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FORUMS Photography Talk by Genre General Photography Talk 
Thread started 15 Jul 2011 (Friday) 07:52
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future: everyone has a p/s?

 
The ­ Shooter
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Jul 15, 2011 07:52 |  #1

so I was thinking, the way the world is driving forward with electronics and gadgets,
exponentially things are getting smaller and better.

do you think the days of carrying big DLSR bodies and carrying kilograms of glass around are numbered?
do you think in the next 50 years or even 100 years those days will be over and we will all be taking amazing pictures with super point and shoot cameras with F1 aparture and L glass quality zooms all in the size of a match box?
or maybe just in your smart phone?




  
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macroshooter1970
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Jul 15, 2011 07:55 |  #2

Might have to because in 50 years I'll be to old to carry anything :lol:




  
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KVN ­ Photo
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Jul 15, 2011 09:17 |  #3

I think I have died when that time comes, but with the evolution of digital this could be happened.


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bexi20
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Jul 15, 2011 09:22 as a reply to  @ KVN Photo's post |  #4

Everything will be in one super gadget, phone, camera, video camera, flash light...........


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KVN ­ Photo
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Jul 15, 2011 09:24 |  #5

And we will be panic when there is no one thing:

ELECTRICITY!


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Rocky ­ Rhode
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Jul 15, 2011 09:28 |  #6

The Myan clock is ticking...


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digital ­ paradise
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Jul 15, 2011 11:06 |  #7

bexi20 wrote in post #12762602 (external link)
Everything will be in one super gadget, phone, camera, video camera, flash light...........

Isn't that already here ;)


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digital ­ paradise
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Jul 15, 2011 11:08 |  #8

Rocky Rhode wrote in post #12762629 (external link)
The Myan clock is ticking...

They were crafty. One day they got bored and decided to stop their calendar just to mess up future generations and inadvertently make people rich.


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quiksquirrel
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Jul 15, 2011 11:46 |  #9

I believe that all technology will eventually evolve to a point, were further evolution is redundant.

When we get to the point, were we can easily and cheaply make a 100 gigapixel sensor, so sensitive that ISO is lo longer relevant and perfectly clean images regardless of outside factors, and fit it in a small body with a 5-25000mm. f/1 lens that would make a Canon L look like a Holga lens, I doubt there will be much reason for improvement.

Different manufactures will still make different designs, and even though it might not need to be larger than a P&S, I'm sure there will still be a demand for larger bodies.

That being said, I'm quite certain that the day when P&S's will rival DSLR's, is not long in the future.




  
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Rocky ­ Rhode
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Jul 15, 2011 13:37 |  #10

quiksquirrel wrote in post #12763281 (external link)
I believe that all technology will eventually evolve to a point, were further evolution is redundant.

When we get to the point, were we can easily and cheaply make a 100 gigapixel sensor, so sensitive that ISO is lo longer relevant and perfectly clean images regardless of outside factors, and fit it in a small body with a 5-25000mm. f/1 lens that would make a Canon L look like a Holga lens, I doubt there will be much reason for improvement.

Different manufactures will still make different designs, and even though it might not need to be larger than a P&S, I'm sure there will still be a demand for larger bodies.

That being said, I'm quite certain that the day when P&S's will rival DSLR's, is not long in the future.

By then DSLR will have evolved into 4-D Smell'O'Vision


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RichSoansPhotos
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Jul 16, 2011 04:08 |  #11
bannedPermanent ban

Unless there is a medical breakthrough that allows us to live forever, I am not bothered about what happens in 50-100years, but that is just me...maybe not

If you are so bothered by weight, go for a Nikon or a Canon 1D MKIV




  
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hollis_f
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Jul 16, 2011 07:49 |  #12

The P&S is doomed. Crushed between the quality of the dSLR and similar, relatively large, cameras; and the extreme portability and growing quality of the camera-phone.

People taking photographs tend to fall into two camps (often the same person jumps from one to the other in changing circumstances).

First there are those who want to take pictures to post on FaceSpoogle+ and other social networking sites. Or to display on their digital picture frame (max res 1600x1200 pixels). Or, for the real technophobes, to print out at the local supermarket. These people have been the main purchasers of P&S cameras in the past. But nowadays nearly all of them carry a phone that is equipped with a camera that's better than the P&S of 5 years ago - and improving all the time. Most of my friends no longer take their P&S with them - the phone will take pix and vids that are perfectly good enough for their intended use.

The second group are those who want to take 'good' images. In the past a lot of this group thought that a P&S could take 'good enough' images. But, as the prices of dSLR kits have dropped, more and more of their friends are seeing how good the results can be. So more and more people are buying into a cheap dSLR with a kit lens or two and are using them to take images their P&S would be hard-pressed to match.

I'm in both camps. I love taking good pictures with my expensive gear. But when I'm going out for an evening with friends I'll use my iPhone camera and my pals will be perfectly happy with the results when they see then on Facebook the next day (or the next minute). But what would I do with a PoS?

Oh, and for those who are going to say that unthought-of scientific marvels will come about that will make the P&S the equivalent of today's dSLRs. Those same marvels will be applicable to dSLRs and camera phones, thus maintaining the quality gap.


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cdifoto
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Jul 16, 2011 07:56 |  #13

hollis_f wrote in post #12767802 (external link)
The P&S is doomed. Crushed between the quality of the dSLR and similar, relatively large, cameras; and the extreme portability and growing quality of the camera-phone.

People taking photographs tend to fall into two camps (often the same person jumps from one to the other in changing circumstances).

First there are those who want to take pictures to post on FaceSpoogle+ and other social networking sites. Or to display on their digital picture frame (max res 1600x1200 pixels). Or, for the real technophobes, to print out at the local supermarket. These people have been the main purchasers of P&S cameras in the past. But nowadays nearly all of them carry a phone that is equipped with a camera that's better than the P&S of 5 years ago - and improving all the time. Most of my friends no longer take their P&S with them - the phone will take pix and vids that are perfectly good enough for their intended use.

The second group are those who want to take 'good' images. In the past a lot of this group thought that a P&S could take 'good enough' images. But, as the prices of dSLR kits have dropped, more and more of their friends are seeing how good the results can be. So more and more people are buying into a cheap dSLR with a kit lens or two and are using them to take images their P&S would be hard-pressed to match.

I'm in both camps. I love taking good pictures with my expensive gear. But when I'm going out for an evening with friends I'll use my iPhone camera and my pals will be perfectly happy with the results when they see then on Facebook the next day (or the next minute). But what would I do with a PoS?

Oh, and for those who are going to say that unthought-of scientific marvels will come about that will make the P&S the equivalent of today's dSLRs. Those same marvels will be applicable to dSLRs and camera phones, thus maintaining the quality gap.

I agree. P&S are in more danger of extinction than the digital SLR currently is. I have 2 point & shoots, 2 dSLRs, and a smart phone. The smart phone rivals the two P&S in most scenarios where a P&S is adequate, even being more convenient than the latter when it comes to location scouting. However, none of the three are nearly as good as my digital SLRs when image quality, speed, and functionality are more important than convenience.


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pwm2
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Jul 16, 2011 08:03 |  #14

quiksquirrel wrote in post #12763281 (external link)
I believe that all technology will eventually evolve to a point, were further evolution is redundant.

When we get to the point, were we can easily and cheaply make a 100 gigapixel sensor, so sensitive that ISO is lo longer relevant and perfectly clean images regardless of outside factors, and fit it in a small body with a 5-25000mm. f/1 lens that would make a Canon L look like a Holga lens, I doubt there will be much reason for improvement.

Different manufactures will still make different designs, and even though it might not need to be larger than a P&S, I'm sure there will still be a demand for larger bodies.

That being said, I'm quite certain that the day when P&S's will rival DSLR's, is not long in the future.

Except for physics.

We can't do better than capture the individual photons.

And a tiny, light, and superadvanced camera would still be tiny which does affect depth-of-field. There is a mathematical relation between focal length and aperture that means that small cameras just can't have super-tele without it affecting the aperture.

And in the same way, you can't just shrink the pixel size of the sensor and get a gain from it. You have the airy disc to think about, where the camera will be diffraction-limited. You can continue reducing the pixel size beyond the diffraction limit, but the only advantage would be that you could remove the low-pass filter on the sensor because the airy-disc itself would take care of moire artifacts.

So in the end, most people will probably be carrying devices containing quite good cameras. If we call these items phones, tricorders or something else is impossible to speculate on. But we would also have more advanced camera equipment. Both two-dimensional cameras similar to our DSLR. And probably two-lens 3D cameras. And probably cameras capturing light paths similar to holography, in which case we can either adjust the focus distance or view the subject from different angles.

In reality, we'll have what we already have now. Just lighter and better and better integrated. Batteries can be lighter or last longer. Having everything networked can allow us to separate capture device from storage device.


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quiksquirrel
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Jul 16, 2011 08:50 |  #15

pwm2 wrote in post #12767835 (external link)
Except for physics.

We can't do better than capture the individual photons.

And a tiny, light, and superadvanced camera would still be tiny which does affect depth-of-field. There is a mathematical relation between focal length and aperture that means that small cameras just can't have super-tele without it affecting the aperture.

And in the same way, you can't just shrink the pixel size of the sensor and get a gain from it. You have the airy disc to think about, where the camera will be diffraction-limited. You can continue reducing the pixel size beyond the diffraction limit, but the only advantage would be that you could remove the low-pass filter on the sensor because the airy-disc itself would take care of moire artifacts.

So in the end, most people will probably be carrying devices containing quite good cameras. If we call these items phones, tricorders or something else is impossible to speculate on. But we would also have more advanced camera equipment. Both two-dimensional cameras similar to our DSLR. And probably two-lens 3D cameras. And probably cameras capturing light paths similar to holography, in which case we can either adjust the focus distance or view the subject from different angles.

In reality, we'll have what we already have now. Just lighter and better and better integrated. Batteries can be lighter or last longer. Having everything networked can allow us to separate capture device from storage device.

I'm well aware of this and your point is valid.
But I don't believe that you are necessarily correct. The "laws" of physics are only theories. Granted, they are very well documented theories and universally acknowledged as fact. But like all other facts, they can change over time, as our understanding of the universe increases.
Many things that, based on fact, were believed to be physically impossible 50 years ago, are common today. Even the very nature of light has been manipulated beyond what most people today would believe.

More to the point..
My example was deliberately taken to the extreme, to emphasize my point.
There are many variables and no one can say for sure what the next breakthrough will be. Sensors in 50 years, may be so different from what we have today, that we wouldn't recognize them. The same is true for lenses, and anything else.




  
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future: everyone has a p/s?
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