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FORUMS Photography Talk by Genre General Photography Talk 
Thread started 14 Apr 2011 (Thursday) 12:19
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DSLR Bubble

 
banpreso
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Apr 14, 2011 12:19 |  #1

I think there might be a bubble in the DSLR market.

As DSLRs are being made more cheaply, more people are getting out of P&S and upgrading to DSLR. Right now DSLRs are still considered cool because it has the "being more professional" stigma attached to it, and soccer Moms and Dads are very happy to grab one for Christmas, for both an upgrade in image quality and obtaining the "cool" status. Out of the large number of people upgrading to DSLR, actually very few people are interested in photography, or will have a long term interest in photography.

Overtime, everybody's grandma will have a DSLR (looks like it's getting there), and owning a DSLR will no longer be considered cool. Most of the P&S shooters who upgraded will realize they no longer need a DSLR as P&S image quality continues to improve while they get tired of the larger size of DSLRs. At that time, a simple P&S marketing tag line as "DSLR image quality in a small package" will cause a mass exodus over time in the DSLR market.

At that time, our local craigslist will be flooded with Rebel T1i, T2i, and etc.


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whotaketh
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Apr 14, 2011 12:39 |  #2

That's assuming the manufacturers will integrate all DSLR features into the P&S. I doubt they would cannibalize their own profits considering the additional profits they reap when people "upgrade" to DSLR bodies. While that doesn't take into account the possibility of manufacturers reducing the bulk in future generation bodies, it would make sense to keep the distinction for the sole reason that it makes them so much money. Additionally, DSLRs provide the platform for new technology integration, which trickles down the product line all the way to P&S as it becomes more ingrained. Without that pro-platform upon which they can cram cutting-edge tech and justify selling 1DMkii prices, it'd be hard for them to innovate and separate themselves from their competition.

I don't disagree that used bodies will flood the market, but only because each brand introduces a new "upgrade" every 6-18 months. They are becoming commodities like computers are, so the ridiculous surplus that we're going to start seeing in the next five years or so will lower the entry point for even more people. Now if only that would happen with lens prices...


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Alex.K
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Apr 14, 2011 12:45 |  #3

whotaketh wrote in post #12221393 (external link)
Now if only that would happen with lens prices...

haha, no kidding.


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mike_d
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Apr 14, 2011 12:47 |  #4

I don't see everyone buying DSLRs. Aside from the cost, most people are turned off by the size and weight. I just happened to weigh my "lightweight" kit last night and it came to almost 13lb in the bag.

As far as people leaving DSLRs for small cameras with the same image quality, I don't see that happening either. At any given point in time, a DSLR will always be better than a P&S. There's no substitute for a big sensor. Pros, semi-pros, and hobbyists will keep buying DSLRs and buy P&S cameras or just use their cell phone.




  
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banpreso
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Apr 14, 2011 12:52 |  #5

whotaketh wrote in post #12221393 (external link)
That's assuming the manufacturers will integrate all DSLR features into the P&S. I doubt they would cannibalize their own profits considering the additional profits they reap when people "upgrade" to DSLR bodies. While that doesn't take into account the possibility of manufacturers reducing the bulk in future generation bodies, it would make sense to keep the distinction for the sole reason that it makes them so much money. Additionally, DSLRs provide the platform for new technology integration, which trickles down the product line all the way to P&S as it becomes more ingrained. Without that pro-platform upon which they can cram cutting-edge tech and justify selling 1DMkii prices, it'd be hard for them to innovate and separate themselves from their competition.

I don't disagree that used bodies will flood the market, but only because each brand introduces a new "upgrade" every 6-18 months. They are becoming commodities like computers are, so the ridiculous surplus that we're going to start seeing in the next five years or so will lower the entry point for even more people. Now if only that would happen with lens prices...

manufacturers will always have a pro level platform to introduce new technologies, that won't be a problem. and manufacturers don'tneed to cram all the DSLR features into a P&S. the people who upgraded from P&S, how many of them will actually use 3 different types of metering modes and exposure bracketing? what the average soccer mom needs is pretty minimal. a correctly focused, correctly exposed image that will show well on facebook.

and every manufacturer has a P&S line already. they'll just boost production on that, and push the products that are selling. it's not that hard for canon to shift R&D and production from rebels to S95s.


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banpreso
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Apr 14, 2011 12:55 |  #6

mike_d wrote in post #12221447 (external link)
As far as people leaving DSLRs for small cameras with the same image quality, I don't see that happening either. At any given point in time, a DSLR will always be better than a P&S. There's no substitute for a big sensor. Pros, semi-pros, and hobbyists will keep buying DSLRs and buy P&S cameras or just use their cell phone.

you're right, DSLRs will probably have better IQ, but overtime, the appreciable differce in IQ to an average shooter will diminish.


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mike_d
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Apr 14, 2011 13:06 |  #7

banpreso wrote in post #12221485 (external link)
you're right, DSLRs will probably have better IQ, but overtime, the appreciable differce in IQ to an average shooter will diminish.

But DSLRs aren't a static target. They're getting better all the time too.




  
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RTPVid
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Apr 14, 2011 13:10 |  #8

How did the SLR market ever survive long enough to become a "D"SLR? I mean, after all, there were P&S cameras in the film days... you know, when they ALL used the SAME "sensor" (film)? There is more to the difference between P&S and DSLRs than just the sensor size.


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forouza1
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Apr 14, 2011 13:10 as a reply to  @ banpreso's post |  #9

I disagree. I think you are seeing a surge but not a bubble. The main reason being that the lay person won't have the patience, money, time, or interest to invest in a DSLR. People don't want to lug around a large camera to capture those moments. The techonlogy with P&S is getting better and will satisfy most general population. The difference between the two segments is not so much the camera body but the lens cost and technology which keep the two distinctly separate. It would require a paradigm shift for this trend to change:

1) Apple decides to make a DSLR, creating a novel user interface for the masses.
2) Lens Prices drop and quality increases dramatically (not likely to happen anytime soon)


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mike_d
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Apr 14, 2011 13:12 |  #10

forouza1 wrote in post #12221599 (external link)
Now if Apple ever decided to make a DSLR, then I could see things turning upside down.

But it would have a non-removable battery, a fixed lens, and only one button.




  
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forouza1
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Apr 14, 2011 13:15 as a reply to  @ mike_d's post |  #11

Exactly mike_d, that's why it would get wide adoption. So easy, even a 5 year old or old grandma could use it.


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mike_d
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Apr 14, 2011 13:17 |  #12

forouza1 wrote in post #12221647 (external link)
Exactly mike_d, that's why it would get wide adoption. So easy, even a 5 year old or old grandma could use it.

But it wouldn't be a DSLR then.




  
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RTPVid
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Apr 14, 2011 13:18 |  #13

mike_d wrote in post #12221612 (external link)
But it would have a non-removable battery, a fixed lens, and only one button.

And no memory slot, so you'd buy either a 8GB model or a 16GB model, and you could only get the pictures out using iTunes using the proprietary cable. But, it'd play a mean game of Angry Birds and the "retina" screen could do a super job of displaying album art!


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forouza1
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Apr 14, 2011 13:21 |  #14

mike_d wrote in post #12221657 (external link)
But it wouldn't be a DSLR then.

Why couldn't it be? It would be digital and have a SLR mechanism. Not saying it would the right thing to do but it would be a paradigm shift from what is happening right now. That's how the iPhone became ubiquitous. Beforehand, the smartphone market was a niche.


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mike_d
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Apr 14, 2011 13:23 |  #15

forouza1 wrote in post #12221687 (external link)
Why couldn't it be? It would be digital and have a SLR mechanism. Not saying it would the right thing to do but it would be a paradigm shift from what is happening right now. That's how the iPhone became ubiquitous. Beforehand, the smartphone market was a niche.

Because part of being a DSLR is giving the photographer complete control over the process.




  
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