New <$1000 FF camera - when?

[tkbslc]

Anyone wanna predict how long it will take for someone (hopefully Canon) to release a sub $1000 FF camera? Can it be that far off?

[punkerz123]

i feel like that won't be happening anytime soon...

My prediction. 7 years.

[jacuff]

Probably never. Guess it's possible if you take inflation out of the equation or if the US $ gets really valuable compared to the Japanese Yen.

[bobn15]

The only chance is to get a used 35mm body and a good film scanner, the rest can buy a lot of film (low ISO film though), I agree that inflation will never allow that.

[MDJAK]

I think it will definitely happen, if and only the consumer demands it. Most people are happy with the crap factor as it lengthens their glass. I for one am a FF adherent. I can stand a 1.3, but nothing greater. In that area, at least Nikon has a 1.5, which in the long end doesn't really matter as opposed to 1.6 of Canon, but in the wide end it does.

me

[Daniel Browning]

Anyone wanna predict how long it will take for someone (hopefully Canon) to release a sub $1000 FF camera? Can it be that far off?

I was amazed that Sony hit the $2k mark so fast, but I'm still going to guess at least 5 years.

[tkbslc]

I was amazed that Sony hit the $2k mark so fast, but I'm still going to guess at least 5 years.

I would say 5 sounds about right, certainly in 10. Everyone was shocked when Canon released the first sub $1000 Dslr, period, when the 300D came out in 2003. Now they are readily available as cheap as $500 new from most makers.

For those mentioning inflation, electronics very rarely inflate, so I am not sure that makes sense. Cheaper and better sensors are coming out every year. But, even if inflation occurs, lets say $1000 in todays dollars.

[c2thew]

>5 years. Full frame sensors are still pretty costly to produce.

[Chet]

I'd say about 5 years. Never is not a reasonable answer, we wouldn't have digital in it's current state if someone agreed with never.

[AngryCorgi]

Be careful when you talk about sensor cost relationships.

I read Thom Hogan's comments on dpreview's forum about the relationship between APS-C and FF being a 10x cost differential in sensor fab alone. His take is a simplified exaggeration. Even if you made the relationship exponential, you'd be closer to a 6-7x fab cost due to more material and higher fail rate, but you'd be comparing like-technologies too. For instance, if you claim a T1i sensor costs $50 to fab, you are looking at a $300-350 like-technology FF sensor. That's not going to happen in a budget camera (not soon), though, because that would be a 39MP sensor. You'd be expecting something more along the lines of a simpler 5D sensor and I'd guess you'd be looking at a 4-5x relationship in price there due to a higher successful yield rate. Of course to keep the cost down, Canon would be ditching the durable fast shutter for a budget-equivalent variant and ditching the pentaprism for a mirror-assembly. There are corners to cut that would allow a sub-$1k FF camera to still turn a profit.

Now, the chances of that occurring are...slim, at least anytime soon. The 5D2 and 5D are good-selling cameras and creation of an entry-level FF might hurt sales, as beginners would likely still be buying the even-cheaper APS-C rebels and the sales of the entry-level FF would probably only be stealing sales from the higher-profit-margin "pro" FF bodies.

[e02937]

October 13th, 2015

[Tom W]

Given the direction of the dollar these days, a $1,000,000 full frame camera might be a better prediction. :)

[AngryCorgi]

October 13th, 2015

Well, by then it might not matter.

In late 2012, we'll be seing "aurora borealis" effects in all parts of the world and most of comm-sats will be destroyed. Power transformers on the ground will be blown and everyone will be sent back in time (technologically speaking) about 125-150 years. This will be too much for many people. Fear will set in and then panic. People will do stupid things. Crime rates will rise.

Yup, we're in for some fun times.

[plasticmotif]

When the 5d was released, they were nearly breaking even. Full frame sensors are expensive.

[Daniel Browning]

Well, by then it might not matter.

In late 2012, we'll be seing "aurora borealis" effects in all parts of the world and most of comm-sats will be destroyed. Power transformers on the ground will be blown and everyone will be sent back in time (technologically speaking) about 125-150 years. This will be too much for many people. Fear will set in and then panic. People will do stupid things. Crime rates will rise.

Yup, we're in for some fun times.

Well, by 2012 it wont matter. In late 2010 we'll be seeing the floridation effects in all parts of the world and most of the tinfoil hats will be destroyed. Autobot Transformers on the ground will be blown and bird flu will turn everyone into zombies. This will be too much for many people. Fear will set in and then alien takeover.

I, for one, welcome our new zombie-alien overlords.

[FlyingPhotog]

Well, by 2012 it wont matter. In late 2010 we'll be seeing the floridation effects in all parts of the world and most of the tinfoil hats will be destroyed. Autobot Transformers on the ground will be blown and bird flu will turn everyone into zombies. This will be too much for many people. Fear will set in and then alien takeover.

I, for one, welcome our new zombie-alien overlords.

But pics of them would look soooo much better on a FF body... :cool:

[AngryCorgi]

There are many people in the industry claiming Canon is between 35% and 40% yield (it was just over 25% in 2005 with the larger-photosite 5D sensors) on 5D2 sensors. The total cost of the 8" wafers is around $2000 a pop. You can pull 20 FF sensors from one 8" wafer. That means that the range of cost for Canon to fab a 5D sensor (based on the known values) is somewhere between $250 and $285 if they can't do better than the 5D2 yield. Since I believe they likely can...

Canon themselves claim the rest of the camera accounts for less than 50% of the cost of a FF camera, so... <$500-$570 for parts... sounds feasible, economically, to pull off a $1,200 FF camera and turn a small profit.

[AngryCorgi]

Well, by 2012 it wont matter. In late 2010 we'll be seeing the floridation effects in all parts of the world and most of the tinfoil hats will be destroyed. Autobot Transformers on the ground will be blown and bird flu will turn everyone into zombies. This will be too much for many people. Fear will set in and then alien takeover.

I, for one, welcome our new zombie-alien overlords.

I wish that I were joking... :confused:

[jorkata]

New <$1000 FF camera - when?

When the 1D-series drops to $2000 - brand new.

[packetloss]

Keep in mind it wasn't all that long ago that yeilds for TFT displays were low and anyting bigger than 14" was extremely expensive. Now you can get 46" LCD tvs for less than the cost of a 19" monitor 10 years ago.

The same can be said about Intel's wafer yeilds on CPUs. They are now down to 45nm technology. It was only a year ago that they were at 90nm.

All I'm saying is don't be so quick to assume that the cost of producing a FF sensor will remain expensive.

[mikekelley]

crap factor


HA!! I love it! :lol:

[MDJAK]

Merely a typo, I promise. ;)

me

[RWatkins]

Given the current policies of the US giverment, I think the more germane question is when will the first consumer point and shoot camera be released for 1,000 USD :cry:

[mcluckie]

Why should they? There's a big market in crop sensors. And with most cameras mfg overseas, purchasing/trading with dollars is a lost value.

[e02937]

I thought I answered this question ;)

[beeng]

I highly doubt they will release a cheap FF any time soon. Why would they? They've created a whole new line of lenses specifically designed for crop sensors. A company wouldn't move in this direction unless they were planning on keeping the format around for a while :p

[CTKP]

The same can be said about Intel's wafer yeilds on CPUs. They are now down to 45nm technology. It was only a year ago that they were at 90nm.

All I'm saying is don't be so quick to assume that the cost of producing a FF sensor will remain expensive.

Full frame sensors are 36mmx24mm. Shrinking the size of process on which they are built doesn't effect how many they can fit on a wafer.

[packetloss]

Full frame sensors are 36mmx24mm. Shrinking the size of process on which they are built doesn't effect how many they can fit on a wafer.

Agreed, die size won't affect the quantity per wafer, however, it could affect sensor resolution.

In any case I'm just pointint out that it's a matter of yeilds AND fabrication improvements. These improvements happen more frequently than you might think.

Just because something is expensive (or impossible) today doesn't mean it will be in the near future.

There are some products that are exceptions to these ongoing improvements, like guitars that are made from semi exotic woods from declining forests. Fortunately for us camera sensors aren't one of them. At least not yet.

[Blue S2]

Given the current policies of the US giverment, I think the more germane question is when will the first consumer point and shoot camera be released for 1,000 USD :cry:

This year...Leica X1 compact...$2,000.

[tkbslc]

I highly doubt they will release a cheap FF any time soon. Why would they? They've created a whole new line of lenses specifically designed for crop sensors. A company wouldn't move in this direction unless they were planning on keeping the format around for a while :p

Which company? The crop lens offering by Canon are weak at best. You have some cheap kit zooms, one macro prime that could have just as easily been a FF lens, and a good sharp standard zoom that has poor build. I think there is only one lens that people would miss and all that would take was a 24-70L IS to make people forget.

[beeng]

Which company? The crop lens offering by Canon are weak at best. You have some cheap kit zooms, one macro prime that could have just as easily been a FF lens, and a good sharp standard zoom that has poor build. I think there is only one lens that people would miss and all that would take was a 24-70L IS to make people forget.
If we use Canon as the example they are bringing out some darned nice lenses for crop sensors... the 10-22 for example is superb quality. Comparable to the 17-40 4L. It's unlikely that they will make EFS teles as the high quality EF teles are already usable on the crop sensors.
I'm just saying that from a business perspective all signs are pointing to crop sensors sticking around for quite some time.

[cccc]

Why not make a rebel equiv. FF camera?
1fps, 2 inch lcd, plastic body, no top lcd or any of that jazz.
Just a nice big 10mp sensor.

Target audience? Students would dig it. Street photographer looking for a lighter-weigh cheaper FF camera that gives them those extra stops they may need over a crop body.
idk... sounds like a cool idea.

[Daniel Browning]

Why not make a rebel equiv. FF camera?
1fps, 2 inch lcd, plastic body, no top lcd or any of that jazz.


Two reasons. First, if the primary cost was "any of that jazz", then removing them would reduce the cost of the body significantly. But most of those aren't the primary cost. They would only shave $100 or $200 off. If you're paying an extra $2,500 for the sensor, you might as well pay another $200 to get a slightly better body.

Second, anytime you add or remove a feature, it has several effects:

Adding features increases cost.
Removing features decreases cost.
Decreasing cost may allow lower prices.
Lower prices increase sales.
Removing features decrease sales.
Adding features increase sales.For example, say going from 3" LCD to 2" LCD takes $100 (4%) off the retail cost of the camera. The only way for it to be a good move would be if the number of people who are enticed by a 4% price savings is greater than the number of people who like the 3-inch LCD.

Many products are not priced based on cost, anyway, but for product segmentation. For example, Canon 5D2 and 1Ds3 have the same resolution, and very different bodies (AF, etc.). Nikon, on the other hand, has the same bodies (D3X and D3), but very different resolution. They each chose a different and arbitrary method to segment markets to extract the highest profit possible. My point is this: just because cameras with fewer features have lower prices doesn't mean they actual cost the manufacturer that much less to make. Often it is just a different margin.

[sebmour]

it's going to take some time since a FF sensor is 6 time more expensive to build.

SOny is trying that with the 850 to get more aggressive against their competitors.

[Shamir]

its just matter of canon making a 5DIII ..

Classic 5Ds will go used about 900-800.. just like the 40D did.. it was at around 1200-1300 when it came out.. now its running on the 600s..