General Rumour Accuracy

[Innocence]

Hey all,

I'm just wondering what's the general accuracy of the rumours?

For 2 categories.

Cameras, and lenses.

Cheers!

Anyone actually call it pretty close a lot? Or just random hokey pokey ?

[BugEyes]

Someone is almost always almost right in thier guess as there's soo many guesses.
The last two years it has been hard to predict Canon, they have become good at keeping their secrets. I saw no accurate rumors for the 40D specs for example.

To sum it up, the general rumor accurracy have been very low about Canon gear lately.

[Feudal1]

I wouldn't put too much stock into anything being discussed here. Everyone seems to know someone "inside Canon", but the reality is that if a Canon employee did know something, and let it slip, they would most surely be putting their livelihood in jeopardy. I don't think too many folks would want to do that.

The people that know nothing are the ones talking, and those that actual know something aren't. :)

[rexspangle]

rumors are rumors no matter what topic and I believe the internet is essentially one big rumor.

[Innocence]

Fun and games!

Cheers.
Thanks for the replies.

=)

[Tee Why]

I've seen Canon "leak" camera information which bears out to be true when the model is released, but really haven't seen any leaks on lenses.

[zombieman]

For the 40D, Rafa Irusta (http://www.dsmcomunicacion.net/blog/) predicted five weeks before the announcement: 10 mpx, Sensor Cleaning, Live View, 3" LCD, sRAW, 6.5 fps (75 JPEG, 17 RAW), renewed 18-55 and announcement on Aug 23 (he was 3 days off). He also predicted for the 1D Mark III, two weeks before release: 10 mpx, Dual DIGIC III, Sensor Cleaning, 10 fps, 45 point AF.

For the 1000D: Kamerabild (http://www.kamerabild.se/) predicted three weeks before the announcement: 10 mpx, 7 point AF, 2.5" LCD, 3 fps, DIGIC III.

From these, at least getting the exact buffer size right seems more than just a lucky hunch.

Some sources get things right... three possible reasons: 1. they are in the know, 2. they make educated guesses based on their knowledge on the industry 3. they get lucky.

I think that as it gets closer to the actual announcement date, it gets harder to keep everything under wraps. After the camera is functionally ready, it gets into more and more hands, and the likeliness of information leaking out is much higher when it's still in production.

[SOT]

I would say 1% of all predictions are right. That many of the dead on predictions are nothing of the sort just actual advanced knowledge.

[Collin85]

For cameras, alot of guesses are right, but some of these guesses don't exactly take a genius to work out. For example, I could make a thread saying '5D coming out before end of this year', and I don't think anyone here would doubt me too much. But when some post extremely detailed rumours, with full specs - that's when it gets interesting. In other words, it could just be complete bollocks, or it could be reliable information from an insider. You can never be sure.

As for lenses, I'd say the rumour hit rate is quite a bit lower.

[danielyamseng]

it depend