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Thread started 25 Dec 2014 (Thursday) 10:15
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DSLR soon obsolete

 
HappySnapper90
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Jan 01, 2015 21:05 |  #61

DutchinCLE wrote in post #17353490 (external link)
Sony A99 is a full frame mirrorless camera too, with all the A-mount lenses and minolta lenses at your disposal.

The a99 has a mirror and it doesn't move.




  
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HappySnapper90
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Jan 01, 2015 21:08 |  #62

mystik610 wrote in post #17354772 (external link)
Meanwhile the imaging units of Sony, Fuji, and Olympus actually increased their sales in 2014 via mirrorless cameras. It's clear where the growth in the industry will be going forward.

The CIPA data for 2014 hasn't been posted yet, but some of the monthly CIPA reports point to growing mirrorless sales, and still declining DSLR sales. Based on what we've seen so far, 2014 & 2015 have been/will be pivotal years for mirrorless cameras both in terms of the technology, and the shift in market trends.

Canon is in OK shape right now, as they have a diversified set of business units. Not the case for Nikon.

Either way, the imaging groups of both companies will have to make some changes to their product mix to turn their performance around.

Mirrorless cameras don't have to be small. Cameras are specialty tools, and even when mirrorless cameras do replace DSLR's at one point, there will be a broad spectrum of products in different configurations to meet different needs. The advantage of developing a mirrorless format from a business standpoint is the scalability of the format vs DSLR's. You can take the same sensor and mount, and build everything from an extremely compact fixed lens mirrorless camera that will fit into a jacket pocket, to a gripped pro body camera like the 1D.

Nikon is a sub company of Mitsubishi.




  
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mystik610
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Post edited over 4 years ago by mystik610. (2 edits in all)
     
Jan 01, 2015 22:13 |  #63

HappySnapper90 wrote in post #17361332 (external link)
Nikon is a sub company of Mitsubishi.

Not necessarily. More like Nikon is a publicly traded, independent member of the Mitsubishi Group. The Mitsubishi Group is a group of independently run organizations that is more of a business alliance than a business entity...i.e., while each of the members have significant share in one another, they do not roll up under a parent company. As such, the members of the Mitsubish Group may have a vested interest in the performance of Nikon, however, the financial performance of one member does not directly impact the other. So if Nikon's imaging department is distressed financially, it cannot leverage the performance of other entities to keep itself afloat. Very different from the positions that Canon and Sony are in.


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YamahaRob
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Jan 02, 2015 02:05 |  #64

I remember hearing people say DLSR's will be obsolete by 2008, then 2010, then 2012, then 2014. Their still here in force.


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mystik610
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Post edited over 4 years ago by mystik610. (2 edits in all)
     
Jan 02, 2015 06:41 |  #65

YamahaRob wrote in post #17361670 (external link)
I remember hearing people say DLSR's will be obsolete by 2008, then 2010, then 2012, then 2014. Their still here in force.

There's a distinction between something being obsolete, and something being 'dead'. i.e., CD's are obsolete in terms of technology, but not necessarily dead, as you technically can still buy them in the store.

That said, the past year or so has been relevant, because its the first time that mirrorless cameras have started to meet or beat the performance of their mirrored counter-parts. The a6000 does everything the 7D mark II does without the need of a mirror. The a7rII does everything the 6D does (and more, with it's 5 axis in body image stabilization). If the rumored a9 does hit the market with the a7r's sensor, a6000's AF, and the a7II's 5 axis in body image stabilization, then it will do more than the 5D mark III and D800.

Markets usually don't evolve as quickly as technology does, so 'obsolete' technologies (like CD's) have a tendency to persist. So DSLR's may persist for awhile, but the technology behind DSLR's is technically already obsolete.


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Jan 02, 2015 08:48 |  #66

Here is my take...the DSLR as we now know it today, will fade away....eventually...n​ot as fast has has been predicted, but not as slow as others are predicting either. If the camera manufactures see the writing in the wall, and decide there will be more money made on say mirror less, then, they will pour more R&D into those products, shortening the time to market, since there is only so much R&D money, another line of products will see less. Let's all be honest here, if you could get the same level of performance out of equipment that is half the size (and weight) why wouldn't you. No, its not all there now (performance), but our current dslr's didn't reach the performance level they are at for a number of years either...;-)a


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Jan 02, 2015 15:37 |  #67

digirebelva wrote in post #17361980 (external link)
Let's all be honest here, if you could get the same level of performance out of equipment that is half the size (and weight) why wouldn't you.


Because some people (like me) are tall/large/have big hands and aside from when I go on long (several day) hikes would rather have a large form factor. I hate interacting with small things - keyboards on phones make me want to chuck them out the window. Much the same - a DSLR is a good fit for my hand and the weight rarely every bothers me - even then it is more likely the lens than the body.


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Wilt
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Jan 02, 2015 16:51 |  #68

gmm213 wrote in post #17352994 (external link)
Now why even bother buying a camera when my phone can do it as well. Look at teens. They are already always on there phones already why put it down and pick up a DSLR when the results are so similar between a cameraphone and a DSLR with kit lens in auto especially when you just plaster all kinds of effects in instagram over it.

Heck, forget the teens... judging by these past holidays and watching our 30-something and 40-something adult offspring, NO ONE had a camera that they used for holiday photos, they ALL used smartphones. Even the eldest daughter, who lamented over two years ago at the insufficiency of her sluggish smartphone for photos -- so we BOUGHT her a quality P&S with very fast response times for Xmas two years ago!!! -- continues to exhibit (too much laziness at bringing the camera to any holiday events?!) chronic use of her smartphone camera. No one under 41 had a dedicated camera in use!

mystik610 wrote in post #17353354 (external link)
The benefits go beyond size and weight

-More accurate AF, as it isn't hindered by the inherent calibration issues between the mirror and sensor
-Ability to leverage more accurate, yet very fast focusing, hybrid phase detect/contrast detect AF systems. (i.e. the dual pixel AF in the 70D via live view)
-Ability to AF across the entire sensor (contrast detect), and place AF points (phase detect & hybrid) across the entire sensor. AF and track motion across the entire frame vs in the center of the frame with DSLR cameras.
-Exposure preview via EVF, including ISO boosted image in view finder when shooting in low light
-More data within the viewfinder (focus peaking, levels, zebra patterns, histograms, grids, etc etc)
-Faster shutter speeds and FPS. There are mirrorless cameras that can shoot at a 1/16,000s shutter speed. Shutter speed and FPS is not limited by the physical movement of the mirror. its limited by how fast the shutter can open and close, and how fast the processor (and card) can write the data.
-allows for lenses with a smaller flange distance, leading to smaller designs
-no need for retrofocal designs for wide angle focal lengths. Any lens wider than about 40mm will benefit from smaller, simpler designs. This includes zooms that include wide angle focal lengths (17-40, 24-70, 28-135, etc etc)
-quieter (no mirrorslap). exception is the a7r, with its mechanic shutter
-less moving parts - most common component to break on a DSLR is the mirror.

You list some good points. If Sony ever figures out how to be a 'photography vendor' in ernest, rather than to merely be a 'consumer electronics vendor' who sells cameras, and if they start to mention a lot of those benefits to pro photographers in an active marketing campaign, they could really suck the life out of Nikon and Canon professional sales!
I had previously stated that Sony, et al, were using the mirrorless bandwagon to eke out some market share from the established dSLR vendors. And until your list above, no one could articulate to me any technical reason for 'why mirrorless'.


mystik610 wrote in post #17353354 (external link)
For a lot of people, lugging around a smaller camera without sacrificing image quality is a huge value proposition....The size and weight savings don't look like a whole on paper, but in real world use, the savings are significant...particul​arly when using the typical 'walking lenses' as again, they can utilize simpler, smaller designs. ... significantly less strain on my back after hours in the park, and much less bulky equipment to get in the way of enjoying myself and shooting for fun.

Olympus proved the value of the compact body SLR, and the world flocked by the millions to buy the OM bodies and all the many spinoffs launched by virtually all of the traditional SLR manufacturer. The 'too small for my hands' lament as a prevention of the shrinking of the dSLR from its current bloated bulk is no more valid now than 40 years ago, but mirrorless is not the only way to achieve the size and weight benefits...the OM and the OM copycats proved that already.


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Jan 02, 2015 17:34 |  #69

Wilt wrote in post #17362708 (external link)
Olympus proved the value of the compact body SLR, and the world flocked by the millions to buy the OM bodies and all the many spinoffs launched by virtually all of the traditional SLR manufacturer. The 'too small for my hands' lament as a prevention of the shrinking of the dSLR from its current bloated bulk is no more valid now than 40 years ago, but mirrorless is not the only way to achieve the size and weight benefits...the OM and the OM copycats proved that already.

Well, I agree that for the volume markets smaller is better. Still, when I use a supertelephoto lens I like a 1D body. I find even the 5D, which is relatively speaking a large camera to feel small when attached to any 3-5 kg lens. The grip of the 1D is better.

But back to mystic's point, I think Canon or Nikon could respond to this mirrorless technology in a way that would take advantage of their existing product lines while competing hard with Fuji, Sony and Oly. Here is what it would look like:

1. Take a small body with minimum dimensions and offer it in lines using 35mm and 1.6X format sensors. Use a very short register distance.
2. Give it a fast contrast detect AF system like the Sony A6000. Give it top grade EVF.
3. Release a dedicated line of wide angle lenses from 16mm to 50mm that mate with the short register distance.
4. For longer lenses, offer a simple metal ring adaptor (like a macro spacer ring) that allows EF lenses to work on the new, short register cameras.

Now you have a small body that can take super small and nice wide angles that are not retrofocus. But this camera will mate and work with EF lenses just like any other EOS dSLR. So you enter the mirrorless market with a complete set of lenses and a lot of potential.


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Jan 02, 2015 18:30 |  #70

mystik610 wrote in post #17361845 (external link)
The a6000 does everything the 7D mark II does without the need of a mirror. The a7rII does everything the 6D does (and more, with it's 5 axis in body image stabilization).

Is the AF speed for the A6000 really as fast as the 7D MKII and the a7rII AF is as fast as the 6D, particularly in low light?


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Jan 02, 2015 21:01 |  #71

Bob_A wrote in post #17362877 (external link)
Is the AF speed for the A6000 really as fast as the 7D MKII and the a7rII AF is as fast as the 6D, particularly in low light?

That's the claim.


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Jan 02, 2015 22:11 as a reply to  @ gjl711's post |  #72

Cool. I need to look at a few more reviews then because the ones I've seen said exactly the opposite.


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Jan 03, 2015 08:30 as a reply to  @ benji25's post |  #73

While I can certainly sympathize with your plight (not exactly small myself), we are not the majority of camera users out there. It's gonna happen, the market will dictate it, if Canon/Nikon etc. want to stay in business in the future (how far in the future is the big guess). But only if they can meet or exceed today's performance level...the big variable is going to be lenses...how small/lightweight can they make them, and still retain their performance (i.e. F2.8 etc)...if any at all...
I would think that lens size would dictate how small the body can/will go. None of us wants to have a 70-200 sized lens dangling in front of a LG-G3 sized camera..Simply from a purely functional perspective..
Time will tell I guess


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Jan 03, 2015 08:54 as a reply to  @ digirebelva's post |  #74

We already know the answer to the lens question. If you want to see where lenses can go on short register distance EVIL cameras, look at the Leica and Voightlander lenses for the M mount. You will quickly note that everything in the wide range, from 24mm to 50mm can be made much smaller on a short register body.

But, the long telephotos will be exactly the same size as they are on current dSLRs. Look into the back of lenses like 70-200, 135L, and the 200 to 800mm primes and you will note that they all have a lot of air between the last element and the mount. These lens designs would remain largely the same, with just a bit more air when made for a short register body.

Or as I noted, a Canon EVIL camera with short register distance could easily use the EOS telephoto lenses along with a simple spacer ring (with contacts).


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Jan 03, 2015 09:24 |  #75

Once I see smartphones being used at weddings and sporting events, then I will start to believe DSLRs are becoming obsolete. That is my personal litmus test.

I have yet to see a smartphone, or even a point and shoot (not sure about mirrorless), be able to take shots of a full speed layup or get into the thick of the action, or take shots in such low light, I need ISO 25600. They might be out there, but I haven't seen them. Once I start to see that kind of progress, I can start to rethink my gear. Otherwise, I really don't get into all the rumors of DSLRs becoming extinct. I have seen those same rumors for over a 1/2 decade now. The extinction of EFS glass has now exceeded an entire decade too, as a related topic.

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