charlesu
26th of January 2005 (Wed), 18:52
Here's a short article from Shutterbug that paints a grim picture of the industry. It's not really a prediction so much as an observation of what has been happening for several years and what is really continuing to build.
I've been trying to tell people this was coming for several years and many people denied it. Funny thing is, one of them, who lost his studio last year to this very problem, still denies it's happening. He just doesn't see it. Some of the other film bigots I know are so caught up in defending and justifying film that they missed the important market dynamics that have changed in the last 4 years. The middle guy is being squeezed out of the business. What's left is the top end and the low end. If you think you're a middle guy who's just doing well in this, you're kidding yourself. You're either in a much higher end market (you've arrived) than you know, or your pushing fate. I've seen this phenomenon shutting people down all over. Some of them still don't know what hit them. The didn't and still don't bother to differentiate themselves from Uncle Billy and his D70.
http://www.shutterbug.com/features/0105sb_futurereport/
Here is a key portion of the text:
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Portrait Photographer Forecast: Gray Skies Ahead
Some things are easy to forecast—more megapixels at lower cost, expanded dynamic range with digital cameras, faster lenses with more focal length range, etc. I’m going to forecast the future for the professional portrait photographer, and it isn’t pretty.
First, the wedding market will continue to deteriorate. It’s already in substantial decline. I believe there are two reasons for this. First, digital. As a pro, I know that it’s still easier to produce quality images with film if you’re a novice. But they don’t know that, and the ability to see the image right after capture gives them the confidence to know that they’ve “got it.” Combine that with the photojournalistic style that photographers have embraced, and you can see why many amateurs think they can handle the job. Only the very cheap and high-end photographers will enjoy success—the middle guy is gone.
In portraits, I see the same thing happening to the high school senior market. Over the last 10 years, I’ve seen more and more schools let seniors put in whatever photos they want, with “no specs.” Photographers cheered this move because it allowed them to put more “creative” images in, but as in wedding photojournalism, I believe they’ve become their own worst enemy. We hear more and more, “My friend’s mom is going to take my pictures.” She’ll take Johnny with his kayak by the river at noon and everyone’s happy. Another job lost.
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I've been trying to tell people this was coming for several years and many people denied it. Funny thing is, one of them, who lost his studio last year to this very problem, still denies it's happening. He just doesn't see it. Some of the other film bigots I know are so caught up in defending and justifying film that they missed the important market dynamics that have changed in the last 4 years. The middle guy is being squeezed out of the business. What's left is the top end and the low end. If you think you're a middle guy who's just doing well in this, you're kidding yourself. You're either in a much higher end market (you've arrived) than you know, or your pushing fate. I've seen this phenomenon shutting people down all over. Some of them still don't know what hit them. The didn't and still don't bother to differentiate themselves from Uncle Billy and his D70.
http://www.shutterbug.com/features/0105sb_futurereport/
Here is a key portion of the text:
************************************************** ***
Portrait Photographer Forecast: Gray Skies Ahead
Some things are easy to forecast—more megapixels at lower cost, expanded dynamic range with digital cameras, faster lenses with more focal length range, etc. I’m going to forecast the future for the professional portrait photographer, and it isn’t pretty.
First, the wedding market will continue to deteriorate. It’s already in substantial decline. I believe there are two reasons for this. First, digital. As a pro, I know that it’s still easier to produce quality images with film if you’re a novice. But they don’t know that, and the ability to see the image right after capture gives them the confidence to know that they’ve “got it.” Combine that with the photojournalistic style that photographers have embraced, and you can see why many amateurs think they can handle the job. Only the very cheap and high-end photographers will enjoy success—the middle guy is gone.
In portraits, I see the same thing happening to the high school senior market. Over the last 10 years, I’ve seen more and more schools let seniors put in whatever photos they want, with “no specs.” Photographers cheered this move because it allowed them to put more “creative” images in, but as in wedding photojournalism, I believe they’ve become their own worst enemy. We hear more and more, “My friend’s mom is going to take my pictures.” She’ll take Johnny with his kayak by the river at noon and everyone’s happy. Another job lost.
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