I live in Brooklyn, and have been to Manhattan fairly often, and more often then not, it breaks down to shots where you want a really wide lens or a really long lens. Maybe it's just that I love the compressed telephoto look.
The wide zoom is definitely recommended. As for your second choice... I'd personally go with either the 70-200 or 100-400, as there's plenty to be seen from afar, but only if you know where to shoot from. So I guess if you're short on time, or haven't been there yet before, it's not a good idea to lug a big white lens around. Just like any real local, I have no idea what the locations I usually shoot at are called or their geographic position, I just get around from memory.
The 100L is small and light, so if you find the extra space in your bag, you could take that along.
The only location I can imagine the polarizer being useful is around Central Park, and maybe if you want to see through store windows.
The tripod is also likely not to see much use anywhere but in parks, because you're guaranteed to trip someone over anywhere else, and many places don't even allow them. You'll save weight and get more shots just by taking a lens with IS along instead.