PMA 2009 speculations

[zombieman]

Facts off first :D

The PMA next year is held March 3-5, Las Vegas.

A note: this is pure speculation from a Canon user who follows news, announcements and rumors closely. I don't claim to have any insider information whatsoever. If you are looking for juicy info from "a friend of mine at Canon", or "a sports photog told me", this ain't the thread I'm afraid. :rolleyes:

What can we expect from Canon at PMA 2009?

Historically, the trend for Canon is to announce ONE new body at PMA events. Previously, they announced:
2008: 450D
2007: 1D Mark III
2006: 30D
2005: 350D
2004: 1D Mark II
2003: 10D

Canon currently has six DSLR tiers, the latest models in each are:
1000D
450D
50D
5D Mark II
1D Mark III
1Ds Mark III

Let's look at the possibilities:

The 50D and the 5D Mark II have just got announced, nothing new is going to happen here.

The 1000D was announced in June, it's likely we'll see an upgrade in 2009, but PMA seems too early.

The 1Ds Mark III will be 18 months old at PMA, I think an upgrade this early is unlikely, especially that there are better candidates.

The 1D Mark III will be 24 months old at PMA. Given its well documented problems with AI Servo, and the success of the Nikon D3 in the sports community, it's possible Canon might give it an earlier upgrade than the initially planned cycle. Possible upgrades would be: a new sensor based on the tech used in the 50D and the 5D Mark II with a megapixel bump, DIGIC IV, HD movie mode, working AF this time :lol: and a better LCD. Whether this camera would be called a 1D Mark IV or 1D Mark III N depends on the number of upgrades, I think a new sensor would definitely warrant a new Mark number (as in the case of the 1D Mark II N, it retained the sensor and the shooting speed of its predecessor).

The 450D will be 12 months old at PMA. Historically, this line had upgrades every 18 months, however, Canon broke this pattern with the 50D this year, so it is possible they would change this line to a 12 month cycle. The 500D would counter Nikon's D90 (which I expect to sell just as well as the D80 did), and Sony's possible upgrades to the A300 or the A350. Just as the Nikon D90 has it, I fully expect Sony to put HD movie mode in at least one of these cameras (Sony being a major player in the film business this looks like a natural move). The 500D would then have the latest sensor technology with a megapixel bump to 15 MP, DIGIC IV, VGA LCD and the movie mode of course.

Apart from the six current lines of DSLR bodies, there's always a possibility of Canon opening up a 7th tier. One much talked about camera would be the 3D, which would have a more professional AF than the 5D Mark II, and a higher framerate. Personally I think this is just wishful thinking at the moment, and even if it might happen eventually, I don't expect Canon to announce such a camera at this year's PMA.

As for my wrapup, this post would not be complete without a proper prediction for next year, this is what I expect (just don't quote me on it :p)

January/PMA: 500D
Summer: 2000D
Autumn: 1D Mark IV

Lenses?
I really have no idea. The lens division is notoriously hard to predict. Every year the usual suspects are wound up (you know: 24-70L IS, 100-400L IS upgrade, 400/5.6L IS etc.) and Canon have ignored these so far, so it's anyone's guess really.

[cp-Mike]

Here's to hoping that the new 1D is announced at PMA. Your analysis sounds reasonable, and I agree that the next bodies they need to refresh are the lower end XXXD and the 1D.

Not sure that they'd call it the Mark IV though. 4 is an unlucky number at least in Chinese, as it is pronounced the same as the word for death. Looking at previous Canon cameras, the G series skipped from G3 to G5, and the Sx IS series similarly went from S3 IS to S5 IS. Whether they keep up with that no-4's numbering scheme using roman numerals remains to be seen. Maybe it'll be the 1D Mark V. Or IIIn.

[gjl711]

Someone somewhere needs to announce a new sensor technology and I sure hope it's Canon. I was really hoping that the new 5D was going to be it but clearly that did not happen so I'm speculating that a new 1D MkIII whether it's called the four or something else will happen and will have a new sensor technology. Also, this new Panasonic Lumix camera looks very interesting. and small. I'm guessing that Canon too will once again follow and upgrade the 1000D to make it smaller and differentiate itself more from the xxxD line of cameras.

[AdamJL]

That's a fairly reasonable analysis. You've actually used logic, who would've though that'd be possible on these forums! ;)

I think you could be right in that PMA will bring a 500D.
And a bunch of new IXUS', a few printers, and a new calculator.

I'm a pessimist when it comes to Canon, so we'll probably see the 1D IV later on in the year, as you suggested.

[FlyingPhotog]

I think you've got it quite right.

However, since 2008 was a body-heavy year, maybe we'll see some new glass in '09?

[CoolToolGuy]

Someone somewhere needs to announce a new sensor technology and I sure hope it's Canon. I was really hoping that the new 5D was going to be it but clearly that did not happen so I'm speculating that a new 1D MkIII whether it's called the four or something else will happen and will have a new sensor technology.

It looks like Fuji wins the prize this year. . .

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0809/08092210fujifilmEXR.asp

Have Fun,

[gjl711]

It looks like Fuji wins the prize this year. . .

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0809/08092210fujifilmEXR.asp

Have Fun,Hmm.. Very interesting technology. Looks like Fuji is the only player on the block really doing anything quality wise. It will be interesting to see where the technology goes.

[MLphoto]

I just want a 2000 dollar body with movie mode. New 5D cost to much, 50D is 1400 with no movie mode. Maybe 500D will be out by then.

[DDWD10]

I wonder if the 500D will have a VGA LCD or a 461k dot LCD like in the G10...

[intruderlx]

I'm planing to buy a DSLR...maybe 500D

[MLphoto]

I hope some new lenses.

[MLphoto]

Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough, just give the camera some special features like MOVIE MODE and a upgrade AF system, etc!

[gjl711]

I hope some new lenses.100-400 replacement. Like to see a constant f/4 and an updated IS. That would rock.

[sebmour]

Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough, just give the camera some special features like MOVIE MODE and a upgrade AF system, etc!

This depends on your need since I need the 17-21MP....

[vso software]

I love my 5D mark II , but for sure, I need to renew a lot of my lens. and when I see PMA rumors, I wonder if I shouldn't wait to buy some equivalent to 24-105 L
for now, I have to order new lenses from Sigma as they seem to have better price and new ones like 24-70 2.8 USM-Like

[prentz]

100-400 replacement. Like to see a constant f/4 and an updated IS. That would rock.
I agree- as a 'birder' I'd love to see a 200-500 or a 500 'aps' lens that would cost a lot less than the 500mm L. yet would perform admirably on the 50d class cameras.

[gjl711]

I agree- as a 'birder' I'd love to see a 200-500 or a 500 'aps' lens that would cost a lot less than the 500mm L. yet would perform admirably on the 50d class cameras.
Some decent cost effective 500mm lens would be very welcome indeed.

[Collin85]

My prediction for bodies:

1D III N or 1D IV
1500D
500D

[Perry Ge]

I really wanna see some new glass from Canon - especially updates to the 50 1.4, 100-400, maybe a new slow super tele prime, and maybe updates to primes like the 35 f/2.

As for bodies, I think a new Rebel (500D) or 1D (Mark IV/IIIN) makes the most sense with regards to the timeline, but I think a new 1Ds body makes the most sense given the current market. There's nothing quite like the 1D3 (the D3 is the closest thing), but the 1DsIII needs to be updated so it doesn't get outshone by the 5D Mark II and D3x in too many respects. It feels the most 'dated' of the Canon bodies given the choices out there.

I mean, what would they do to the 1D3? Apart from improving the LCD resolution and size of the embedded JPEG, plus adding AF to live view, and maybe upping resolution a bit (though I admit I wouldn't want that) I can't think of anything I would change about this camera. It's perfect. I don't want a new AF system, and it'll take them a while to design a new one anyway - they got this one right after a while, and it just performs so well. The people who knock the 1D3 AF haven't tried the later, properly working models. Even D3 owners admit that the 1D3 AF is better.

[Collin85]

The people who knock the 1D3 AF haven't tried the later, properly working models.

I think that's part of the problem. The AF issues have been widely publicised and probably entrenched within the psyche of many potential buyers. Even if there is absolutely nothing wrong with the AF in current production Mark IIIs, there will always exist people who are suspicious and cautious about buying one "just incase". On the other hand, if Canon releases a Mark IV, it would help to bring closure to the whole Mark III period.

I can't think of much they could update on a MarK IV either, but I don't think that should matter too much. Maybe a slightly faster continuous drive and the new updated LCD. That's almost nothing, but I don't think it matters in the end. With regards to sales, I think the important point is that "it's no longer a Mark III". Sad, but I think true.

Don't get me wrong, I'd buy a Mark III in a heartbeat if I had the cash. But you can't ignore the fact that is psychology!

[condyk]

I wish it wasn't the way but there is no reason for Canon to update the likes of 400mm 5.6 L or 100-400mm IS L because Nikon has nothing at those price points - their stuff is way more expensive. So, unless Nikon are looking to introduce then don't hold your breath on Canon. I can see a 1D Mk 4 at a higher price point and a 7D which tries to compete with the D700.

[grego]

I really wanna see some new glass from Canon - especially updates to the 50 1.4, 100-400, maybe a new slow super tele prime, and maybe updates to primes like the 35 f/2.

As for bodies, I think a new Rebel (500D) or 1D (Mark IV/IIIN) makes the most sense with regards to the timeline, but I think a new 1Ds body makes the most sense given the current market. There's nothing quite like the 1D3 (the D3 is the closest thing), but the 1DsIII needs to be updated so it doesn't get outshone by the 5D Mark II and D3x in too many respects. It feels the most 'dated' of the Canon bodies given the choices out there.

I mean, what would they do to the 1D3? Apart from improving the LCD resolution and size of the embedded JPEG, plus adding AF to live view, and maybe upping resolution a bit (though I admit I wouldn't want that) I can't think of anything I would change about this camera. It's perfect. I don't want a new AF system, and it'll take them a while to design a new one anyway - they got this one right after a while, and it just performs so well. The people who knock the 1D3 AF haven't tried the later, properly working models. Even D3 owners admit that the 1D3 AF is better.

All they have to say with the MKIIIn version is that they have a slightly new AF system and a lot of the bad pub on the AF would die out (of course it would have to perform), but outside of that it would put the MKIII back in the market.

[NicolasRubio]

Please no 500D! I got my XSi less than two months ago!

[Perry Ge]

All they have to say with the MKIIIn version is that they have a slightly new AF system and a lot of the bad pub on the AF would die out (of course it would have to perform), but outside of that it would put the MKIII back in the market.
I wouldn't want them to change the AF - people don't know what they're missing...the MKIII's AF is so freaking crazy good.
Please no 500D! I got my XSi less than two months ago!
So? It doesn't make your XSi any less capable of a camera.

[MLphoto]

I actually hopes the 500D does come out, or at least canon should start a new line of cameras to compete with the Nikon D90 and Canon 40D/50D line needs to step up big time to compete with the D300 and soon D400.

Nikon is always ahead of canon now, which mean i will swich soon because i am fedz upz!

[Perry Ge]

I actually hopes the 500D does come out, or at least canon should start a new line of cameras to compete with the Nikon D90 and Canon 40D/50D line needs to step up big time to compete with the D300 and soon D400.

Nikon is always ahead of canon now, which mean i will swich soon because i am fedz upz!

Have you ever shot with a Nikon? I think the D700 is the best camera out there for the money, but if you're just basing your switch desires on internet hype I think you might be sorely disappointed...Nikon's AF is just not as zippy and smooth as Canon's, even though it has better specs, and I see you don't have any short, fast, USM primes in your lineup. Good luck finding any of those if you switch.

Nikon's merits are in the HIGH end. D300, D700, D3, D3x. AF system is good, very good, but the 1D Mark 3 smokes it ;). Their professional zooms are expensive, but very, very good, better than Canon's. Their flash system is amazing. The system is great, but pricey.

So unless you're gonna get a D700, and some of the 14-24, 24-70, 70-200, or 200-400, prepare to be either disappointed, or ready to fork out at least $5000 for a switch that'll get you improvements over your current stuff.

Believe me the 50D's AF system is just as nice as the D300's. It doesn't have 51 points, sure, but they are all cross type. The Nikon system clumps the cross types all together in the center, and you don't get cross type AF on the outside focus points. D3 users will tell you too that Canon's AF is just zippier.

Forget the latest and greatest, it's a ripoff price wise anyway. Get a 5D classic, some nice primes, and you are roooooocking.

[SF Lights]

I want a better XXD model!

[fensterbme]

I think you will see a refresh and/or an addition to the Rebel/X00D lineup with one model getting high-def video... I also think you will see a refresh of one of the 1D bodies, but I don't think it will feature HD video (while at WPPI this week I talked with a number of both Canon reps and CPS staff who were cleaning my gear who also didn't think you'd see HD video, but that doesn't mean a ton Canon keeps their field staff in the dark until the last minute)...

I think you've already seen the TS lenses updated, I don't think you will see other lenses released, but it's possible.

As to those who think Nikon is on top of things... It's not so clear cut, definately Nikon has brought their game up and has suprised Canon who had been a head for a while. But Nikon still has holes in their lens line up when compared to Canon (specifically in the high end prime department), addtionally while I do think the D700 is a nice camera (I've used it) I would still take the Canon 5DMkII over it even with it's AF short-comings... I can definately tell that I'm getting more definition out of the 5DMkII's 21Mp sensor over the classic 5D's 12MP.

Lastly at the end of the day I don't think ton of pros will change systems just because Nikon brings out some sweet gear... that said if Nikon continues to lead I think you will start to see the pros switch. I talked to a few Canon pros (that Canon features on their web site) and their contracts are up, and a few are holding off on signing up with Canon again... so Canon knows the pressure is on them to bring some stuff out. The D3X is pretty darn impressive, and if Nikon had better prime glass I think you'd see people switching over (only really speaking of the pro market).

[Perry Ge]

Too late fensterbme, I can't remember Canon ever announcing new stuff more than once pre-PMA, I think we've seen it all.

[JeffreyG]

Too late fensterbme, I can't remember Canon ever announcing new stuff more than once pre-PMA, I think we've seen it all.

I can never recall a double PMA announcement. They did it at Photokina last year though and that was quite surprising.

[Perry Ge]

On a slightly unrelated note, I love how dpreview just finished the D3x review so quickly, right after the Canon announcements and the 5DII review.

I now call BS on all of their "we're not Nikon-biased" and "it takes time to get a quality review out" bullcrap.

[JeffreyG]

On a slightly unrelated note, I love how dpreview just finished the D3x review so quickly, right after the Canon announcements and the 5DII review.

I now call BS on all of their "we're not Nikon-biased" and "it takes time to get a quality review out" bullcrap.

They never will do a 1D3 review.

I'm not sure it's so much a 'pro-Nikon' stance over there so much as being pissed at Canon. Canon does not supply DPReview pre-announcement samples with NDA's so that they can post the review quickly after the announcements. This (plus the MLU button and card opening data loss) seem to have Phil's panties all in a bunch.

Basically, Canon refused the quid pro quo.

[Perry Ge]

They can't do a 1d3 review because their rating system doesn't go up to 11.

[FlyingPhotog]

They can't do a 1d3 review because their rating system doesn't go up to 11.

Can't they just say 10 means more in this case? ;)

[Perry Ge]

Can't they just say 10 means more in this case? ;)

Either you're making a very subtle joke that completely flew over my head, or you missed the reference and need to go and watch Spinal Tap right now :p.

[FlyingPhotog]

Either you're making a very subtle joke that completely flew over my head, or you missed the reference and need to go and watch Spinal Tap right now :p.

I was going for the Spinal Tap reference...

"Can't they just make 10 louder?"
"But it wouldn't be 11..."

[hobbes2112]

Uh oh Perry...you got out Spinal Tapped! ;)

[Perry Ge]

:shock::oops:

*hides under rock*

Jay, you win....this time :twisted:

[grego]

I wouldn't want them to change the AF - people don't know what they're missing...the MKIII's AF is so freaking crazy good.



Well, they can still make it even better. It's not perfect even if their earlier issues were fixed, as some people have had issues. But then they probably aren't announcing an N so it really doesn't matter any longer.

[FlyingPhotog]

:shock::oops:

*hides under rock*

Jay, you win....this time :twisted:

Until we meet again... :lol:

[AngryCorgi]

I'm calling for a 500D with the 50D's sensor. Canon needs to sell the newly fab'd sensors, and the bottom range is how they do it.

[SF Lights]

I'm still amazed that there haven't been any DSLR's announced for PMA yet.

[gjl711]

I'm still amazed that there haven't been any DSLR's announced for PMA yet.We are still 8 days away.

[SF Lights]

Usually everything has been announced by now...

[foxesamu]

If anyone is interested, I think the D60 will be replaced at PMA... Meh. It will apparently gain the D90's CMOS sensor, but still will not have AF in the body. It will have video. :confused:

One thing of interest is that it may have a new type of built-in flash that swivels upwards, which would render the SB-400 obsolete. There will also apparently be an SB-700 release. Take this all as you want, it's from NikonRumors. I'm hoping for the D300 replacement, but not keeping my fingers crossed.

[FlyingPhotog]

If anyone is interested, I think the D60 will be replaced at PMA... Meh. It will apparently gain the D90's CMOS sensor, but still will not have AF in the body. It will have video. :confused:

One thing of interest is that it may have a new type of built-in flash that swivels upwards, which would render the SB-400 obsolete. There will also apparently be an SB-700 release. Take this all as you want, it's from NikonRumors. I'm hoping for the D300 replacement, but not keeping my fingers crossed.

I would doubt the flash replacement only because the newest flash unit is only six months (or so) old isn't it?

[foxesamu]

I would doubt the flash replacement only because the newest flash unit is only six months (or so) old isn't it?
Oh, the SB-700 would replace the SB-600. SB-900 is the massive pro flash that was introduced with the D700:

http://www.digitalcamerareview.com/assets/18710.jpg

Whereas this (http://www.nikoncapture.com/Assets/Flashes/4802-SB-600-AF-Speedlight-Unit/Views/353_4802_SB-600-AF-Speedlight-Unit_front.jpg) is the one due for replacement.

[FlyingPhotog]

Oh, the SB-700 would replace the SB-600. SB-900 is the massive pro flash that was introduced with the D700:

Ah, ok, gotcha...

I can't keep the players straight without a scorecard! :lol:

[SF Lights]

Olympus just stepped up: http://asia.olympus-imaging.com/products/dslr/e620/

Lighted buttons!

[gjl711]

Olympus just stepped up: http://asia.olympus-imaging.com/products/dslr/e620/

Lighted buttons!Looks like Olympus is the first top provide a movable LCD though.

[SF Lights]

Sony has movable LCDs.

[scorpio_e]

Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough, just give the camera some special features like MOVIE MODE and a upgrade AF system, etc!

+1 Mega pixels have gone crazy *LOL*

[fensterbme]

Canon needs to stop fricken trying to impress people with mega mixles... damnit 12 is way good enough,

+1 Mega pixels have gone crazy *LOL*

While I am firmly in the give me better low light performance and other nice stuff like an upgraded AF system, etc. I will say that I can visably see the added clarity in my 5DMkII images over my 5D.

At first I thought it was just me but I've had clients and people who follow my work on Flickr remark that my photos look crisper and sharper in the last few months and the only thing that has changed is the 5DMkII. I think the added resolution is definately part of it but also the lower noise floor at higher ISO...

[zombieman]

Thought I'd wrap up my thread with evaluating my predictions :D

- Release date: end of March instead of end of January. Two months late.
- Camera: 500D as predicted.
- Features: "15 MP, DIGIC IV, VGA LCD and the movie mode" as predicted.

As for the glass the usual suspects haven't gotten any upgrades and they released two TS-E lenses instead.

On future releases, I still maintain that the 1000D successor will come this year and the new 1D is likely before the Winter Olympics in Feb 2010.

[thelivo]

Any chance of a 60D this year? I am thinking the 500 must have put a big dent in the X0D line unless they do something spectacular there....??

[fensterbme]

Any chance of a 60D this year? I am thinking the 500 must have put a big dent in the X0D line unless they do something spectacular there....??

I don't think you will see them rush a 60D to market any faster than they would have normally... So I think it's possible, not sure it will happen.

I also don't think it puts a huge dent in the X0D line... It's basically an XSi body, with the 50D chip and a HD video function (which isn't the same as the 5DMkII), which aside from the HD function is exactly what the Rebel and X0D used to be in terms of market paring... With the RebelXT/350D you got a 20D image sensor basically but you didn't get the other goodies.

I guess the big question is how desired is the HD video function? I think initally it will have some desire, but after the reviews surface and the more general public realizes that the Rebel, D90 and even the 5DMkII may technically do Video, they certainly don't replace a camcorder, at least not yet.

.... I have only used my MkII's video a few times and other than taking small fun clips, I find it pretty useless, the focus thing makes it a non-starter for me.

[FlyingPhotog]

Thought I'd wrap up my thread with evaluating my predictions :D

- Release date: end of March instead of end of January. Two months late.
- Camera: 500D as predicted.
- Features: "15 MP, DIGIC IV, VGA LCD and the movie mode" as predicted.

As for the glass the usual suspects haven't gotten any upgrades and they released two TS-E lenses instead.

On future releases, I still maintain that the 1000D successor will come this year and the new 1D is likely before the Winter Olympics in Feb 2010.

I want to know how you take pictures one handed while patting yourself on the back? ;) Isn't IS wonderful...