Canon Body Lineage..Is There A Pattern?

[FlyingPhotog]

Ok, I'm sure this is born of just needing more sleep, but stay with me on this...

F1 - MF Film Pro SLR
T90 - MF Flim "Testbed" Between Old SLR Design and EOS Style
EOS - AF Film Series
D30/60 1st "Testbed" AF Digital SLR Series
20D/1DMkII - First widely successful Digital SLRs
5D - AF "Testbed" Full Frame Digital SLR
1D/1DsMkIII - AF Full Frame Pro Digital SLR

If you accept that each of the bodies (or series) above were "Testbed" gap fillers between significant jumps in SLR and dSLR technology, is it possible that there might be a rather big jump in this possible next generation that may or may not be announced at PMA?

IOW, if there ends up being a 450D and/or a 5DMkII/6D/7D, is it conceiveable that there might be a suprising level of "Wow, didn't see that coming..." that hasn't been considered?

And yes, I freely admit to leaving out the 30D and 40D because they don't fit my conspiracy pattern. Feel free to slot them at will...

[danielyamseng]

Ok, I'm sure this is born of just needing more sleep, but stay with me on this...

F1 - MF Film Pro SLR
T90 - MF Flim "Testbed" Between Old SLR Design and EOS Style
EOS - AF Film Series
D30/60 1st "Testbed" AF Digital SLR Series
20D/1DMkII - First widely successful Digital SLRs
5D - AF "Testbed" Full Frame Digital SLR
1D/1DsMkIII - AF Full Frame Pro Digital SLR

If you accept that each of the bodies (or series) above were "Testbed" gap fillers between significant jumps in SLR and dSLR technology, is it possible that there might be a rather big jump in this possible next generation that may or may not be announced at PMA?

IOW, if there ends up being a 450D and/or a 5DMkII/6D/7D, is it conceiveable that there might be a suprising level of "Wow, didn't see that coming..." that hasn't been considered?

And yes, I freely admit to leaving out the 30D and 40D because they don't fit my conspiracy pattern. Feel free to slot them at will...

Good analysis. That means 5D replacement is a mature product?

[FlyingPhotog]

Good analysis. That means 5D replacement is a mature product?

Actually, I guess it could go either way.

A 5D replacement that's part of the current 1D/1Ds generation

-or-

A 5D replacement that "gaps" the next significant step forward

Your guess is as good as mine.

:)

[John_TX]

A FF 450D would be quite a surprise by Canon. That move would definitely be Canon pulling the proverbial "rabbit" outta the hat. Hell, even if they released a FF 7D priced around ~$1500 I'd be completely blown away.

And as I've said before, Canon could easily put a full-frame sensor in the 40D body & features and increase it's sales price a couple hundred dollars to account for the larger CMOS sensor cost.

A FF w/40D features @ ~$1500 street price would absolutely bury Nikon. Heck, Canon could even decrease the continuous drive speed (so it doesn't compete with the 1D's) and still make out like bandits.

I mean who are they kidding? People who have $4-$8k for a camera are gonna damn well spend that on a camera, regardless if there's a $2k alternative. The pro's have to have the best and that's what they get. An affordable FF will put FF bodies in more hobbyist hands who, from the start, never had any intentions of buying a $3k body, thus opening up an entirely new market.

[nureality]

I don't think a FF xxxD is in the cards for a couple years, because I don't think a FF xxD is in the cards in that time-frame either.

Canon and Nikon put a LOT of APS-C lenses in owners' hands and don't intend on stopping production on those lines of lenses. Furthermore, Sigma, Tokina, and Tamron, wouldn't like that move either. Canon is making as much if not more money on lenses these days then they have in the past, and thats at least in part due to the fact that they have EF as well EF-S lenses to sell now.

Canon is taking the business high-ground right now cuz they still have the luxury to do so, since Nikon is only now dipping its toe into the FF pool. More than likely, Nikon will be the one that drops the Low-Price FF bomb on the market, not Canon.

That said, I hope the 50D will be the last small-sensor x0D Canon. I look forward to hearing that the 60D will be the FF entry-level kit.

What I'd like to know is who will they market each model to?
1Ds MkIII is the High-Fashion/Print/"must-have the absolute BEST" Model
1D MkIII is the defacto Sports/Action Model
5D MkII is the prosumer FF Model?
40D is the prosumer Model
400D is the entry-level amateur Model

Another way to look at it would be to compare it to its closest Nikon competitor, this is trickier cuz Nikon's line-up is kinda dumb.
D3 = 1Ds Mk2 competitor(its isn't fair to compare it to 1Ds Mk3,cuz its their first try)
D2Hs = 1D Mk3 competitor
? = 5D competitor
D300 = 40D competitor
D80 = 400D/Rebel XTi competitor
D40/D40x = 350D/Rebel XT competitor

other than the D300 vs. 40D, Canon seems to be 1 generation ahead of Nikon across the board, OK, I'm biased, I love Canon.

If Canon decides to slide in some new models into the mix (as the rumor mill has been making aparent), such as the 3D/3Ds, 6D, and 7D... who will these extra models be geared to serve? In my eyes the 5D was the ultimate F.U. to Nikon at a time when Nikon was already down, that was Canon's way of kicking 'em while they were down. It actually shows Canon offering their customers a "relative" deal. When you consider that they were (up until only 5 months ago) the only player in the FF game, they didn't "need" to have a cheaper FF than the 1Ds.

Considering Nikon only dropped its first FF with the D3, its unlikely we'll see a 5D "fighter" from Nikon for a year or two. So the 5D MkII could theoretically be the D3-Killer considering it's going to likely be a FF 14-16MP Monster at a price that will beat the D3 by around $2000. I can see the ads now, "I coulda bought a D3 body, but I decided to buy a 5D Mk2 and 2 L Lenses"

Sorry my .02 was 2 pages :)

[chauncey]

I really enjoyed reading this post and the responces. But...

You erred by not mentioning the fact that Nikon must depend on others for their sensors.

How does that enter into the equation?

Also, the upper end cameras only account for about 5% of Canons' camera sales.

[simwells]

I really enjoyed reading this post and the responces. But...

You erred by not mentioning the fact that Nikon must depend on others for their sensors.

How does that enter into the equation?

Also, the upper end cameras only account for about 5% of Canons' camera sales.

With the D300 and D3 Nikon started making their own CMOS sensors.

[jam51]

To the OP, I don't think Canon is looking back on what it did 20 years ago to drive what it will release tomorrow. Some products may have turned out to be short-lived "test beds," but I think Canon would have preferred that these products sold in large quantities for extended periods. And you never know when you could get a huge surprise (like Canon ditching the FD mount).

[CyberDyneSystems]

A lot of this either I don't understand what your trying to say, or your missing info.

Lineage is this
D30- D60 - 10D - 20D - 30D - 40D (10D was first "hugely successfull" DSLR)
1D - 1DMkII - 1DMkIIn - 1DMkIII
1Ds - 1DsMkII - 1Ds MkIII
300D/Rebel - 350D/RebelXT - 400D/RebelXTi (300D was the biggest selling DSLR in history, it blew all others away in sales)
5D

IMHO, there have been three "gap fillers' in the entire DSLR history,
- D60.. one year life span, and quickly replaced by the 10D. (one could argue the 10D was the gap filler, but it filled the role much better and lasted longer and sold many more, and no one saw it as a "D60n")
- 1DMkIIn (just a MkII with a bigger LCD really)
- 30D (this should have been called a 20Dn, it was given essentially the same sort of minor upgrades over the 20D, and the MkIIn got over the MkII)

We just saw the BIG LEAPS starting with the 1DMkIII, and followed by the 40D and 1Ds MkIII. All in one year.



Ok, I'm sure this is born of just needing more sleep, but stay with me on this...

F1 - MF Film Pro SLR
T90 - MF Flim "Testbed" Between Old SLR Design and EOS Style
EOS - AF Film Series
D30/60 1st "Testbed" AF Digital SLR Series
20D/1DMkII - First widely successful Digital SLRs
5D - AF "Testbed" Full Frame Digital SLR
1D/1DsMkIII - AF Full Frame Pro Digital SLR

If you accept that each of the bodies (or series) above were "Testbed" gap fillers between significant jumps in SLR and dSLR technology, is it possible that there might be a rather big jump in this possible next generation that may or may not be announced at PMA?

IOW, if there ends up being a 450D and/or a 5DMkII/6D/7D, is it conceiveable that there might be a suprising level of "Wow, didn't see that coming..." that hasn't been considered?

And yes, I freely admit to leaving out the 30D and 40D because they don't fit my conspiracy pattern. Feel free to slot them at will...

[FlyingPhotog]

I was attempting to show that Canon are currently in a "mature phase" as it regards their dSLR lineup (although one could argue the MkIII is suffering growing pains vis a vis the sub mirror [and maybe shutter failure?] issue(s))

The current crop are established and are now well known. My speculation was merely an attempt to see if anyone else thought the next generation will bring anything significantly "from out of left field" that would qualify as "testbeds" or first generation of the next big thing (in body IS, etc...)

Just spitballin' really...

[cyrn]

We just saw the BIG LEAPS starting with the 1DMkIII, and followed by the 40D and 1Ds MkIII. All in one year.

My guess is that they were aware Nikon is up to something and have planned to stay ahead of the pack.

[sadatk]

If Canon puts out a FF 450D, my 30D will be gone faster than you can say speed racer!

[cyrn]

If Canon puts out a FF 450D, my 30D will be gone faster than you can say speed racer!

very very unlikely.

[herbe_nelson]

With the D300 and D3 Nikon started making their own CMOS sensors.
I didn't think that nikon made the cmos sensors in their D3 and D300?

I thought it was a sony manufactured sensor?

Nelson

[simwells]

I didn't think that nikon made the cmos sensors in their D3 and D300?

I thought it was a sony manufactured sensor?

Nelson

Ah I'm incorrect, just saw them going on about how it's a Nikon designed sensor, Nikon designed it and Sony manufacture them.

[danielyamseng]

Ah I'm incorrect, just saw them going on about how it's a Nikon designed sensor, Nikon designed it and Sony manufacture them.
thanks fyi. I was wondering why nikon doesn'y make their on sensor and let sony does it.It's like a well known camera maker using a third party sensor.

do you know why nikon decided to let sony manufacture it? Won't be later on Sony has the copyright and use the nikon design as a baseline and improvised it and use it on their dslr camera?

[simwells]

thanks fyi. I was wondering why nikon doesn'y make their on sensor and let sony does it.It's like a well known camera maker using a third party sensor.

do you know why nikon decided to let sony manufacture it? Won't be later on Sony has the copyright and use the nikon design as a baseline and improvised it and use it on their dslr camera?

Well Canon don't make CCD's only CMOS either.

I have no idea why though, might just be an industry they're not interested in / can order in outsourced parts easier.

[herbe_nelson]

I don't think that it is the best strategy to outsource sensors that are in two of the company's top cameras. Unlucky for them if sony decides to not let nikon have the sensors down the line :S

Nelson

[simwells]

I don't think that it is the best strategy to outsource sensors that are in two of the company's top cameras. Unlucky for them if sony decides to not let nikon have the sensors down the line :S

Nelson

Well if sony stopped making sensors for anyone else, the whole industry would end up a bit messed up, look what happened when there was just a problem with a number of sony's sensors.

[herbe_nelson]

yeh definitely :S

Go sony! *lol* :) Hopefully they will bring their cameras up and be some strong competition for canon and nikon. :)

Nelson

[danielyamseng]

yeh definitely :S

Go sony! *lol* :) Hopefully they will bring their cameras up and be some strong competition for canon and nikon. :)

Nelson
this is similiar like the swiss watch industry. swatch group wanted to to reduce no of movt to other brand.Imagine sony does something similiar:)

[CyberDyneSystems]

thanks fyi. I was wondering why nikon doesn'y make their on sensor and let sony does it.It's like a well known camera maker using a third party sensor.

do you know why nikon decided to let sony manufacture it? Won't be later on Sony has the copyright and use the nikon design as a baseline and improvised it and use it on their dslr camera?

Nikon is not in the Silicone Fab business, this is not a fault really, Canon does not fab all the circuits that get soldered to the DIGIC board,. etc..

Sensors are actually a common and sensible outsource.

It's like asking Dell to make there own CPU,. why when they can just pop in a good one from Intl or AMD.

[danielyamseng]

Nikon is not in the Silicone Fab business, this is not a fault really, Canon does not fab all the circuits that get soldered to the DIGIC board,. etc..

Sensors are actually a common and sensible outsource.

It's like asking Dell to make there own CPU,. why when they can just pop in a good one from Intl or AMD.
uh, i see. No wonder when canon has 14 bit processing, nikon and other also has it.

[danpass]

I was attempting to show that Canon are currently in a "mature phase" as it regards their dSLR lineup (although one could argue the MkIII is suffering growing pains vis a vis the sub mirror [and maybe shutter failure?] issue(s))

The current crop are established and are now well known. My speculation was merely an attempt to see if anyone else thought the next generation will bring anything significantly "from out of left field" that would qualify as "testbeds" or first generation of the next big thing (in body IS, etc...)

Just spitballin' really...







http://photography-on-the.net/forum/showthread.php?t=443508



Say in the D series?


I suspect that 21MP out of the 1DsM3 full frame is about the limit from that size. Ok, possibly 29-30 lol


Think Canon will come out with some type of medium format sensor in that body? Or can they somehow match the range and quality thru tech?


I think it would be awesome :D


Those Hasselblad pics are phenomenal (even the jpeg exports)


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