My Musings on the Future!

[FlyingPhotog]

Originally Posted by tkbslc

I think DSLR is heading to purely FF and everything else will be mirrorless. It will be a slow transition (10 years?), but DSLR is probably going "Pro" only.

I'm inclined to agree...

[andrikos]

Originally Posted by KenjiS

Canon uses odd numbers historically though...

IE, in film there was the Elan 7, EOS 3, EOS 1, there was also an EOS 5.... but no EOS 6..

So the problem here is what would a low end FF body be called...

i dont think there will ever be an EOS 3D because people are idiots and someone will buy it thinking it takes 3D images...

How about EOS 5.5D?

That's a pretty odd number, no?

[andrikos]

Originally Posted by tkbslc

I think DSLR is heading to purely FF and everything else will be mirrorless. It will be a slow transition (10 years?), but DSLR is probably going "Pro" only.

So Canon will be abandoning ANOTHER line of lenses (EF-S)?
People will LOVE that!

[tkbslc]

Originally Posted by andrikos

So Canon will be abandoning ANOTHER line of lenses (EF-S)?
People will LOVE that!

The new EOS-M mount adapts EF-S lenses just fine with no loss of function. And to be honest, there's only like 5-6 EF-S lenses anyone would be terribly worried about losing anyway.

But I was more speaking on the industry as a whole.

[FlyingPhotog]

Originally Posted by andrikos

So Canon will be abandoning ANOTHER line of lenses (EF-S)?
People will LOVE that!

I take it you weren't around for the migration from FD to EF?

[andrikos]

Originally Posted by FlyingPhotog

I take it you weren't around for the migration from FD to EF?

I'm assuming you know I was being sarcastic...
i.e. People will NOT love that! They'll be pissed off like back in '87...

[FredM]

There is no reason to kill off the EF-S and doing it would put major distrust into Canon customers.

The APS-C sensor is far from done, the recent models have just been more about adding features consumers want (live view focus).

The market might get slightly narrowed or even crossed up, but I doubt they would plan to kill it.

[RWatkins]

Originally Posted by FredM

There is no reason to kill off the EF-S and doing it would put major distrust into Canon customers.

The APS-C sensor is far from done, the recent models have just been more about adding features consumers want (live view focus).

The market might get slightly narrowed or even crossed up, but I doubt they would plan to kill it.

I think the point is that APS-C in a Single Lens Reflex model is a fading into the sunset. Also, they do not need to kill EF-S, they could just make the XXXD line into a mirrorless line that can take EF-S and EF lenses w/o an adapter.

[FredM]

Originally Posted by RWatkins

I think the point is that APS-C in a Single Lens Reflex model is a fading into the sunset.

I don't see that as possible.

The cheapest FF Canon makes costs 3500 bucks. Even if they offer one for 2K that is still not close to a 1K 60D or a $1400 7D.

On the cheap side, if I don't care about size I would always get a cheap Rebel over any mirrorless. Lack of a VF, smaller size being harder to handle with larger lenses, less buttons and dials. Not to mention we are assuming these new sensors will continue to improve in focusing significantly.

So best case scenario for MILC is
1. Sensors are equal to SLR focusing
2. EVF equal optical
3. FF sensor prices drop SIGNIFICANTLY

You would still have people that want budget DSLR cameras.

[KenjiS]

Originally Posted by FredM

There is no reason to kill off the EF-S and doing it would put major distrust into Canon customers.

The APS-C sensor is far from done, the recent models have just been more about adding features consumers want (live view focus).

The market might get slightly narrowed or even crossed up, but I doubt they would plan to kill it.

That said i dont see any NEW additions to the EF-S line being made, at least not very many, Mostly updates of older models... The only lens i see being a conceivable addition is some kind of fast prime, like a 35mm f/1.8 STM for those of us who want a REAL 50mm equivalent...

[watt100]

Originally Posted by KenjiS

That said i dont see any NEW additions to the EF-S line being made, at least not very many, Mostly updates of older models...

that's what it looks like.

[ching]

They force us to buy EF lens if we want new stuff!
Look how often L lens get refresh while EF-S left in dust

Originally Posted by KenjiS

That said i dont see any NEW additions to the EF-S line being made, at least not very many, Mostly updates of older models... The only lens i see being a conceivable addition is some kind of fast prime, like a 35mm f/1.8 STM for those of us who want a REAL 50mm equivalent...

Originally Posted by watt100

that's what it looks like.

[jorkata]

Originally Posted by KenjiS

... as of right now, its more economical to slot in a full frame sensor into a body in this price class as opposed to develop an APS-C sensor capable of outperforming the current ones....

... is APS-C dead? No, I just believe its time is over in the $1600+ price range, The D7000 I think was the first warning of this ...

My thoughts exactly.

APS-C is not dead at all but the time of $1600+ APS-C cameras has indeed passed.
Going forward, only FF models will be able to command such prices.

The thing is, I don't see FF DSLRs dropping below $1500 in the next ten years (if ever).
A FF Rebel for $1000 is not happening soon. Sorry .
Instead, APS-C DSLRs will continue to 'live' in the lower DSLR tier at $800-$1300.

The market would still demand that these are very capable cameras, though.
So, I fully expect the 70D, when released, to match and even exceed Nikon's D7000 in capabilities - while priced at no more than $1300.

Regarding EF-S lenses: similarly to expensive APS-C DSLRs, expensive EF-S lenses are doomed too, of course.
So, we've seen the best of the EF-S lens lineup.

[watt100]

Originally Posted by jorkata

The thing is, I don't see FF DSLRs dropping below $1500 in the next ten years (if ever).
Thus, APS-C DSLRs will continue to 'live' in the lower tier at $800-$1300.

For a time the 5D2 was on the CLP program for $1,407

[jorkata]

Originally Posted by watt100

For a time the 5D2 was on the CLP program for $1,407

Right. You can also buy a used 5D classic for below $1000.
So, I guess we are living in the era of sub-$1000 FF already .