5D Mk II or 7D is really coming in January

[pieq314]

B&H is selling 5D + 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850-$400 rebate = $2450. The 24-105mm alone is $1059, so net cost for 5D is only $1400, which is not much more than the 40D.

The reasonable conclusion is that Canon is trying to get rid of all 5Ds before a new full frame is announced (be it 7D or 5D Mk II). And I would also conclude that this new full frame camera is priced in the low $2000s, not in the low $3000s as the 5D was introduced.

[sandpiper]

B&H is selling 5D + 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850-$400 rebate = $2450. The 24-105mm alone is $1059, so net cost for 5D is only $1400, which is not much more than the 40D.

The reasonable conclusion is that Canon is trying to get rid of all 5Ds before a new full frame is announced (be it 7D or 5D Mk II). And I would also conclude that this new full frame camera is priced in the low $2000s, not in the low $3000s as the 5D was introduced.

Some dodgy calculations followed by adding 2+2 to get 7.

Firstly, your price of $1400 for the 5D is based on a package price (which is cheaper than the individual items, so each is reduced a little), then rebates, but counting the lens as FULL price and taking the discounts of both off the 5D alone, in reality BOTH are discounted and so the lens should be less, and the camera more, of the total.

I just checked my regular supplier and the 40D is £680 after cashback and the 5D is £1318 after cashback. So, rather than being "not much more than the 40D", it is still almost double the price at this store.

The "reasonable conclusion" could as easily be that B&H is simply looking to clear some excess stock now that the main christmas rush is over. Many stores (over here at least) are already discounting many lines to grab the available trade at this time of year.

If Canon was attempting to clear out 5Ds, I think my supplier would also be selling them at bargain basement prices. They (Canon) didn't bother clearing the last of the 1D II, 1DsII, 30D etc., before bringing out the replacements. the higher price of the new model allowing both to be sold side by side whilst stocks clear.

I also very much doubt that the new 5D will be as cheap as you surmise. Recent releases have been priced at around the launch price of their predecessors, so I expect the new 5D will be similar.

I really think you have jumped to conclusions based on 'wishful thinking', rather than the facts. One retailer discounting stock isn't significant, especially at this time of year.

[Palladium]

The rebate is when you add a $400+ printer to the package

[Jesse Webb]

Yes the rebate requires you to get the printer and kit. So no $1400 5D. However, there is also a separate $100 rebate on the printer which can be combined with the $400 one. If you sell off the printer and lens and collect the $500 rebates you can get the "net cost" of the 5D pretty low.

With that said, I don't see how one could conclude anything from the current 5D's price and rebate offers. I know there was a nice rebate on the camera a year ago and new camera a year later. The 5D appears to be ready for an update, but I would "guess" (not conclude) that the price will be significantly higher than the current 2-year old model.

[pieq314]

Yes the rebate requires you to get the printer and kit. So no $1400 5D. However, there is also a separate $100 rebate on the printer which can be combined with the $400 one. If you sell off the printer and lens and collect the $500 rebates you can get the "net cost" of the 5D pretty low.

With that said, I don't see how one could conclude anything from the current 5D's price and rebate offers. I know there was a nice rebate on the camera a year ago and new camera a year later. The 5D appears to be ready for an update, but I would "guess" (not conclude) that the price will be significantly higher than the current 2-year old model.

You are right and Palladium are right: you need to buy a printer. Still, it is a good price: you can probably sell the new lens on ebay and losing no more than $100. Let's say losing another $100 on selling the printer (losing $200 with $100 rebate for net loss of $100). That is still only $1600 for 5D.

The 40D at B&H is selling at $1300, or buy a printer to get $100 rebate. Since I already included losing $100 for selling the printer in the 5D calculation, it would be fair to use $1300 for 40D for comparison. So the 5D is selling at only $300 above 40D.

So I guess (not conclude) the new full frame camera would be relatively cheap.

[pieq314]

I just checked my regular supplier and the 40D is £680 after cashback and the 5D is £1318 after cashback.
The Canon 5D w/o the lens is not as good a deal as the 5D+lens.

[sandpiper]

The Canon 5D w/o the lens is not as good a deal as the 5D+lens.

I know, that was my point. You were comparing a package deal price for the 5D against a straight price against the 40D. Using that to conclude that the 5D is being discounted close to the 40Ds price, then THAT to conclude that the 5D is being replaced next month.

I was stating that you aren't comparing like with like, so the conclusion wasn't valid.

Yes, you can get the price down on a 5D by some creative purchasing. That doesn't make it 'heavily discounted' though. The price is very good at the moment and replacement probably won't be a long time coming, but the ability to get a good deal (in sale season !) doesn't mean it is "really coming in january" as you claim.

[Geoffery]

My predictions for upcoming EOS DSLRs for the next three years will be:

1st Half of 2008: EOS 450D (PMA Show 2008 )
2nd Half of 2008: EOS 3D (Photokina 2008 )
1st Half of 2009: EOS 50D (PMA Show 2009)
2nd Half of 2009: EOS 500D (Fall announcement)
1st Half of 2010: Next generation EOS-1D (PMA Show 2010)
2nd Half of 2010: Next generation EOS-1Ds (Photokina 2010)

[chauncey]

And you base that on what, Geoffery?

[sandpiper]

And you base that on what, Geoffery?

Looks to be based on the fairly regular product cycle that Canon works to. Rebel class cameras are about 18 months apart, so those dates seem reasonable, as does the 50D.

The 1D / 1Ds cycle is less easy to predict exactly as it is much longer and so has more leeway for being extended, or possibly reduced if the new offerings from Nikon cause Canon to need an updated version to deal with the competition. There will probably be an 'N' version of one or both of these in 2008, particularly the 1D III as it will help lay the AF issue to rest.

Less predictable is the 5D replacement cycle, as it is an all new class and so hasn't shown a cycle yet, although late '08 seems reasonable as it is quite old now.

All is supposition though, based on previous timings. Personally, I don't worry about what, or when, new bodies are going to be introduced. I just accept that the ones I have will be replaced with newer models at some time in the future, which will be better than the ones I have.

I am in no hurry to replace my 5D, so not concerned when the new body comes along. My 20D is still doing a good job, although I do quite like the 40D I am not in a hurry to buy one, so not concerned about a 50D at all. When my 20D dies, it will be replaced with a 40D.

[chauncey]

Well sandpiper, it's like this; I want a 5D but I don't want to buy now and have a new model come out in January/Febuary.

It would seem that you guys out there would have a functioning crystal ball.

[sandpiper]

Well sandpiper, it's like this; I want a 5D but I don't want to buy now and have a new model come out in January/Febuary.

It would seem that you guys out there would have a functioning crystal ball.

Well, the announcement you need will be in about 3-4 weeks, in the run up to the PMA show. That will tell us what is being introduced at the show. It may, or may not, include a 5D replacement - I wouldn't like to guess at the odds. If it IS announced then, it will be hitting the stores a few weeks later. The price will be quite significantly higher than that at which the present 5D is currently selling. If you delay in getting your name on the waiting list, you may find that it takes you several more weeks (possibly months) to actually get hold of one, there will probably be a very big demand.

If a new 5D isn't announced in january, you can be fairly sure that it won't be coming out until late autumn (fall). In which case, I would recommend that you get a current 5D and have one to use for the summer. You will get much of your money back when you come to sell it after the new one comes along.

Although a new one will have some new bells and whistles, maybe a faster frame rate and a couple more megapixels, the present 5D is still an amazing piece of kit which takes great images. Only you will know if the extra frills are worth paying a hefty premium for the latest gear. Not to mention waiting several weeks / months when you could be shooting with the current one tomorrow.

[chauncey]

I can wait a month.

Thanks sandpiper!!

[sapearl]

Oh boy - here we go again, I love these Crystal Ball Threads.:lol::lol: I realize that you're basing these wishes on your dreams, but it would be nice to have a little concrete basis for these predictions some time:rolleyes:. Interesting conclusions you make - I just don't see it that way though.

It would be silly for them to price it in the low $2k; no, actually stupid, since they can ask more, GET more right off the bat, and then drop the price later just like they are doing now with the current 5D.

B&H is selling 5D + 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850-$400 rebate = $2450. The 24-105mm alone is $1059, so net cost for 5D is only $1400, which is not much more than the 40D.

The reasonable conclusion is that Canon is trying to get rid of all 5Ds before a new full frame is announced (be it 7D or 5D Mk II). And I would also conclude that this new full frame camera is priced in the low $2000s, not in the low $3000s as the 5D was introduced.

[Harry®]

I'm an owner of a 10D and I was about to buy a 5D but with all this talk I think I'll hold off until at least the ending of January and see.

[sapearl]

Hello there Harry, and welcome to the forum :D.

It can't hurt to wait, especially with the big camera/electronics shows that typically come late winter and early spring. Patience costs you nothing unless you have a job or client that really demands better gear right now.

Fact is, the current 5D is a terrific bargain right now at it's low pricing. The images that come out of it easily match better MF film images. So unless you really need faster FPS, or live view or improved ISO 6400+ noise handling or other features that escape me, it's quite a buy. And it's full frame.

Remember, it's the person holding the camera, not the gear. The 5D will be "replaced" one day, but it won't be rendered obsolete for some time. Like your venerable 10D, it will get a lot of years of use.

I'm an owner of a 10D and I was about to buy a 5D but with all this talk I think I'll hold off until at least the ending of January and see.

[thatkatmat]

Well, the announcement you need will be in about 3-4 weeks, in the run up to the PMA show. That will tell us what is being introduced at the show. It may, or may not, include a 5D replacement - I wouldn't like to guess at the odds. If it IS announced then, it will be hitting the stores a few weeks later. The price will be quite significantly higher than that at which the present 5D is currently selling. If you delay in getting your name on the waiting list, you may find that it takes you several more weeks (possibly months) to actually get hold of one, there will probably be a very big demand.
.
I'm waiting til the end of January, if no replacement then there's minty new 5D with my name on it:)

[sapearl]

Minty, shiny, and at bargain prices.;)

Whatever new model comes out, if it does, will be demanding full list price. The latest and greatest always gets top dollar from the early adopters. It's usually months before any discounts start kicking in.

I'm waiting til the end of January, if no replacement then there's minty new 5D with my name on it:)

[ben_r_]

I can wait a month.

Thanks sandpiper!!

I cant wait!!!! I WANT MY 5D MARK II NOW!!!!

I ordered a 5D a few days ago just to hold me over!

[Harry®]

Hello there Harry, and welcome to the forum :D.

It can't hurt to wait, especially with the big camera/electronics shows that typically come late winter and early spring. Patience costs you nothing unless you have a job or client that really demands better gear right now.

Fact is, the current 5D is a terrific bargain right now at it's low pricing. The images that come out of it easily match better MF film images. So unless you really need faster FPS, or live view or improved ISO 6400+ noise handling or other features that escape me, it's quite a buy. And it's full frame.

Remember, it's the person holding the camera, not the gear. The 5D will be "replaced" one day, but it won't be rendered obsolete for some time. Like your venerable 10D, it will get a lot of years of use.

Maybe I'll hold off just to see how much the 5D drops in price even more.

[narlus]

I'm waiting til the end of January, if no replacement then there's minty new 5D with my name on it:)


that's what i've pretty much relegated myself too...