My Musings on the Future!

For you to all read..again..

I think basically the rumors of sub-$2000 FF DSLRs are true, I think the reason for it is that APS-C sensors are at their limits and the laws of physics and current technology mean that as of right now, its more economical to slot in a full frame sensor into a body in this price class as opposed to develop an APS-C sensor capable of outperforming the current ones....

I just dont think you can practically make an APS-C sensor much better than they are now in practical usage, They already are better at high ISOs than film ever was, and most users are very happy with their images, the users that demand more quality arent going to be satisfied with a massaged APS-C sensor anymore, they need more, and more can only be given by making the pixels bigger...

is APS-C dead? No, I just believe its time is over in the $1600+ price range, The D7000 I think was the first warning of this, being a camera that shot very close to the capability of the $1700 D300s for a more affordable $1200

On the lower end side of things I think Mirrorless is making a dent in traditional DSLR sales, this coupled with the economies of scale and lower R&D costs (because APS-C sensors have hit their "peak" for now until some new tech comes along that boosts them) mean that I think we'll start seeing the first sub-$500 DSLRs, I wouldnt be surprised if the Rebel T4 is a $350 kit price

The T4i after all got upgraded quite a bit, and i think capability-wise its very close to the 60D now in many ways, the AF is supposedly faster and such, and the touchscreen, So i think the T4i is basically a replacement for the 60D, Id expect the T5i next year to be basically a T4i but with the price reduced to $600

The 60D and 7D are going to merge into what I'm going to call the "Renegade", Basically a 7D body, with a tilty-touchscreen, 18mp sensor, 19pt AF and 7fps shooting

Then we have the new 7Dx, 21mp FF sensor from the 5DIII, 19pt AF, 4fps shooting, 97% viewfinder at a $1799 price point, or bundled with a brand new 28-105 f/3.5-4.5 IS STM lens for $1999

I think the 5DIII will drop in price to closer to $2800-3000 once demand drops a bit, This will make the price spread between the 7Dx and the 5DIII a bit less...

KenjiS wrote in post #14755463
For you to all read..again..

I think basically the rumors of sub-$2000 FF DSLRs are true, I think the reason for it is that APS-C sensors are at their limits and the laws of physics and current technology mean that as of right now, its more economical to slot in a full frame sensor into a body in this price class as opposed to develop an APS-C sensor capable of outperforming the current ones....

I just dont think you can practically make an APS-C sensor much better than they are now in practical usage, They already are better at high ISOs than film ever was, and most users are very happy with their images, the users that demand more quality arent going to be satisfied with a massaged APS-C sensor anymore, they need more, and more can only be given by making the pixels bigger...

is APS-C dead? No, I just believe its time is over in the $1600+ price range, The D7000 I think was the first warning of this, being a camera that shot very close to the capability of the $1700 D300s for a more affordable $1200

On the lower end side of things I think Mirrorless is making a dent in traditional DSLR sales, this coupled with the economies of scale and lower R&D costs (because APS-C sensors have hit their "peak" for now until some new tech comes along that boosts them) mean that I think we'll start seeing the first sub-$500 DSLRs, I wouldnt be surprised if the Rebel T4 is a $350 kit price

The T4i after all got upgraded quite a bit, and i think capability-wise its very close to the 60D now in many ways, the AF is supposedly faster and such, and the touchscreen, So i think the T4i is basically a replacement for the 60D, Id expect the T5i next year to be basically a T4i but with the price reduced to $600

The 60D and 7D are going to merge into what I'm going to call the "Renegade", Basically a 7D body, with a tilty-touchscreen, 18mp sensor, 19pt AF and 7fps shooting

Then we have the new 7Dx, 21mp FF sensor from the 5DIII, 19pt AF, 4fps shooting, 97% viewfinder at a $1799 price point, or bundled with a brand new 28-105 f/3.5-4.5 IS STM lens for $1999

I think the 5DIII will drop in price to closer to $2800-3000 once demand drops a bit, This will make the price spread between the 7Dx and the 5DIII a bit less...

OK, I'll pass your "musings" on to the Canon Engineering and Marketing Dept. They appreciate penetrating prognostications

KenjiS wrote in post #14755463
For you to all read..again..

I think basically the rumors of sub-$2000 FF DSLRs are true, I think the reason for it is that APS-C sensors are at their limits and the laws of physics and current technology mean that as of right now, its more economical to slot in a full frame sensor into a body in this price class as opposed to develop an APS-C sensor capable of outperforming the current ones....

I've kind of been inferring what you say about the sensors being at their limits by the fact that for several generations of cameras Canon has not increased the pixel count, while on the way up to the 18 mp level they were tacking on 3 megapixels per upgrade, now no increase since the 550D. The only thing I'd like to see is an increase in dynamic range, I think Canon lags behind Pentax and Sony in that regard.

patrick j wrote in post #14757377
I've kind of been inferring what you say about the sensors being at their limits by the fact that for several generations of cameras Canon has not increased the pixel count, while on the way up to the 18 mp level they were tacking on 3 megapixels per upgrade, now no increase since the 550D. The only thing I'd like to see is an increase in dynamic range, I think Canon lags behind Pentax and Sony in that regard.

They lag behind Sony in that regard, Keep in mind Pentax uses a Sony sensor, as does Nikon...

Funny thing is Olympus has come out and claimed that the new PEN cameras use Sony sensors, not Panasonic, which is why the performance is much better than it used to be...

Sony has some proprietary patents and proprietary tech in their sensors to my knowledge, thats why their 16mp and 24mp APS-C sensors are top of the world at the moment and Canon hasnt been able to match it purely because they either wont, or cant license the tech... and cant produce the same results at the moment without possibly violating Sony's patents and ending up in court...

I forgot who said it (Was it Roger Cicala?) But they said "Sony is the new Kodak" because of their sensors, IE, Sony is staging itself to really be "At the heart of the image" by making sure that everyone pretty much uses their sensors in their cameras... This actually is probably more profitable for Sony to be honest...

Which is why 1k for a used 7D is a really great deal IMHO.

Talley wrote in post #14758266
Which is why 1k for a used 7D is a really great deal IMHO.

or $150 for a used XSi/450D
the future is now!

Yep, just bought a cheap second hand 450d, fab little camera.

watt100 wrote in post #14794815
or $150 for a used XSi/450D
the future is now!

Wow, really?

Whats a T1i going for these days then?

KenjiS wrote in post #14802560
Wow, really?

Whats a T1i going for these days then?

the T1i is considered a "classic", commanding premium prices.

KenjiS wrote in post #14755463
For you to all read..again..
The 60D and 7D are going to merge into what I'm going to call the "Renegade", Basically a 7D body, with a tilty-touchscreen, 18mp sensor, 19pt AF and 7fps shooting

Better have the same button and control layout as the 7D as the 60D is poor in that regard compared to the 7D

KenjiS wrote in post #14755463
Then we have the new 7Dx, 21mp FF sensor from the 5DIII, 19pt AF, 4fps shooting, 97% viewfinder at a $1799 price point, or bundled with a brand new 28-105 f/3.5-4.5 IS STM lens for $1999

I doubt they will call it the 7Dx more likley 9D or 8D could be wrong though.

match14 wrote in post #14803565
I doubt they will call it the 7Dx more likley 9D or 8D could be wrong though.

According to Canon's naming convention, this wouldn't make sense as smaller numbers are higher specced cameras.
So a new FF camera that's lower specced than the 5D would probably become 6D (nicknamed sexy! .

andrikos wrote in post #14803578
According to Canon's naming convention, this wouldn't make sense as smaller numbers are higher specced cameras.
So a new FF camera that's lower specced than the 5D would probably become 6D (nicknamed sexy! .

Canon uses odd numbers historically though...

IE, in film there was the Elan 7, EOS 3, EOS 1, there was also an EOS 5.... but no EOS 6..

So the problem here is what would a low end FF body be called...

i dont think there will ever be an EOS 3D because people are idiots and someone will buy it thinking it takes 3D images...

the T4i might be a de facto replacement for the 60D but only if they feel their DSLR line is too cluttered.

Basically I disagree with almost everything you said except the mirrorless cameras putting a large dent in the rebel line.

While I think there will be a market for APS-C for the foreseeable future, I've been saying for a while that the Pro and Advanced worlds are going back to "film" and by that, I mean FF.

APS-C was/is a low cost sensor size in both manufacturing and marketing terms, but APS-H was simply a "stop gap" size enroute to "affordable" FF which we're now seeing.

I can see EF-S development slowing as these new and improved EF lenses roll out.

I think DSLR is heading to purely FF and everything else will be mirrorless. It will be a slow transition (10 years?), but DSLR is probably going "Pro" only.