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Thread started 13 Feb 2017 (Monday) 09:11
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Nikon is in Deep Doggie Stuff

 
mystik610
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Feb 15, 2017 18:01 |  #16

Tom Reichner wrote in post #18274771 (external link)
.

The way to foster long-term brand loyalty amongst the most serious photographers is to get them to buy lots and lots of your high-end lenses. Sony has failed to do this because of their reluctance to make a very deep and diverse lineup of world-class native lenses for their full frame mirrorless system. The way they have positioned their product lineup in the marketplace, it will make it very easy for their mirrorless customers to jump ship once something better comes along.
.
.

Actually given that the FE mount is 3 years old, Sony has actually put together a pretty comprehensive lens line-up covering everything from the UWA focal lengths up to 300mm. The glaring omission is the super-telephoto stuff that sports and wildlife guys use, but it seems that they're targeting a very wide audience and the outlying excluded market is the sports and wildlife guys...probably because frankly, mirrorless AF hasn't up until recently up to the task of shooting sports and wildlife.

There definitely is an opportunity cost associated with Canikon not releasing a full-featured mirrorless body (sorry EOS-M5...you're still crippled compared to your competitors). Every year they stay out of the mirrorless market, Sony further cultivates this market for themselves...and anecdotally speaking, though most of us started with the intention of simply adapting Canon glass, I'd say the majority of Sony mirrorless shooters eventually switch to shooting native glass. (I no longer use any Canon glass myself).

But its a tough proposition for Canikon...a full-featured mirrorless body and corresponding lenses might allow them access to the one camera segment actually growing, but at the expense of cannibalizing sales from their bread and butter DSLR's. This is likely why Nikon ditched the DL. At an aggregate level across all product, given the cost of R&D, they could reasonably be in a worse position in the short-term.

Having worked in finance my entire professional career though, I've seen too many times where chasing financial performance in the short-term has set companies up for failure in the long-run. Very often its crucial to spend/lose money in the present to set yourself to succeed over the long-haul, because its very hard to catch up when the market has moved on without you. Opportunity cost is a real thing, but something rarely considered....


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Wilt
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Post has been last edited 10 months ago by Wilt. 6 edits done in total.
Feb 15, 2017 18:20 |  #17

bobbyz wrote in post #18274739 (external link)
Not sure why Canon or Nikon not release a nice Mirrorless.

gjl711 wrote in post #18274747 (external link)
Especially since SLR sales have fallen so much and mirrorless seems to be holding rather steady at about 3.1m units yearly

Tom Reichner wrote in post #18274771 (external link)
.
Perhaps Canon and Nikon look at that 3.1m units, calculate what portion of that they would be selling if they had top-shelf Mirrorless offerings, and realize that the profits from those sales would not be enough to offset the R&D costs.

Well, it seems that Canon is getting back into the mirrorless game after all. I got an email from Canon talking about the M6, the 77D, and the T7i.
The M6 is basically the Canon M5 in a slightly smaller body, and like it’s predecessor M3, it works with Canon’s meager EF-M line of lenses for Canon mirrorless cameras.

What we have no insight about...

  • The market flattened out for Sony after a few years...Why?!
  • Is the entire mirrorless market nearly 'topped out' at 3.1M units, or will it grow significantly with Canon/Nikon back in the mirrorless game?!

  • We might end up (assuming that Nikon also enters the fray...although this now seems less likely with the recent news about Nikonconcentrating on profit) with Sony and Canon and Nikon all having some piece of a 4 Million (or whatever marginally larger unit volume) total market.



The dSLR market might just continue to shrivel up, until it has a market share not too different from a similarly sized (yet not much larger than today) mirrorless market

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gjl711
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Feb 15, 2017 18:53 |  #18

Wilt wrote in post #18274891 (external link)
...
  • Is the entire mirrorless market nearly 'topped out' at 3.1M units, or will it grow significantly with Canon/Nikon back in the mirrorless game?!...
  • The mirrorless looks to be very steady at a bit over 3m a year. [QUOTE]

    2012 3,956,602
    2013 3,305,798
    2014 3,289,278
    2015 3,344,906
    2016 3,158,735


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    Wilt
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    Feb 15, 2017 18:54 |  #19

    gjl711 wrote in post #18274932 (external link)
    The mirrorless looks to be very steady at a bit over 3m a year.

    2012 3,956,602
    2013 3,305,798
    2014 3,289,278
    2015 3,344,906
    2016 3,158,735

    And so one has to ask, "Why has it NOT grown?" dSLRs sales have plummeted, yet mirrorless has apparently not taken ANY unit volume away from dSLR...why not? Mirrorless unit volume is DOWN 20% from 2012.


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    gjl711
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    Feb 15, 2017 19:39 |  #20

    [QUOTE=Wilt;18274934]

    gjl711 wrote in post #18274932 (external link)
    The mirrorless looks to be very steady at a bit over 3m a year.

    And so one has to ask, "Why has it NOT grown?" dSLRs sales have plummeted, yet mirrorless has apparently not taken ANY unit volume away from dSLR...why not? Mirrorless unit volume is DOWN 20% from 2012.

    And SLR sales is down nearly 50%
    2012 16,200,451
    2013 13,825,569
    2014 10,549,890
    2015 9,709,093
    2016 8,449,043

    As to why it hasn't grown, it could be that both Nikon and Canon simply are not taking it seriously. All of Canon's mirrorless submission have been laughably bad with even their entry level cameras performing better.. It woulf be interesting to see what would happen if they too the 80D feature set and performance and put it into a ML body. Then support with a few more prime lenses giving a high performance camera in a nice small package.


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    Wilt
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    Feb 15, 2017 22:23 as a reply to gjl711's post |  #21

    This interrelationship of the demise of camera unit sales can be endlessly debated by those of us not firmly entrench within the industry and have no access to geographic sales trends and listening to focus groups convened in order to better understand what is happening among consumers. Even within the industry itself they debated the whys and wherefores of different observations, and they have access to a lot more data than you or I. So it a bit of a moot exercise for us to try to outguess the real experts.

    Suffice it to say that there does not appear to be a direct relationship between the relative success of mirrorless vs. the rapid downfall of SLR...we only know that BOTH are falling in numbers of unit sales. One would expect that in face of a rapid fall of dSLR should be accompanied by a rise of mirrorless, not a drop of mirrorless, so the relationship is not a simple one. Via POTN we do see witness to some 'conversion' of dSLR to mirrorless among those looking for the perceived benefits of mirrorless, yet we also see conversions back to dSLR among those who discovered that the switch was 'not for them', too. Most of the mirrorless users that I have seen among acquaintances are those who never owned a dSLR...so they would not have inflated the number of dSLR sales in the past. Certainly a certain amount of sales volume is due to improvements of user interface and other shortcomings that were identified in the first few years of mirrorless, whereas that evolution is well past for dSLR and the current dSLR 'upgrade' is more in the area of pixel count or video features rather than user interface improvement. Some of the churning of the dSLR market is past and some see no reason to trade in a 4 year old (or even 8-10 year old!) dSLR simply for more focus points or more pixels. I don't think the mirrorless product maturity is quite at the same level. And in spite of the fact that Nikon uses Sony's superb sensor does not seem to be bailing them out from their sales woes.


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    gjl711
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    Feb 15, 2017 22:45 |  #22

    Just for fun, fixed lens cameras really fell off the cliff.
    2008 110,070,168
    2009 95,952,937
    2010 108,576,298
    2011 99,830,469
    2012 77,982,104
    2013 45,708,286
    2014 29,595,240
    2015 22,341,458
    2016 12,582,092


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    gjl711
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    Feb 15, 2017 22:49 |  #23

    Wilt wrote in post #18275118 (external link)
    ... and have no access to geographic sales trends ...

    BTW, CIPA (external link) does give a geographic breakdown.


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    mystik610
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    Post has been edited 10 months ago by mystik610.
    Feb 16, 2017 06:33 |  #24

    The sales numbers show that mirrorless sales are relatively stable and that DSLR's are falling significantly. There's a correlative relationship there, but its very hard to draw a causal relationship.

    The camera market as a whole enjoyed a huge boom as the simultaneous rise of digital cameras and social media brought a lot of new customers into the market for cameras, and they bought cameras across all product lines. Basically the people who were once buying disposable cameras started buying digital cameras, and it allowed the likes of Canon and Nikon to grow significantly in a relatively short period of time.

    The rise of smartphones, which provide the perfect synergy of taking and sharing photos in a single device, is effectively removing the 'disposable camera' customer segment from the market for stand-alone cameras and the market as a whole is simply reverting back to the old state where cameras are basically niche cameras. So there is a future state for the likes of Nikon, Canon, Sony, et al, but there will be some hurting until the market stabilizes again.

    As for whether mirrorless cameras are necessarily stealing sales from DSLR's...very hard again to draw a causal relationship. We do know that mirrorless sales are taking a larger proportion of total sales over time (it went from a 3:1 ratio to a 2:1 ration in 2016), but its very hard to conclusively say that people buying mirrorless cameras would have necessarily bought a DSLR if there was no other alternative. My take is that DSLR's have simply run out steam in terms of innovation, and for those few that are still shooting on ILC cameras, there is very little reason to upgrade to the latest and greatest models, whereas mirrorless cameras are improving leaps and bounds between generations, so there is a lot of incentive to pick up the newer models. At some point mirrorless technology will mature as well....of course at that point, the performance of mirrorless cameras will meet/exceed their DSLR counter-points...in many aspects we are already there so it will be interesting to see how the tides change over the next couple of years.


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    Intheswamp
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    Feb 16, 2017 07:57 |  #25

    Tom Reichner wrote in post #18272412 (external link)
    .

    Hmmm......so this is very startling, yet it is not surprising. I am trying to wrap my head around that.

    .

    Hmmm, maybe it's like walking through a horror house on Halloween night with horrible, misshapened, tortured creatures jumping out to scare you with chainsaws and decapitated heads....it's when you know some jerk is going to jump out of the shadows and scream in your ear (startling) but it's not surprising (since that's part of a horror house and you knew it was coming). The *really* surprising thing is that you suddenly realize that you're actually walking through a horror house. :twisted: :rolleyes: Thankfully, I shoot Canon. :-P


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    Post has been edited 10 months ago by joedlh.
    Feb 16, 2017 08:06 |  #26

    I am by no means a marketing expert. From where I sit, there was a bump in SLR sales when casual photographers wanted a "professional" camera and they ended up in over their heads because they had a point-and-shoot mental set. For a while there was a flurry of "My SLR is broken" questions on forums from users who changed a setting and didn't know what they did or how to undo it. Bridge cameras were popular because they had the look of a more "professional" camera, but suffered because they still had the tiny sensor of a point-and-shoot. If I were a betting man, I would say that the mirrorless sales are pushed by those demographics and what we're seeing is another bump.


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    bumpintheroad
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    Feb 16, 2017 08:56 |  #27

    All I can say is I was looking forward to the DL24-85. I really think it could have been the best advanced point-and-shoot on the market, if only Nikon could have shipped it. Not sure if it would have helped Nikon's bottom line but it would have made me happy. :)


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    Perfectly ­ Frank
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    Feb 16, 2017 09:18 |  #28

    bumpintheroad wrote in post #18275375 (external link)
    All I can say is I was looking forward to the DL24-85. I really think it could have been the best advanced point-and-shoot on the market, if only Nikon could have shipped it. Not sure if it would have helped Nikon's bottom line but it would have made me happy. :)

    My feelings exactly.


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    Wilt
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    Feb 16, 2017 10:37 |  #29

    mystik610 wrote in post #18275294 (external link)
    The sales numbers show that mirrorless sales are relatively stable and that DSLR's are falling significantly. There's a correlative relationship there, but its very hard to draw a causal relationship.


    Thank you, very well expressed.
    Just like there is a drop in kindergarten enrollment in Palo Alto, and there is a drop in kindergarten enrollment in San Francisco. But there is no causal relationship between the two.
    It seems that the decline in Palo Alto has been steeper than the decline in San Francisco...should one conclude that families are moving from Palo Alto to SF, which explains why SF has a smaller decline in Kindergarten enrollment?!

    The reasons for the fall in Palo Alto reflect the recession decline in birth rate, whereas the fall in San Francisco reflects a combined result of both the recession decline in birth rate AND the fact that families are leaving San Francisco to the high tech singles who pay absurd prices for rental housing, making it unaffordable for families to stay (especially when the SF public schools are often so poor in quality). Yet although families are exiting SF (but not Palo Alto, which is a nicer family environment than a major city) the drop in Kindergarten enrollment is greater in the area where fewer families are leaving!

    mystik610 wrote in post #18275294 (external link)
    The camera market as a whole enjoyed a huge boom as the simultaneous rise of digital cameras and social media brought a lot of new customers into the market for cameras, and they bought cameras across all product lines. Basically the people who were once buying disposable cameras started buying digital cameras, and it allowed the likes of Canon and Nikon to grow significantly in a relatively short period of time.

    The rise of smartphones, which provide the perfect synergy of taking and sharing photos in a single device, is effectively removing the 'disposable camera' customer segment from the market for stand-alone cameras and the market as a whole is simply reverting back to the old state where cameras are basically niche cameras. So there is a future state for the likes of Nikon, Canon, Sony, et al, but there will be some hurting until the market stabilizes again.

    As for whether mirrorless cameras are necessarily stealing sales from DSLR's...very hard again to draw a causal relationship. We do know that mirrorless sales are taking a larger proportion of total sales over time (it went from a 3:1 ratio to a 2:1 ration in 2016), but its very hard to conclusively say that people buying mirrorless cameras would have necessarily bought a DSLR if there was no other alternative. My take is that DSLR's have simply run out steam in terms of innovation, and for those few that are still shooting on ILC cameras, there is very little reason to upgrade to the latest and greatest models, whereas mirrorless cameras are improving leaps and bounds between generations, so there is a lot of incentive to pick up the newer models. At some point mirrorless technology will mature as well....of course at that point, the performance of mirrorless cameras will meet/exceed their DSLR counter-points...in many aspects we are already there so it will be interesting to see how the tides change over the next couple of years.

    All good observations, I particularly agree on the points made in the last paragraph. Less innovations causing less market activity in dSLRs, wheres mirrorless vendors are still trying to figure out good vs. bad menu designs, etc. and still getting various kinks out of mirrorless designs such as AF speed and viewfinder refresh rates. After all, Canon and Nikon and even Olympus are traditional camera companies, whereas Sony and Panasonic and all the other vendors are 'consumer electronics' companies who are newcomers to 'good photographic camera design'


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    davidfarina
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    Mar 06, 2017 04:49 |  #30

    Wilt wrote in post #18274934 (external link)
    And so one has to ask, "Why has it NOT grown?" dSLRs sales have plummeted, yet mirrorless has apparently not taken ANY unit volume away from dSLR...why not? Mirrorless unit volume is DOWN 20% from 2012.

    Because smartphones are getting better cameras these days. Simple as that. Practically of all people I know there are 3 kinds:

    5% photographers like me, mostly amateurs who see photography as a serious hobby / pro photographers
    20% people who appreciate a good camera and are willing to spend a few hundreds for a canon 700D or a Panasonic Lumix etc
    75% nahh, imma just take my phones camera


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