PREDICTION - Consolidated

[FotoPhreak]

Hi all,

I have noticed that in both my own and other posts, there have been mentions of what may be to come in the DSLR market.

I thought it might be an idea to try and consolidate these predictions, which may actually assist in those in a similar situation as to myself with regards to the debate between the 300D & the 10D as a first purchase (see my other post "URGENT: ...".

Some predictions I have seen are that there will be something of a new 1D but not as pricey.

Others have said that the 10D won't be replaced as they would be shooting themselves in the foot.

And personally I can't see the 300D being replaced so soon after being released.

So do you agree on the above? What do you think is next?

Post here!

Cheers =)

[defordphoto]

The next camera out will be a 1D replacement which is sorely needed. It'll probably be in the 6-8 megapixel range and faster than heck. It'll probably have a street value of $5k.

I see nothing changing in the near future for the Rebel or the 10D until the end of 2004 or early 2005.

Of course I could be wrong, that's just my opinion. :)

[PacAce]

The other day I was browsing through the thick B&H Digital Camera catalog and I happened to see a write up on the new Nikon D2H camera which has an optional attachment for sending images from the camera to a computer via wifi real time! (Didn't someone mention something about this the other day in the forum, I think it was RMFSports)?

So, how long do you suppose it'll be before Canon counters with a new camera with similar features? Possibly in the 1D replacement?

[CyberDyneSystems]

IF Canon were to stick to it's D30, D60, 10D schedule,. then there would be a new one in February.

But I truly doubt there will be. The 10D is holding it's own quite nicely.

I would be fairly confident in RFM's assesmnet,. it will be a 1D replacement,.. the only place Canon currently is "loosing the race" is the 1D Vs. Nikon's brand new D2H. (but the 1D was so much better than the D1H for so looong this slip behind is exceptable :D )

The most often predicted model,. to the point that someone had a fake press relese posted with a mock up camera, is the long fantasized EOS 3 Digital.

It is hard to rule it out,. but what price point would it command. The EOS 3 is substantially less $$$ than the 1V,.. so the 3 Digital would need to be substantially less than the 1D,... but pricier than the 10D???

I'm just not sure there is room for Canon to have 3 profesional models preiced higher than the 10D,. and the 10D and the 300D.

So,. if and when an EOS 3-like Digital does arrive,. I do not feel it will be in between the 10D and 1D models,.. my gut tells me it will in fact occupy the exact same price point as the current 10D as digital costs continue to go down,. rather than lowet the price again (like they did with D60 to 10D) they will hold th cost about the same and just make the camera more capable.

But what do we know :D :D :D

[Tom W]

Its awefully hard to predict. On the one hand, they've been updating the digital Elph and other compact cameras rather rapidly. On the other hand, the 1D is still with us.

I think that a lot depends on tooling. I suspect that at its price point, the digital Rebel is capable of using up a good chunk of the production capacity of 6.3 MPx sensors. If they decide to make a new, larger sensor, then I would expect it to find its way into a spot somewhere between the Rebel and the 1Ds - that would be the 10D range. Look for a merging in the intermediate semi-pro range with the 1D and the 10D joining into one camera. Kind of the Elan of digitals (or perhaps the "Digital Elan").

Part of this is wishful thinking on my part. I'm looking for an 8-9 MPx camera with a 1.2 or 1.25 multiplication factor and with a reasonably rugged body that is priced like today's 10D. So naturally, my prediction weighs heavily on my desire for such a camera.

In other words, I don't have a clue what Canon might do, but I know what I want them to do. :)

[surfmonkey89]

What I'm hoping for is a new LENS, something even shorter than the 17-40.

Any chances of that happening?

If not. I just bite the bullet and buy the 17-40? Or the 16-35?

[ryleung]

I am heavily betting on the fact that Canon will put the EF-S lens mount on their future dSLRs. The 10D replacement will most certainly have it, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Cannon slapping it onto their higher-end models as well.

Naturally, a series of EF-S lens will have to follow the new cameras sporting the updated lens mount.

That's my prediction, anyway.

-Rick

[defordphoto]

PacAce wrote:
...Nikon D2H camera which has an optional attachment for sending images from the camera to a computer via wifi real time! (Didn't someone mention something about this the other day in the forum, I think it was RMFSports)?

Yes, PacAce I did mention that. Not knowing that the D2H has that capability. And I also read about it in my very quickly growing library of B&H catalogs. How ironic.

[PacAce]

RFMSports wrote:
PacAce wrote:
...Nikon D2H camera which has an optional attachment for sending images from the camera to a computer via wifi real time! (Didn't someone mention something about this the other day in the forum, I think it was RMFSports)?

Yes, PacAce I did mention that. Not knowing that the D2H has that capability. And I also read about it in my very quickly growing library of B&H catalogs. How ironic.

Good call, Jim, good call! Where have you been hiding your crystal ball?! :D

[defordphoto]

PacAce wrote:
RFMSports wrote:
PacAce wrote:
...Nikon D2H camera which has an optional attachment for sending images from the camera to a computer via wifi real time! (Didn't someone mention something about this the other day in the forum, I think it was RMFSports)?

Yes, PacAce I did mention that. Not knowing that the D2H has that capability. And I also read about it in my very quickly growing library of B&H catalogs. How ironic.

Good call, Jim, good call! Where have you been hiding your crystal ball?! :D

Yeah well and I picked the entire front row for the 1994 Indy 500 too, but still have yet to win that multi-million dollar lotto. Actually it just made sense to have that capability will all the wireless technology going on today. To heck with the CF cards, just send it to your laptop and its 80gig drive.

[Belmondo]

ryleung wrote:
I am heavily betting on the fact that Canon will put the EF-S lens mount on their future dSLRs. The 10D replacement will most certainly have it, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Cannon slapping it onto their higher-end models as well.

Naturally, a series of EF-S lens will have to follow the new cameras sporting the updated lens mount.

That's my prediction, anyway.

-Rick

As we know, any lens they bring out in the EF-S format will not be backward compatible with any existing canon EOS body, film or digital (except the present Digital Rebel). Do you interpret that as a commitment on Canon's part to smaller sensors and eventually an entirely reconfigured line of lenses for digital cameras ala Olympus E-1? Do you think they'll redesign their film bodies to accept the EF-S lenses?

Enquiring minds want to know. (borrowed from the National Enquirer)

Tom

[vvizard]

You guys who have been in this game for some years, and know some tricks. How much progress are there in the glass-department? I'm brand new in this game, so I don't know how lenses 10-20 years ago compares to today's "L" or "EX" lenses. Have the optical quality of the lenses improved dramatically, or are they pretty close to beeing "perfect" now? Perfect in the way that further improvement will be _real_ slow. They are after all bound by laws of the physics. Of course those can be bent, twisted, turned, but rarely broken.. How wide do you think they can go with their wide-angles?

If they can still push down some mm in the wide-angle lenses, I think smaller sensors are the only realistic way into the future. You might argue, but sensors are just born. In 4-5 years, we'll probably wipe our arses with the 1Ds sensor! Resolution, ISO-noise etc. This will probably be improved so dramatically the following years, that smaller sensors is the logical way to go, as there's easier to make big progress there, than there is to make full-frame corner-to-corner sharp lenses. Just the two cents from a computer-geek. The opticians will probably argue differently :)

[ryleung]

belmondo wrote:
As we know, any lens they bring out in the EF-S format will not be backward compatible with any existing canon EOS body, film or digital (except the present Digital Rebel). Do you interpret that as a commitment on Canon's part to smaller sensors and eventually an entirely reconfigured line of lenses for digital cameras ala Olympus E-1? Do you think they'll redesign their film bodies to accept the EF-S lenses?

Enquiring minds want to know. (borrowed from the National Enquirer)

Tom

If (or should I say "when"?) a new EF-S lens comes out, it'll certainly be incompatible with the existing EF mount. But what does that matter, especially if/when Canon releases new (digital) cameras featuring the same EF-S mount? Why is Canon willing to go through the trouble of a new lens mount design if they are not going to take full advantage of it? Why keep the new design exclusive to a low end (albeit mass-market) camera, when they can amortize the develop cost over a larger number of cameras?

IMO, the only thing that Canon is committed to is to make money. And if the EF-S lens might be able to help them do that, they are certainly going to give it a try. I don't see anything wrong with Canon maintaining two "separate" lines of lens mounts. EF lens will work on EF-S mounts, so new EF lens will continued to be designed. It is true that EF-S lens can't be fitted onto EF mounts, but emphasis in photography has been shifting towards the digital end for quite some time now, so the digital realm is becoming the more important turf right now. At the moment, wide-angle digital photography has not been properly looked after because of the effective 1.6 magnification factor caused by the small sensors. Going full frame on the sensor is the expensive solution. Using a modified mount seems like the more cost-effective choice to me.

-Rick

[PaulB]

Why predict when you can know?
Prediction smacks of reading the entrails, or going out picking magic mushrooms.

I know where Canon are going - at least in the near future.

There will be an updated 1D at PMA2004 which will make anything else in its' class look two years out of date (again), and let's face it the D2H isn't on general sale yet after Nikon put back the on-sale date to late November.

As for the wi-fi connection? So what? it is only by the addition of a module plugged into the camera - easy enough to duplicate on any forthcoming Canon DSLR, if Canon can see a need for it. Can it handle 8 frame/sec to a laptop though? Could be useful for remote operation where a wired cable connection is not possible (but how many of us need that?).

How do I know? By extrapolating the advances in Canon DSLRs and the release dates of the 1D/1Ds/10D/300D.
The 1D needs an update (not just to counter the D2H which is barely catching up after 2 years but as a logical progression in the technology) - the others haven't been out long enough. There will NOT be a 3D as some predict as the 10D fills that slot in the Canon line-up.
Also with the Olympics in 2004 Canon will intend to get the new 1D out to all the agencies and newspapers in good time. It will keep the 1.3x factor of the existing1D so beloved of users of long lenses.
Whatever. I expect to be placing an order sometime in March!
The EF-S is not a new mount per se but just a way to get a cheap short zoom made down to a price to match the 300D. The only addition to the lens mount is a rubber ring which prevents the EF-S lens being mounted on a normal EF body and the mirror being damaged - the 18-55mm having a longer rear protrusion and the 300d a smaller mirror. After all, all other EF lenses fit the 300D. Expect to see more EF-S lenses in the cheap and cheerful range but not higher up the scale.

[iwatkins]

My guess (not skilled enough for a prediction) would again be a 1D replacement.

I'm thinking the following:

1. Same sensor size but maybe more pixels. Either way image quality will be improved with new sensor and improved processing
2. Speed increases everywhere (shutter, writing to memory etc.).
3. Ability to take modules e.g. WiFi, Firewire, GPS etc.

I also see Canon placing some efforts towards lower cost but still quality lenses for the EF-S mount (as much as I don't want them to).

I am hoping that some effort will go into a few more wide angle zooms and primes. I'm desperate for a super wide angle zoom or prime so this is wishful thinking :)

Cheers

Ian

[rdenney]

vvizard wrote:
You guys who have been in this game for some years, and know some tricks. How much progress are there in the glass-department? I'm brand new in this game, so I don't know how lenses 10-20 years ago compares to today's "L" or "EX" lenses. Have the optical quality of the lenses improved dramatically, or are they pretty close to beeing "perfect" now? Perfect in the way that further improvement will be _real_ slow. They are after all bound by laws of the physics. Of course those can be bent, twisted, turned, but rarely broken.. How wide do you think they can go with their wide-angles?

If they can still push down some mm in the wide-angle lenses, I think smaller sensors are the only realistic way into the future. You might argue, but sensors are just born. In 4-5 years, we'll probably wipe our arses with the 1Ds sensor! Resolution, ISO-noise etc. This will probably be improved so dramatically the following years, that smaller sensors is the logical way to go, as there's easier to make big progress there, than there is to make full-frame corner-to-corner sharp lenses. Just the two cents from a computer-geek. The opticians will probably argue differently :)

Over the years, lenses have improved their performance in two primary areas: Contrast and range. Advanced coatings and low-dispersion glass get the credit, along with computer design. Lenses can have more elements now, with more radical refraction. Thus, you now have ultra-zooms, when any wide-to-tele zoom was revolutionary 15 years ago. But prime lenses are not noticeably better now than they were 20 years ago, though some of them are offered in larger maximum apertures. Thus, more zoom range and greater speed have resulted from improved designs, better coatings, and low-dispersion glass. But optical performance where these improvements aren't relevant isn't much better than it used to be.

I think that optics are mature in terms of peak performance, and we can't expect great improvements there. Thus, there's no sense in increasing pixel density much beyond where it is--cameras like the 10D with high pixel density are already limited by the optics. Improvements will have to come from larger sensors and sensors with better performance. Bigger sensors, however, get you more image information at the same pixel density, and I think that's one of the only paths of improvement. But it ain't cheap, and the question is whether the camera makers can find a way to make it cheap enough.

Rick "thinking there will be a 10D-priced full-frame sensor camera within three or four years" Denney

[CoolToolGuy]

I think the Olympics may drive the next announcement, as mentioned previously. With digital camera sales picking up the way they are, it would make good sense for Canon to exploit/expand their dominance in the professional sports journalist arena, then push the connection to the consumer cameras (even the Elphs and the A series).

All of which is one man's opinion.

Have Fun

[agit-prop]

WRT the EF-S lenses: A major factor in my decision process when switching to a DSLR from a G1 was the ability to acheive a short focal depth by virtue of the relatively long distance between the rear element and the sensor. I've seen identical photos taken using the Drebel's new EF-S lens and a comparable EX series Sigma, and the difference in DOF was staggering. The EX lens had a focal depth of perhaps 3 feet while the EF-S lens had a focal depth 2-3x deeper! The f/stop was 5.6 in both cases.

Judging from the CA and the inherantly deep focal depth of the EF-S lens, I can only conclude that Canon has specifically designed that particular lens system to appeal to the low end of the market. I don't think you'll ever see an EF-S-L lens from Canon. and although the mount can probably be incorporated into a 1D replacement at minimal cost, there really wouldn't be a point to it.

What kind of lenses will be seen in the EF-S series? Probably a longer zoom lens or 2 and possibly a couple of primes. Will Sigma, Tamron, et al make higher end EF-S lenses? Probably not...

[Tom W]

iwatkins wrote:
My guess (not skilled enough for a prediction) would again be a 1D replacement.

I'm thinking the following:

1. Same sensor size but maybe more pixels. Either way image quality will be improved with new sensor and improved processing
2. Speed increases everywhere (shutter, writing to memory etc.).
3. Ability to take modules e.g. WiFi, Firewire, GPS etc.


Cheers

Ian

OK, how about this: D-rebel and 10D price drop with some minor improvements to each as a result of experience. Picture the d-reb with the EF-s lens for about $750, and with 2 lenses (add the 55-?? telephoto), a flash, and a bag for $999 (US dollars). Now, move the 10D down to around $1100-1200 to allow some kits below $1500. Kits do sell, regardless of ones' opinion of some of the lenses that are included within them.

Then, the replacement for the 1D, lets call it the 2D, which incorporates the same size of sensor (I think its a 1.3 factor) but with the pixel density of the 10D or thereabouts to give it about 8 or 9 MPix. Make it fast and rugged and price it for just under $2000.

Pure speculation, I know, but its fun! :)

[PaulB]

Agit-Prop wrote:
WRT the EF-S lenses: A major factor in my decision process when switching to a DSLR from a G1 was the ability to acheive a short focal depth by virtue of the relatively long distance between the rear element and the sensor. I've seen identical photos taken using the Drebel's new EF-S lens and a comparable EX series Sigma, and the difference in DOF was staggering. The EX lens had a focal depth of perhaps 3 feet while the EF-S lens had a focal depth 2-3x deeper! The f/stop was 5.6 in both cases.

Judging from the CA and the inherantly deep focal depth of the EF-S lens, I can only conclude that Canon has specifically designed that particular lens system to appeal to the low end of the market. I don't think you'll ever see an EF-S-L lens from Canon. and although the mount can probably be incorporated into a 1D replacement at minimal cost, there really wouldn't be a point to it.

What kind of lenses will be seen in the EF-S series? Probably a longer zoom lens or 2 and possibly a couple of primes. Will Sigma, Tamron, et al make higher end EF-S lenses? Probably not...

This appears to fly in the face of the laws of physics and optics.
Depth of field depends upon three factors:

1/ Lens focal length
2/ Lens aperture
3/ Subject distance

Unless of course digital sensors have rewritten the textbooks as well and the rest of us haven't noticed.

What I THINK Agit-Prop means is that a P&S compact digicam has greater depth of field (than a 35mm body fitted with an EQUIVALENT focal length lens) at any given aperture because of the very short focal lengths of lenses fitted to digital P&S compact cameras, made necessary by the very small sensor size.

[Longwatcher]

Here are my predictions (read intell analysis) for the near future.

1. Canon will announce a new/upgraded camera at PMA 2004 - extremely likely. Release will be mid-March 2004 - highly likely.

1A. This camera will likely be an upgrade for the 1D - highly likely

1B. This camera will probably have a higher MP count then the 1D, but not as much as the 1Ds Thus between 4 and 11. 8-9MP sounds about right.

1B2. Extremely likely it will be a CMOS sensor.

1C. This camera will likely have a higher burst capacity then the current 1D and possibly higher then the Nikon D2H.

1D. This camera is not likely to have the wifi capability (smaller possibility it will or as an option)

1E. Price will be between 2500 and 4500. Best guess $3250 retail. - highly likely.

1F. This camera will more likely have a 1.3x FOV crop, with lesser chance but still possible of FF sensor. Call it 60/40.

Consolidation of above. Canon is likely to release a 1D upgrade at PMA 2004 which will have an 8MP sensor with at least as good, possible higher burst rate then current 1D in the $3000-3500 range with either a 1.3x or FF 35mm FOV.

2. Canon will have another SLR level camera announcement around the Sept 2004 timeframe. Most likely candidates: 10D, 1Ds, other camera. - Highly Likely

3. Canon will produce 2 to 3 new/upgrades lenses over the next year. At most one will be an EF-s version.

3A. The only likely EF-s lens will be a wider lens - personal opinion - likely. Actually producing the lens - unlikely.
[Analyst note: I see no market reason for another EF-s lens as I don't know about you, but my main grip with the 1.6x factor is I lose the wide angle FoV. Even the 16-35 is not wide enough for me on the 10D, so a wider low cost zoom would be appropriate, otherwise the existing EF lens will satisfy the need for telephoto ranges, why produce a EF-s lens in those ranges if it is not necessary.]

3B. I do expect an upgrade of the 100-400 IS with newer IS and less likely a better aperture sometime in the near future (1-4 years) and also possibly some of the primes. The rate of lens design has been pretty constant from Canon at around 2-3 per year for the past 5 years or so.

The above is my analysis of information recieved and trend analysis of Canon releases and my interpretation of what Canon percieves as photographer's wants.

Feel free to ignore.

[Trivia: my 24 year track record for WAGs stands at 75% for those things I state as likely occurrances and above, 90% for those I think unlikely. My analysis is only valid for 6 months and then starts deteriorating rapidly - we will see if I am right in Feb.]

[CoolToolGuy]

Longwatcher, I agree with your numbers 1 and 2 wholeheartedly. I think the Olympics ties in with that, to try to solidify usage by the pros at a major international event. The 1.3 issue (can't use the CF words or the flames start) is an interesting point - I think keeping it would maintain the current lens usage by the pros and provide a path for an upgrade to the 10D (which would induce more lens sales).
As for EF-S lenses, I think Canon may introduce a cheap tele-zoom for the Digital Rebel market. The EF-S model includes the fact that the EF-S lenses cannot cover a 35mm frame size, so Canon may use that to keep the cost down.
Gosh, speculating is such fun! Especially if you turn out to be right.

Have Fun

[Longwatcher]

Canon already has several cheap telephoto lenses
They have a 100-300 f4.5-5.6 for US $280,
- the 55-200 for $209 (released at same time as 28-55 EF-s lens and advertised together)

- the 80-200 for $120
and
- 75-300 variants for $155, $180, and $415.

They don't get much cheaper then that.

Short of a cheap (under $500) 200-600 I don't see why they would need/want to design a new telephoto lens for the 300D.

The wide side is where they need 1.6x lenses.
A fisheye, and a 14-28mm/35mm equivilant FOV capability are what are not existing at this time.

I could see a EF-s 10-28 lens, which would give me a 16-45mm equivilant, but I would personally design the mount for regular EF as I could really use one on the D60/10D as well.

Just my opinion,

[CoolToolGuy]

Longwatcher, you make some very good points. I would dearly love to have a lens that is equivalent to 24mm in the film format, and that means 16mm or less in the 1.6 world. So if they can do it, so much the better! Realizing, of course, that it would probably be a low quality lens.
On the other hand, the most common reaction to getting an SLR is to get more lens (length), as I think appreciation of the wide-angle view of the world does not come until you've been hooked by the bug for a while. The current crop of tele-zooms may satisfy the DRebel market, but how cheap could they make them in the EF-S model?
I really do like the thought of 1.3 coming to the 10D replacement. I see that as my next body purchase, and I would dearly love to have that wide-angle (good quality) without shelling out a pocketful of cash (14mm rectilinear).
That presents an interesting prospect for Canon as well, since the teles wouldn't have the same angle of view as they did in 1.6, and it may lead to more long tele and converter sales. Sounds like a winner all around.

Have Fun

[PaulB]

Tim,

If I may make some comments on your very perceptive post?

1. Yes

1A. Yes

1B. Yes

1B2. Yes

1C. Yes & maybe but unlikely

1D. Yes

1E. Don't know - in $ anyway

1F. Yes & No to FF (100%)

As for the rest; my LCB (liquid crystal ball) remains cloudy past February 2004 at PMA, but there is always the chance of a new lens or two being shown there I suppose.