Tom Reichner wrote in post #18713738
It's not at all about when Canon will make something that I like - I have no doubt, as you say, that that will happen within a couple of years.
What it's all about is when the Canon camera that I like finally falls way way down to a price that I think is worth it.
I still shoot a 1D4 because none of the more recent, more capable Canon bodies have yet fallen to a low enough price point. I waited seemingly forever for used copies of the original 1Dx to drop down to the $1500 level, and it just never happened, so I finally gave up on that. Now I want a used 5D4 for around $1,700, and it seems like I'm going to have to wait at least another year and a half for that to happen.
If Canon releases a fully capable, not-at-all-crippled-in-any-way mirrorless body in 2020, and it is priced at around $6,000, then I don't think that used prices would drop down to the $3,000 point until 2028 or 2030 or thereabouts.
Camera bodies have been holding their value way way better than they used to. In early 2009 a 50D was, like, almost a thousand bucks - then by early 2010 you could buy a used one for $400. That kind of fast depreciation just doesn't happen anymore, which REALLY sucks for someone such as myself.
Anyway, that's why I think it'll be many years before a top of the line, flagship model Canon mirrorless body will be able to be had for $2,000 to $3,000.
I used to track this stuff in its ability to lose value...about 35% per year in decreased value on the market was what was happening 13 years ago.
dSLR prices had always dropped like a stone, with only a few exceptions like the 5D (classic). Historically Canon dSLRs had a market value half-life of only two years...every two years, lose 50% of value...$8000, two years later $4000, two years later $2000, two years later $1000. Consider the fact that the typical dSLR has historically depreciated at a 36% annual rate.
From one of my posts about 7-8 years ago...
- The Canon EOS 1D MarkIII was introduced in 2007 at about $3800-3900; one sold on POTN a around Oct 2011 for $1900, another was listed at $2250, another listed in April 2011 was $1975.
- The $6900 1DsII launched in 9/04 had sales on POTN for $3200-3500 in Oct 2008, so there are cameras that seem to not slide as fast. But looking at 1Ds and 20D and 350D, etc. they did generally follow that 2 year economic half life...$8000 1Ds's that sold for $1000-1500 on the used market eventually, for example.
- The 1DII had a bit less depreciation, like the 5D which had resisted that plummet in value until the 5DII came out..
At the time, if you had $1500 new camera which sold at $1200 refurbished by Canon, at the end of year 1 it was worth $800 (about half of the new price), at the end of year 2 it was worth $520, at the end of year 3 it was worth $340. at the end of year 4 it was worth $220
If you bought a refurb after two years the $1200 was worth $520, or $680 depreciation, whereas if you bought a 2 year old camera used at $520 and it was worth $340 or only $180 depreciation. So when dealing in purchase of depreciating equipment with the risk of fickle moods about the hobby, the used market camera cuts your risk even compared to buying a refurb!
The 5DIII was launched in March 2012 at $2700. someone ended up selling it on POTN in Feb. 2018 for just under $1300...6 years later (no longer the 2 year half-life!)