MP DSLR called the D80 and the prevailing opinion is that it's a replacement for the D70s an will sell for around $900 too.

So it now looks like there will be two 10.2 MP DSLRs (one with image stabilization) available for well under $1000 in the fall. If Canon anticipated this, an essentially unchanged 8MP EOS 350D (Rebel XT) isn't going to set the camera wold on fire. On the other hand if they did anticipate this and have developed a higher pixel count sensor (10MP?) what would a 10MP Digital Rebel at, say $800, do to sales of the 8.2 MP EOS 30D? And if it had very limited software, how would it fare in competition with the Sony Alpha A-100 and the Nikon D80? Quite a dilemma for Canon.

Could Canon also update the D30 and add a higher pixel count sensor? Anything is possible, but the 30D has been out for less than 6 months, so that does seem a little unlikely. In February Canon were saying that they were sticking to 8.2MP because cramming more (smaller) pixels onto the sensor chip would result in higher noise at high ISO settings and Canon didn't think that would be acceptable. I think they were right, since test have shown that both the Nikon D200 and Sony Alpha A-100 (both 10MP) do indeed show higher noise than the EOS 20D or 30D, especially the Sony Alpha A-100. It's probably safe to assume the Nikon D80 will follow suit.

So what's coming? Right now I don't know! What would be "a legend"?

It could be a new version of Canon's flagship DSLR the 1Ds Mk II, either as a 1Ds MkII N, or more likely a 1Ds Mk III The last update was in September 2004, which is almost 2 years ago. Though it's still the pixel champion and one of the only full frame DSLRs available (the EOS 5D is the other) Canon aren't ones to sit on their laurels, so an update could certainly be possible. If they used the same pixel density that they currently have in the EOS 20D and 30D, a full frame sensor would have 21 MP and noise performance at least as good as the 20D/30D. That could certainly qualify as "the birth of a legend" if you were a copywriter prone to hyperbole (as most of them are!).

Update August 2nd - CameraWest (www.camerawest.com) are currently advertising that they are adding names to their waiting list for the 22MP Canon 1Ds. I can't say if they're just guessing along with the rest of us or if they know something that they shouldn't be talking about. They also say they taking names for the Leica M8 and Nikon D80 - though Nikon haven't officially released any info on the D80 yet and Leica haven't officially given any date for release of their digital rangefinder.

I've seen some suggestion of a "1Ds MkII N" on other websites, some of which even quote the use of "EOS 1Ds Mk II N" on websites like Canon's http://web.canon.jp/technology/canon_tech/explanation/multi_zone.html. However my analysis of these pages suggests that it's normally a typo for EOS 1D Mk II N. For example the Canon page is taking about the 21 zone metering/45 point AF system, which is indeed on both the 1D Mk II N and 1Ds Mk II. An extra "s" is an easy typo to make and in all cases wher I've seen a "1Ds Mk II N" listed in a specification sheet, the "1D MK II N" has been missing from the list. I'm not saying there is or will be no 1Ds Mk II N, just that the cited evidence so far is very thin and most probably nothing more than a typographical error.

The other camera that just won't die on the rumor mill is the mythical EOS 3D. I think the reason the rumor won't die is because it's something that a lot of people want, but I don't know that it's technically possible right now. Canon have been heavily discounting (via a $300 rebate) the EOS 5D, bringing the cost into the $2500 region, and large rebates have in the past indicated the end of a production run or a camera, but the 5D is only a year old, so a replacement is possible, though as usual I have to say that anything is possible. Such a camera would also probably qualify for "legend" status. I've seen a suggestion of an EOS 3F, a DSLR with a Foveon (3 color) sensor but to me it seems pretty unlikely and an alternate EOS 3D with a 1.3x sensor and ECF (eye controlled focus). I suppose a 3D with ECF is possible, though Canon have never used it on their high end cameras (EOS-1 series), nor really considering it a "professional" feature because it's not 100% reliable - something required for all EOS-1 series bodies.

How about a full frame version of the EOS 1D Mk II N? 1.3x is OK, but full frame might be better if Canon could keep the frame rate at 8fps, or even maybe go up to 10fps. With current electronics that might be possible if the sensor had 10-12MP. A legend? Maybe...I guess...

Though not likely to be regarded as anyone as a "legend" a bottom end EOS 3000D selling for under $500 is also a possibility. Canon don't have a DSLR positioned at the very low price end of the market and there are probably a significant number of "1st timers" who would go for a camera for $500 but hesitate to spend $750 or more for a Digital Rebel XT. Even if such a camera is introduced though, it can't be the "legend" that Canon suggest is coming.

The final possibility is that Canon are smarter than any of us and that they have come up with a disruptive technology that will change digital camera design. That could certainly be the birth of a legend if you're an advertising copywriter. One possibility is the use of an OLED EVF display in a DSLR camera with a live image preview and that has no mirror or optical viewfinder. Such a camera could be smaller, lighter, lower power consuming and cheaper than a conventional optical DSLR and might find its way into a "Rebel" series body first. Olympus have the E-330 with live LCD preview, but the image quality (especially at higher ISO settings) leaves something to be desired.

Canon certainly have the technology to do something interesting with sensor design. They have a number of interesting patents in the field with some novel ideas, from higher dynamic range to new ways of dealing with color separation to higher ISO/lower noise designs. Of course building a prototype in a lab is very different from making a robust, reliable device on a mass production basis at an affordable cost.

At this point (if I were a betting man), my money would be on an EOS 1Ds Mk III with something like a 22 MP sensor (+/- a few pixels) as Canon's new "legend". I'd also expect to see something of a tweak to the EOS Digital Rebel XT, but no major senor upgrade.

These are just guesses of course and there's no only about 3 weeks to go to find out for sure, I'll be keeping my ear to the ground and, of course, looking for information leaks, and if I discover anything I'll certainly report it. However, 3 weeks isn't that long to wait...at least not for the birth of a legend!