One thought, is I would go to playback 3 option 2 and turn on the AF point display in playback, even in AI servo it will show which point locked if a point did indeed lock. You can check these in DPP now, but if you get a few passes in game it can be helpful to see what it is hitting and make adjustments accordingly (is it moving off the intened point is is actually too slow, does it need to have the accel/decel speed adjusted, etc.)
With the girls basketball it looks almost like it stayed with the girl in white. I also have first and second shutter priority set to focus (your first priority seems ok) it's the 2nd that affects everything after that first grabbing focus, so if that's more toward release that might be what allows it to fire when you're not in focus on the tracking point. I have used case 2 from time to time so I don't think that's the cause, but it might be worth trying out a different case to see if it will improve the results. If you go off what the manual says, basketball is an example of case 4. I try to generally choose a case based on logic and try two or three modes at the beginning of a season to see where I'm having the most luck, and if I feel I'm missing images early in a game I'll change it up accordingly.