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Thread started 07 Feb 2019 (Thursday) 11:32
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Interchangeable lens camera shipment data Jan-Dec 2018

 
dolina
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Feb 07, 2019 11:32 |  #1

IMAGE: https://i.imgur.com/W55w2Rr.gif

The above graph on interchangeable lens camera shipment December data from CIPA: While the market for interchangeable lens cameras and lenses is down, it’s been the digital compact market (external link) (point & shoots) which has suffered most, although the carnage of the last five years seems to be levelling off. Holding up the interchangeables market is the mirrorless segment, which according tomore detailed CIPA figures, (external link) in fact increased year-on-year sales compared to 2017 by 1.4 percent in volume and 23 percent in value.


So while compacts are falling way behind, DSLRs are falling behind as well, which has resonances with that old joke about the two hikers being pursued by a bear. DSLR’s still outsell mirrrorless cameras by 6.62 million (61.5%) to 4.14 million (38.5%), but in dollars terms, the value of the two segments is about equal.

Source: https://www.insideimag​ing.com.au …ead-in-cipa-camera-stats/ (external link)

Canon recently said (external link) they expect two more years of market shrinking until market stabilizes.

Source: https://www.mirrorless​rumors.com …he-digital-camera-market/ (external link)

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Post edited over 4 years ago by Wilt.
     
Feb 07, 2019 12:38 |  #2

dolina wrote in post #18806595 (external link)
[GIFS ARE NOT RENDERED IN QUOTES]
Canon recently said (external link) they expect two more years of market shrinking until market stabilizes.

Source: https://www.mirrorless​rumors.com …he-digital-camera-market/ (external link)

I have been speculating that the steady-state volume of dSLRs sold would perhaps end up at levels not dissimilar to SLR volumes of the mid-/late-1990s. Somewhat in line with my thinking, Canon expectation of two more years until market stabilizes would seem to exhibit same line of thinking, although perhaps larger volumes than seen in 1990s. That seems logical in view of the fact that continued advances in sensor noise/resolution/AF will account for greater numbers of new bodies than when (in the 1990s) you bought new film rather than buying new bodies for sensor/processor/AF


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dolina
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Feb 07, 2019 12:53 |  #3

Pekka the data shows shipment data for Jan-Dec 2018 vs whole of 2017 vs whole of 2016.


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Feb 07, 2019 16:25 |  #4

I was curious what could have driven the substatial bump in April 2018.

No new ILC bodies were reelased in April or March, but here's what was released in Feb 2018;

Feb 27th --- Sony a7 III
Feb 26th --- Canon EOS M50 Canon EOS Rebel T7 Canon EOS 4000D
Feb 21st --- Pentax K-1 Mark II
Feb 15th --- Fujifilm X-H1
Feb 13th --- Panasonic Lumix DC-GX9
Feb 07th --- Olympus PEN E-PL9
Feb 01st --- Panasonic Lumix DC-GF10 (GF90)


I'd be curious to see how much of that bump was A7III vs. the 3 affordable Canon's


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gjl711
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Feb 07, 2019 18:18 |  #5

Unfortunately CPIA doesn't split out the data by manufacturer.


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Post edited over 4 years ago by Wilt. (2 edits in all)
     
Feb 07, 2019 18:59 as a reply to  @ CyberDyneSystems's post |  #6

My interpretation of the curves is that what is displayed is the concept of consumer 'seasonality'...

  • Spring peak...in anticipation of summer holidays, folks buy cameras to familiarize themselves with them
  • Summer slump...folks are on holiday, not buying but using cameras
  • Fall peak...in preparation for Xmas gift giving
  • Winter lull...so much of the demand of Fall has tapped dry the pipeline of demand, and users are confined indoors due to weather

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Feb 08, 2019 06:01 |  #7

Usually these are also shipments into channel, not when the unit was sold to the end customer....




  
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dolina
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Post edited over 4 years ago by dolina. (3 edits in all)
     
Feb 08, 2019 07:30 |  #8

Adding the time the unit was sold would complicate the chart and add work for CIPA.

IMAGE: https://i.imgur.com/ABNQEgR.png

The table above shows the CIPA sales data from 2015-2018 (external link), CIPA's projected camera sales for 2019 (external link) & Canon's projected camera sales for 2020 (external link).

Based on the CIPA 2019 & Canon 2020 sales figure I am fairly confident that companies like Canon & Nikon may not release any more new DSLR (Reflex) models anymore before July 2020 and instead put in all their R&D money into more mirrorless camera bodies and lenses that are equal or exceed the features, capability and accuracy of DSLRs sold today.

Canon CEO also noted mirrorless camera sales aren't significantly adding to its bottom line, but are instead significantly eating into the sales of DSLRs. If any R&D capital is going to cannibalize your money makers during your current product's mid-cycle then you may as well just release new generation of mirrorless camera models at the end of the product cycle of your DSLRs.

Personally, I would prefer 1 more generation of DSLRs within the next 17.5 months but market forces may force the 1D X Mark II, 5D Mark IV, 5Ds / 5Ds R, 6D Mark II and 7D Mark II to be the last full frame and high end APS-C DSLR models to be developed.

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Interchangeable lens camera shipment data Jan-Dec 2018
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