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FORUMS Canon Cameras, Lenses & Accessories Canon EOS Digital Cameras 
Thread started 07 Mar 2014 (Friday) 06:23
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Is Canon losing the War ?

 
MakisM1
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Mar 12, 2014 12:04 |  #121

cdifoto wrote in post #16753236 (external link)
Stuff breaks and wears out too. People stop "relying" on high mileage stuff so they ditch it and buy new. Look at...ugh...cars.

...and the sales of used 5Dc and 1DII... :rolleyes:


Gerry
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kimboy
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Mar 12, 2014 12:06 |  #122

gjl711 wrote in post #16740886 (external link)
Everyone is loosing, at least for the last two years. Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fuji, everyone has been posting lower than expected results. From what I have read, this year too will be a bad year for camera manufacturers.

+1 on the sentiment.




  
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kfreels
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Mar 12, 2014 22:36 |  #123

cdifoto wrote in post #16753236 (external link)
Stuff breaks and wears out too. People stop "relying" on high mileage stuff so they ditch it and buy new. Look at...ugh...cars.

Yeah. Cars that last twice as long now as well. My old 76 Monte Carlo's title said "Exceeds Mechanical Limits" when it passed 100k miles. It was also pretty much worthless at that point. My miata at 200k has only had about $500 in repairs (excluding regular maintenance).


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1Tanker
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Mar 12, 2014 23:04 |  #124

kfreels wrote in post #16754596 (external link)
Yeah. Cars that last twice as long now as well. My old 76 Monte Carlo's title said "Exceeds Mechanical Limits" when it passed 100k miles. It was also pretty much worthless at that point. My miata at 200k has only had about $500 in repairs (excluding regular maintenance).

Yeah, i was thinking the same thing. They may not be built as "heavily", but they can take a pounding, and get 150k miles on most engines.


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cdifoto
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Mar 12, 2014 23:46 |  #125

kfreels wrote in post #16754596 (external link)
Yeah. Cars that last twice as long now as well. My old 76 Monte Carlo's title said "Exceeds Mechanical Limits" when it passed 100k miles. It was also pretty much worthless at that point. My miata at 200k has only had about $500 in repairs (excluding regular maintenance).

I won't mention mine. No jinxing. :eek: :D


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single_track
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Mar 13, 2014 08:47 |  #126

cdifoto wrote in post #16748305 (external link)
Canon could stop R&D right now for all I care, and just keep producing the current lineup for the next 50 years. They're already AMAZING machines. I just want to be able to replace my stuff after I run it into the ground.

Can't speak for you, but I always feel this way after a 'big' purchase line a new 'L' lens or new body. But invariably, talk starts up on this new wiz-bang thingy that is going to change photography (higher MP, higher ISO, More focus points, faster FPS, touch screen convenience, Better wireless, sharper optics, better IS, etc.)

I am sure you are exaggerating on 50 years. My guess that phones will take over the photography market in all but a few select applications in less than 5 years. There will be a dslr market for the foreseeable future but in share, this market will quickly shrink drastically as better options present themselves. Probably means that pricing goes way up for dslr lenses and bodies as they become more of a specialty product.

The capabilities of the phone camera, and competitive pressure would kill canon photo products if they sat on their laurels. Same as any other business, especially technology products. Canon would not. could not maintain their current product support without new sales of bodies, lenses, accessories, software, etc.

Most people would rather carry a phone than a dslr. If the performance of a phone matched or exceeded dslr's, only the stubborn would hang on (myself included).


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single_track
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Mar 13, 2014 09:25 as a reply to  @ single_track's post |  #127

Phone capabilities and apps have progressed so fast, are so cheap, and are everywhere.

Smart phones have killed, or are killing:
- P&S cameras
- Video cameras
- GPS units
- PDA's
- MP3 players
- Portable game units
- Portable video players
- Portable tape recorders/digital recorders
- maps
- 411 service

- I think phones will do to dslr's what digital did to analog photography. Not kill it, but reduce it to a specialty market for the very few.

My opinion: Canon photo products and ongoing support will only survive the mid-term challenges with great R&D and great vision.


I always want C&C on my shots.
Gear list: 70d, 5d & 40d | 70-200L/f4 IS | 24-70L | 17-40L | Sigmalux | 17-85 IS | Opteka 6.5mm fisheye | 580exII
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cdifoto
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Mar 13, 2014 10:16 |  #128

single_track wrote in post #16755263 (external link)
Can't speak for you, but I always feel this way after a 'big' purchase line a new 'L' lens or new body. But invariably, talk starts up on this new wiz-bang thingy that is going to change photography (higher MP, higher ISO, More focus points, faster FPS, touch screen convenience, Better wireless, sharper optics, better IS, etc.)

I am sure you are exaggerating on 50 years. My guess that phones will take over the photography market in all but a few select applications in less than 5 years. There will be a dslr market for the foreseeable future but in share, this market will quickly shrink drastically as better options present themselves. Probably means that pricing goes way up for dslr lenses and bodies as they become more of a specialty product.

The capabilities of the phone camera, and competitive pressure would kill canon photo products if they sat on their laurels. Same as any other business, especially technology products. Canon would not. could not maintain their current product support without new sales of bodies, lenses, accessories, software, etc.

Most people would rather carry a phone than a dslr. If the performance of a phone matched or exceeded dslr's, only the stubborn would hang on (myself included).

I wasn't exaggerating. I only have 1D II and 1D III bodies and they continue to blow my mind. All I have to do is get my lighting right. ;)

That means I'd be floored by the absolute current product and I would NEVER surpass its capabilities. I've yet to see anyone who claims the latest isn't good enough prove it to be true. They invariably want the camera to be better to compensate for their own inadequacies.


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kfreels
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Mar 13, 2014 10:31 |  #129

I think an interesting game to play is it to look at what we think the market will look like 15 years from now. Here's what I would anticipate:

Most people will own a converged device (smartphone) that is pocketable, shoots nice clear usable shots at ISOs around 3200. Has a resolution able to zoom in to do some major cropping and still get a decent image, and can do full HD video and even slow motion with higher framerates.

The P&S market will transition into a smartphone accessory market. These devices will be add-ons to the phones that will extend their capabilities. They will probably not be sold by the camera manufacturers directly. Instead there will be partnerships. For example, Canon may make a complete alternate back for a Samsung phone that has a completely different sensor and a lens system similar to a P&S with it's own processing capabilities, etc. The phone would serve as an interface only and would also be able to immediately upload to sharing sites without the need for a wifi connection which is a real sore spot for P&S cameras. I think we'll see a lot of interesting innovation in this area. Now I'm using Samsung as an example. At the moment, Samsung makes their own P&S and even mirrorless offerings. Whether a partnership with Canon would make sense I'm not sure. Canon has some expertise that they don't have at Samsung but how important that is to the mass market I'm not entirely sure. They may drop out of this market altogether and leave it to the phone makers and focus on the other things. But imagine an optional back for a phone with an EF-S mount and APS-C sensor.

On the high-end side, I see the mirrors disappearing to be replaced with a digital display. The SLR form factor will still remain and will still dominate over the current mirrorless design as it's just a pain in the rear to use heavy lenses with a camera designed to be held away from the body. Once the lag problem on the digital viewfinder is dealt with completely, and the mirror is gone, all sorts of new things become possible. I won't even go into that because it would be a book in itself.

Assuming that the accessories mentioned above come to market, the current types of "mirrorless ILCs" will just disappear just like the P&S. Why have a separate camera that can't access 3G directly when you can put those same lenses on a phone? The ability to share immediately from anywhere is perhaps the largest driving factor for the majority of the market.

Of course this is all just speculation. No doubt there's plenty of things I haven't thought of and many other opinions. But that's mine. All bets are off however if Canon strikes up a deal with AT&T to put 4G SIM cards in their cameras just for photo uploads just like they did that deal with Amazon for Kindle store purchases.


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single_track
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Mar 13, 2014 10:35 |  #130

cdifoto wrote in post #16755489 (external link)
I wasn't exaggerating. I only have 1D II and 1D III bodies and they continue to blow my mind. All I have to do is get my lighting right. ;)

That means I'd be floored by the absolute current product and I would NEVER surpass its capabilities. I've yet to see anyone who claims the latest isn't good enough prove it to be true. They invariably want the camera to be better to compensate for their own inadequacies.

I remember reading the same about the Canon AE-1, Box camera, and a thousand other items. I am not saying that the current camera don't surpass 99.99% of the population, but time marches on and innovation too. I am guessing that you did not start with the 1DII and 1DIII but upgraded to them. My guess is that you will upgrade again when a newer generation entices you enough. Does not mean you would have to, just want to.

My 40d still does what I need, but I went to the 5d, then the 70d. Heck, my Minolta x-700 and Elan IIe still could meet my needs but not with the convenience or performance that I desire.

Innovation in photography does not make the older stuff suddenly inadequate, just less convenient (relatively). I hung onto to analog photography and my darkroom long after most have converted. I still miss it but not for the convenience or performance.


I always want C&C on my shots.
Gear list: 70d, 5d & 40d | 70-200L/f4 IS | 24-70L | 17-40L | Sigmalux | 17-85 IS | Opteka 6.5mm fisheye | 580exII
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Mar 13, 2014 11:00 |  #131

My updates inlined in blue:

single_track wrote in post #16755355 (external link)
Phone capabilities and apps have progressed so fast, are so cheap, and are everywhere.

Smart phones have killed, or are killing:
- P&S cameras => Low-end P&S without nice zoom optics
- Video cameras => Low-end video cameras without nice zoom optics
- GPS units => GPS is now everywhere (phones,watches,camera​s,...)
- PDA's => Not killed - a PDA is basically a smartphone without the phone
- MP3 players
- Portable game units
- Portable video players
- Portable tape recorders/digital recorders
- maps
- 411 service

- I think phones will do to dslr's what digital did to analog photography. Not kill it, but reduce it to a specialty market for the very few.
Note that a DSLR could match almost everything film could, while adding lots of things film could not.

A phone camera can't match what a DSLR can. A small lens is still a small lens. A small lens requires an even smaller sensor if you want a large magnification. A small lens/sensor can't avoid catching few photons. And a small lens/sensor can't avoid a huge DoF - it's basically a pinhole camera.

My opinion: Canon photo products and ongoing support will only survive the mid-term challenges with great R&D and great vision.


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sjones
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Mar 13, 2014 11:09 |  #132

single_track wrote in post #16755543 (external link)
I remember reading the same about the Canon AE-1, Box camera, and a thousand other items. I am not saying that the current camera don't surpass 99.99% of the population, but time marches on and innovation too. I am guessing that you did not start with the 1DII and 1DIII but upgraded to them. My guess is that you will upgrade again when a newer generation entices you enough. Does not mean you would have to, just want to.

My 40d still does what I need, but I went to the 5d, then the 70d. Heck, my Minolta x-700 and Elan IIe still could meet my needs but not with the convenience or performance that I desire.

Innovation in photography does not make the older stuff suddenly inadequate, just less convenient (relatively). I hung onto to analog photography and my darkroom long after most have converted. I still miss it but not for the convenience or performance.

And for a few people, the AE-1 is still perfect (or close enough) for them.


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single_track
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Mar 13, 2014 11:18 |  #133

sjones wrote in post #16755602 (external link)
And for a few people, the AE-1 is still perfect (or close enough) for them.

Agreed, for probably <0.5% of the AE-1 of the cameras ever produced. That is my point that as innovation moves on, a few people (specialty market) will hold on the 'older' technology. Most users move on.


I always want C&C on my shots.
Gear list: 70d, 5d & 40d | 70-200L/f4 IS | 24-70L | 17-40L | Sigmalux | 17-85 IS | Opteka 6.5mm fisheye | 580exII
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Mar 13, 2014 11:22 as a reply to  @ sjones's post |  #134

I think they are all losing, I have not looked at sales number over the years, but I just came back from Disney world, I saw about 3 nikon dslr's, about 20 rebels, and about 10,000 cellphones taking pictures. I hate to say it, the younger generation want to snap it, then send it, there not 100% cropping to look at noise..:lol:




  
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MakisM1
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Mar 13, 2014 11:30 |  #135

Give the younger generation some room and some time.

My son, who will be 21 in a week, asked me for my old(er) P&S for his upcoming skiing trip '...because iPhone pictures are cr@p...'

Few are born appreciating $60 bottles of red wine either... :rolleyes:


Gerry
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