Canon Digital Photography Forums  

Go Back   Canon Digital Photography Forums > 'Sharing Knowhow' section > Photography Industry News > Rumors > Lens Rumors and Predictions
Register Rules FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read



Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 14th of August 2012 (Tue)   #1
andrikos
User is banned from forums
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 1,802
Default Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

So I was working on the Excel spreadsheet for the thread in my signature and I saw an extremely interesting trend...

The Canon UWA Zoom in all its variations since the FD days in the '70s has been updated every 5-6 years like clockwork:

FD -> new FD = 6.2 years
new FD -> EF = 5.5 years
EF -> EF USM = 6.5 years
17-35 -> 16-35 = 5.7 years
16-35 -> 16-35 II = 5.3 years

As of today (August 2012) we are 5.4 years from the release of the 16-35L II

If history is any indication here (and it looks strong) expect a new 16-35L III to be released by the end of the year.

Also, given the pricing history of the lens (230,000 Yen same as the 24-70L II) I expect it to remain the same for the new model.
Of course, given the crappy exchange rate for the USD, expect the US price to be around the same as that of the 24-70L II ($2,300)

To summarize:
Release date: by Dec 2012
Price: 230,000 Yen or $2,300.


You heard it here first!
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 16-35.jpg (128.6 KB, 568 views)

Last edited by andrikos : 15th of August 2012 (Wed) at 02:54.
andrikos is offline   Reply With Quote
This ad block will go away when you log in as member
Old 14th of August 2012 (Tue)   #2
boingy
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 1,052
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

or they may come out with a 14-24 f/2.8L that will take filters!
__________________
Flickr
Blog
boingy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14th of August 2012 (Tue)   #3
tkbslc
Cream of the Crop
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Utah, USA
Posts: 24,370
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

I've already seen rumor of 14-24 f2.8 coming soon.
__________________
Taylor
Galleries: Flickr
60D | ELPH 330 | iPhone 5s
tkbslc is offline   Reply With Quote
This ad block will go away when you log in as member
Old 14th of August 2012 (Tue)   #4
Shadowblade
Cream of the Crop
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 5,120
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

We've all seen that rumour for years. I'm not holding my breath.

But a corner-to-corner sharp, distortion-free 14-24 with no purple fringing would be a godsend.

Even if it were a smaller lens and f/4 rather than f/2.8 so that it would be able to take regular-sized filters rather than super-sized ones.
Shadowblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #5
andrikos
User is banned from forums
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 1,802
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

So, you are all suggesting that the 16-35 will be replaced by the 14-24?
Interesting...

Nikon has both and I'm sure Canon will have both also if they (hopefully) release a 14-24. And f/4 makes a lot of sense too to keep costs down.

But that will be independent of the 16-35 release in my opinion.
Maybe they'll release both by the end of the year?
andrikos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #6
tkbslc
Cream of the Crop
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Utah, USA
Posts: 24,370
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Maybe they will keep both, but I don't know about a NEW 16-35. I could see them kicking the 16-35 II down the road like they have the non-IS 70-200L's.

If they can make a 14-24 that does filters, then there wouldn't be much need for both.
__________________
Taylor
Galleries: Flickr
60D | ELPH 330 | iPhone 5s
tkbslc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #7
Shadowblade
Cream of the Crop
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 5,120
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by andrikos View Post
So, you are all suggesting that the 16-35 will be replaced by the 14-24?
Interesting...

Nikon has both and I'm sure Canon will have both also if they (hopefully) release a 14-24. And f/4 makes a lot of sense too to keep costs down.

But that will be independent of the 16-35 release in my opinion.
Maybe they'll release both by the end of the year?
Not replaced.

A 14-24 and a 16-35 serve very different purposes, and are likely to be used by very different types of photographers.

A 14-24 is a specialised lens, likely to be used by landscape photographers and artistic types to achieve effects which can't be done using longer lenses. Corner-to-corner sharpness on high-resolution sensors (looking to future 50MP-or-higher sensors), minimal distortion and minimal chromatic aberration are paramount. Focus speed, etc. is not. Even f/2.8 may not be essential, although it is nice to have when shooting landscapes at night.

A 16-35 is a photojournalist's lens. Focus speed and central sharpness is vital. F/2.8 or don't bother. Corner sharpness and distortion don't matter so much. Due to its less stringent optical design requirements, it is likely to be much cheaper than a 14-24.
Shadowblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #8
andrikos
User is banned from forums
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 1,802
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowblade View Post
Not replaced.

A 14-24 and a 16-35 serve very different purposes, and are likely to be used by very different types of photographers.

A 14-24 is a specialised lens, likely to be used by landscape photographers and artistic types to achieve effects which can't be done using longer lenses. Corner-to-corner sharpness on high-resolution sensors (looking to future 50MP-or-higher sensors), minimal distortion and minimal chromatic aberration are paramount. Focus speed, etc. is not. Even f/2.8 may not be essential, although it is nice to have when shooting landscapes at night.

A 16-35 is a photojournalist's lens. Focus speed and central sharpness is vital. F/2.8 or don't bother. Corner sharpness and distortion don't matter so much. Due to its less stringent optical design requirements, it is likely to be much cheaper than a 14-24.
Excellent explanation Shadowblade.
Now I can see why landscapists are clamoring for a 14-24 and don't find the 16-35 to perfectly suit them.

Given that journalism is a waning profession, I wonder how that affected the sales of a photojournalist's UWA lens... Maybe that will slow down the update as tkbslc has suggested...
andrikos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #9
David Arbogast
Goldmember
 
David Arbogast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Lee's Summit, Missouri
Posts: 4,887
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowblade View Post
Not replaced.

A 14-24 and a 16-35 serve very different purposes, and are likely to be used by very different types of photographers.

A 14-24 is a specialised lens, likely to be used by landscape photographers and artistic types to achieve effects which can't be done using longer lenses. Corner-to-corner sharpness on high-resolution sensors (looking to future 50MP-or-higher sensors), minimal distortion and minimal chromatic aberration are paramount. Focus speed, etc. is not. Even f/2.8 may not be essential, although it is nice to have when shooting landscapes at night.

A 16-35 is a photojournalist's lens. Focus speed and central sharpness is vital. F/2.8 or don't bother. Corner sharpness and distortion don't matter so much. Due to its less stringent optical design requirements, it is likely to be much cheaper than a 14-24.
Shadowblade, I enjoy reading your thoughts about lenses. And I agree: a corner-to-corner ultra-sharp well-corrected 14-24mm f/4 would be ideal in a lot of ways. I suspect we're just going to get a Canonized Nikon 14-24mm f/2.8, though. In any case, it will likely be better/sharper than the Nikon out of the necessity you referenced: upcoming 50MP+ cameras. Speaking of which, I hope a high MP camera gets announced sooner rather than later.

Congrats Andrikos on this thread being today's news on CanonRumors.com. It's a little role reversal as usually anything posted on Canon Rumors gets parroted here at POTN multiple times!
__________________
David | Flickr
Camera: [ Canon 5D III ] [ Sony a7R ]
Lens: [ Canon TS-E 17mm, TS-E 24mm II, 70-200mm II ] [ Zeiss (ZE): Otus 55mm]
David Arbogast is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15th of August 2012 (Wed)   #10
nuffi
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 926
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by andrikos View Post
Excellent explanation Shadowblade.
Now I can see why landscapists are clamoring for a 14-24 and don't find the 16-35 to perfectly suit them.

Given that journalism is a waning profession, I wonder how that affected the sales of a photojournalist's UWA lens... Maybe that will slow down the update as tkbslc has suggested...

Journalism isn't a waning profession really; it's just print media that's dying.

Journalistic photograpy will be going as strong as ever.
nuffi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16th of August 2012 (Thu)   #11
smorter
Goldmember
 
smorter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 4,453
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

You guys are famous you made Canonrumors.com!
__________________
Wedding Photography Melbourne
Reviews: 85LII
smorter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16th of August 2012 (Thu)   #12
andrikos
User is banned from forums
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 1,802
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Arbogast View Post
Congrats Andrikos on this thread being today's news on CanonRumors.com. It's a little role reversal as usually anything posted on Canon Rumors gets parroted here at POTN multiple times!
Quote:
Originally Posted by smorter View Post
You guys are famous you made Canonrumors.com!

Haha, that's pretty funny. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
I'm going to link it here so we can create a post-apocalyptic infinite loop that will short circuit the internet and send us back to the dark ages!

http://www.canonrumors.com/2012/08/n...ssion-opinion/

Last edited by andrikos : 16th of August 2012 (Thu) at 02:49.
andrikos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16th of August 2012 (Thu)   #13
andrikos
User is banned from forums
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 1,802
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by nuffi View Post
Journalism isn't a waning profession really; it's just print media that's dying.

Journalistic photograpy will be going as strong as ever.
I hope you are right, I don't pretend to know much about it. Print media is dead as we all know, hopefully photojournalism will not follow suit while being replaced by a bunch of hipster paparazzi armed with iPhones!
andrikos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22nd of August 2012 (Wed)   #14
watt100
Cream of the Crop
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,599
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

Quote:
Originally Posted by andrikos View Post

Haha, that's pretty funny. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
I'm going to link it here so we can create a post-apocalyptic infinite loop that will short circuit the internet and send us back to the dark ages!

http://www.canonrumors.com/2012/08/n...ssion-opinion/
rumors feeding on rumors - it is an infinite loop !
watt100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25th of August 2012 (Sat)   #15
w0m
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,065
Default Re: Fearless prediction: A new 16-35L III by the end of the Year

One of the most interesting things about the OP chart; how little lens pricing has changed over the years. o.0
w0m is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fearless Kid Qbx Critique Corner 10 22nd of May 2012 (Tue) 09:59
War·fearless 51doit People 9 29th of November 2010 (Mon) 20:45
Fearless Chipper drama Birds 20 27th of March 2010 (Sat) 20:17
Fearless C&C LylasMama Kids & Family 4 9th of June 2009 (Tue) 13:49
Prints the Fearless! kanonshooter Pets 10 21st of November 2008 (Fri) 13:52


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:31.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.12
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
This forum is not affiliated with Canon in any way and is run as a free user helpsite by Pekka Saarinen, Helsinki Finland. You will need to register in order to be able to post messages. Cookies are required for registering and posting. HTML in messages is not allowed, plain website addresses are automatically made active by the board.