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Thread started 25 Dec 2014 (Thursday) 10:15
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DSLR soon obsolete

 
benji25
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Jan 14, 2015 14:38 |  #121

cali92rs wrote in post #17382280 (external link)
I think with FF, DSLRs are here to stay for a while. But APS-C DSLRs are in real trouble, especially once volume of mirrorless becomes high enough where they can lower their prices to Rebel/D3XXX prices.


I don't see how this would be the case at all. They already have FF mirror-less sensors so to say FF any less prone is not true. If anything FF would be in more trouble because the mirror-less FF cost savings would be greater than the crop sensor.


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Jan 14, 2015 15:28 |  #122

benji25 wrote in post #17382360 (external link)
I don't see how this would be the case at all. They already have FF mirror-less sensors so to say FF any less prone is not true. If anything FF would be in more trouble because the mirror-less FF cost savings would be greater than the crop sensor.

Because the professional FF market is a lot less dynamic and pros aren't as willing to trust a less "established" technology. Inertia more than anything else.
Not saying it won't happen, just saying it will happen after APS-C, because the amateurs/hobbyists are more willing to make compromises for the sake of convenience.


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Charlie
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Jan 14, 2015 15:28 |  #123

JeffreyG wrote in post #17374750 (external link)
It's crippled when it is worse, whatever the reason.

First Sony A-mount mirrorless hit the market with a bunch of hype about 12 fps. The same BS was suggested, about how these cameras were the end of SLR due to speed. But in reality these cameras stopped focus adjustment completely after the first shot, and the EVF locked up, only showing the first shot. It was one of the biggest disconnects between hype and reality I've seen.......

.....until the A6000. "Fastest AF in the world" happens to be not especially good for sports. I've used it, I know.

So either these cameras are crippled somehow, or mirrorless cameras are fundamentally unsuited to action and sports.

I somewhat agree with this. "Fastest AF + 12 fps" certainly sounds good, but there are minor details that must be accounted for.

blackout..... DSLR has hardly any, and you can still track. I only own two mirrorless, and the blackout is pretty unacceptable if fast sports is your bread and butter. On a technical issue, I think it's possible that mirrorless have 0 blackout, and could have the upper hand in the future, just not the way it is now (look at smartphones, some have no blackout issues when taking photos at a blistering rate).

EVF readout..... if you're not using fast glass and light levels are low, you can get pretty horrible readout. the pace will slow down, and you wont get the typical fast 120fps readout. At best the EVF readout can mimmic the human eye (OVF).... at best. It's good when the light is good, but once light is poor, it struggles.

as for tracking, I think mirrorless potentially have the edge. Facial recognition works well with mirrorless, and most DSLR's dont have that feature. You can register certain people, so the potential is very high with mirrorless, however, it's not all there yet. Mirrorless is highly reliant on tech advances, where DSLR's arent. In theory, mirrorless should be able to take out DSLR's, but these minor issues become major issues that are not easy to overcome.


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Jan 14, 2015 16:13 as a reply to  @ post 17382280 |  #124

A point bypassed in the mirrorless argument is that Canon has long offered high-performance digital cameras without mirrors. It goes back 15 years to when the first of Canon 's "G" series cameras (external link) were placed on sale, back in a bygone era when the fashionable term was "rangefinder."

Canon has offered several generations of "G" series cameras of increasing capabilities in those 15 years, and at no time , did any one hint that those units were going to eliminate the parallel models of Canon DSLR's. The release date of the first Canon "G" camera, the G1, was a few months after the first Canon-built DSLR, the D30.

Had there been magic in the mirrorless, or rangefinder concept, Canon might have given up on the 20 or so DSLR's released in the last 15 years, but they didn't for some reason.




  
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light_pilgrim
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Jan 15, 2015 00:35 |  #125

I think mirrorless will replace DSLR where size and weight matters: street, landscape, people. Professional sport, wildlife will stay with DSLR for now. Studio- they anyway use medium format.


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tat3406
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Jan 15, 2015 01:38 |  #126

DSLR can do everything mirrorless do, if DSLR use Hybrid viewfinder and electronic shutter.
The only different only size form factor, but not everyone like smaller camera.


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frankchn
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Jan 15, 2015 02:25 |  #127

it's not a true chicken and egg proposition - Sony need only release the A9 (assuming it's a pro sports body) with a range of super teles (e.g. 70-200/2.8 OSS, 300/2.8 OSS, 400/2.8 OSS). i.e. the chicken and egg can be released simultaneously

Yes, but it is a large investment to develop high quality telephotos, and with the way Sony prices those things (the Sony G 500 f/4 is $13k -- $1k more expensive than Canon's 600 f/4L IS II, and it doesn't have in-lens IS). They will have to change how they price those things (among other things) to be competitive in pro sports.

Charlie wrote in post #17382458 (external link)
blackout..... DSLR has hardly any, and you can still track. I only own two mirrorless, and the blackout is pretty unacceptable if fast sports is your bread and butter. On a technical issue, I think it's possible that mirrorless have 0 blackout, and could have the upper hand in the future, just not the way it is now (look at smartphones, some have no blackout issues when taking photos at a blistering rate).

Yeah. The 1DX has a mirror blackout of 60ms, not seeing that yet on any mirrorless cameras, but I don't doubt they will get there with faster processors. Not there yet though.

Charlie wrote in post #17382458 (external link)
as for tracking, I think mirrorless potentially have the edge. Facial recognition works well with mirrorless, and most DSLR's dont have that feature. You can register certain people, so the potential is very high with mirrorless, however, it's not all there yet. Mirrorless is highly reliant on tech advances, where DSLR's arent. In theory, mirrorless should be able to take out DSLR's, but these minor issues become major issues that are not easy to overcome.

In practice, I found that the EOS iTR AF in the 1DX to work fairly well when tracking people and faces in all 61-point mode, so the difference may not be as large as people think it is.




  
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Jan 15, 2015 02:37 |  #128

cali92rs wrote in post #17382280 (external link)
But APS-C DSLRs are in real trouble, especially once volume of mirrorless becomes high enough where they can lower their prices to Rebel/D3XXX prices.

Thing is volume will not get high enough until the mirrorless sellers price them level with DSLRs that consumers will be comparing them against when purchasing


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Jan 15, 2015 05:20 |  #129

smythie wrote in post #17383290 (external link)
Thing is volume will not get high enough until the mirrorless sellers price them level with DSLRs that consumers will be comparing them against when purchasing

The a6000 kit sells for $600 bucks...cheaper than the T5i, for a camera that does more than the 70D and is very close to the 7D.

The Sony A7II body sells for $100 less than the 6D, and has a better sensor + in body image stabilization.


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Jan 15, 2015 07:03 |  #130

And yet even with those price differentials, they aren't taking out DSLRs. It will be quite some time yet, no matter how we pick and choose which attributes to tout from the mirrorless contenders. ;) Let's just say "SOON" in the title = a handful of years at the minimum.


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mystik610
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Jan 15, 2015 08:15 |  #131

TeamSpeed wrote in post #17383449 (external link)
And yet even with those price differentials, they aren't taking out DSLRs. It will be quite some time yet, no matter how we pick and choose which attributes to tout from the mirrorless contenders. ;) Let's just say "SOON" in the title = a handful of years at the minimum.

Yeah "soon" is highly relative. As is "obsolete".

If we think in terms of the technology, then mirrorless is within a few years of surpassing the capabilities of DSLR's. and making mirrored designs obsolete.

If we think in terms of consumer reception/perception, we're probably many years away. Market perceptions consumer buying habits, and ultimately, product design, evolve at a slower pace than the technology progresses. Particularly true because many consumers in the camera market have a lot invested in lenses, so there's a natural resistance to change (as evidenced by many of the opinions voiced here)


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Jan 17, 2015 17:21 |  #132

I have a different view - or a different angle - I am seeing loads of Chinese tourists around the world with the cheaper DSLRs around their necks - the future of the Japanese companies - Canon, Nikon, Sony and Olympus mainly, will be in what new products they can come up with for the Chinese consumer, and how they can make sales in this area. I think those consumers still like lower end products from Nikon and Canon. If that segment of the market takes to mirrorless, then its a game changer. But for the moment, Nikon and Canon are keeping pumping out the amateur models to keep the DSLR market going.


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The ­ Dark ­ Knight
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Jan 18, 2015 13:34 |  #133

britinjapan wrote in post #17387272 (external link)
I have a different view - or a different angle - I am seeing loads of Chinese tourists around the world with the cheaper DSLRs around their necks - the future of the Japanese companies - Canon, Nikon, Sony and Olympus mainly, will be in what new products they can come up with for the Chinese consumer, and how they can make sales in this area. I think those consumers still like lower end products from Nikon and Canon. If that segment of the market takes to mirrorless, then its a game changer. But for the moment, Nikon and Canon are keeping pumping out the amateur models to keep the DSLR market going.

This is interesting. My point of view is limited to the USA, but whenever I go to a tourist-heavy city/area (I live in one in San Francisco), most of the Chinese tourists I see have mirrorless cameras. Sony and Olympus products seem particularly prevalent.

The people that have cheap DSLRs with kit lenses tend to be American tourists.




  
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Jan 18, 2015 16:09 |  #134

TeamSpeed wrote in post #17383449 (external link)
And yet even with those price differentials, they aren't taking out DSLRs. It will be quite some time yet, no matter how we pick and choose which attributes to tout from the mirrorless contenders. ;) Let's just say "SOON" in the title = a handful of years at the minimum.

I'd love to see sales figures from this christmas for the A6000. They must have sold a ton of them as they were pretty much giving them away.


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Jan 18, 2015 16:20 |  #135

The Dark Knight wrote in post #17388414 (external link)
This is interesting. My point of view is limited to the USA, but whenever I go to a tourist-heavy city/area (I live in one in San Francisco), most of the Chinese tourists I see have mirrorless cameras. Sony and Olympus products seem particularly prevalent.

The people that have cheap DSLRs with kit lenses tend to be American tourists.

I've still only ever seen one mirrorless body, aside from my own, out in the wild. It was an X-E2 in Manhattan this past Christmas. Otherwise all I see when going out are a sea of DSLRs and smartphones.


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