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Thread started 24 Apr 2019 (Wednesday) 11:47
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Accelerated market contraction for DSLRs

 
Left ­ Handed ­ Brisket
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Apr 24, 2019 11:47 |  #1

Hits keep on coming. Placing the RP at such a low price point has to be a result of this "acceleration". APSC is going down market too. Interesting times.


https://www.canonrumor​s.com …1-2019-financial-results/ (external link)

In the first quarter, sales of interchangeable-lens cameras were down 19% to 850 thousand units. This reflects the combined impact of accelerated market contraction for DSLRs, in particular, entry-level models, and economic slowdown in China, which is a sizeable market for interchangeable-lens cameras.

The habit of capturing images with smartphones with improved cameras has become a part of the daily lives of consumers. As a result, the market for entry-level DSLRs is contracting at a pace that exceeds the outlook we had at the beginning of the year. That said, we expect the user base of professionals and advanced-amateur, people who value the image quality and expressive possibilities afforded by cameras with large sensors and an abundance of interchangeable-lenses to remain. For the market overall, however, we expect the trend of market contraction to continue for some time.


In light of these circumstances, we decided to reexamine our full-year projections for the market and our own unit sales. We now expect the market and our own unit sales to decline 17% to 8.6 million units and

4.2 million units, respectively.

Mirrorless cameras, known for being small and lightweight, are increasing their presence in the market. Amid this situation, we will steadily shift our focus from DSLR to mirrorless cameras with the aim of maintaining our overwhelming competitiveness, which we have built upon DSLRs.

...

Additionally, we plan to release six new models of RF lenses within the year.


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Apr 24, 2019 12:43 |  #2

Interesting read. Lots of fodder to do some speculating like, have we seen the last EF / EF-S lens? Are DSLRs a dying format? Will the next 1D be a mirrorless?


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Left ­ Handed ­ Brisket
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Post edited 6 months ago by Left Handed Brisket. (2 edits in all)
     
Apr 24, 2019 12:58 |  #3

gjl711 wrote in post #18850887 (external link)
Interesting read. Lots of fodder to do some speculating like, have we seen the last EF / EF-S lens? Are DSLRs a dying format? Will the next 1D be a mirrorless?

LOL

Fresh topics.

But yeah, it does bring that stuff back up. As much as they seem to be repeating the "new lenses are coming" line they haven't given much info about bodies. They are saying entry level is the line feeling the most pressure, but I tend to feel that is marketing talking trying to paint a rosy picture while they figure out how to make pro mirrorless cameras.


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Apr 24, 2019 14:56 |  #4

RiP DSLR - 2019


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Post edited 6 months ago by Wilt. (3 edits in all)
     
Apr 24, 2019 19:02 |  #5

gjl711 wrote in post #18850887 (external link)
Interesting read. Lots of fodder to do some speculating like, have we seen the last EF / EF-S lens? Are DSLRs a dying format? Will the next 1D be a mirrorless?

As I have said a number of times, the camera volumes may be retracting to the point that dSLR volumes are not too much different from SLR volumes of the mid1990's...in 1993 about 27k total camera volume, of which the SLR was an unstated fraction (not shown in charts)!

If you merely looked at 2012, one can see that the total volume for both dSLR and mirrorless is only about 20k units!


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Apr 24, 2019 21:05 |  #6

Read the report and financials....what's most staggering IMO isn't necessarily the decline in sales, as we all know what's happening....the big standpout is the massive decline in operating profit from their imaging system business unit (cameras, lenses, etc). Sales revenue is down 17% year over year, but operating profit is down 81%! Their operating margins fell from 12% to 2%.

The report shows a slight improvement in variable costs, and attributes the drop in operating margins to declining prices.

So as a business, Canon is getting hit on two sides...declining unit sales, and competition putting pressure on prices. Sales of the EOS R and EOS RP are captured in their Q1 reports, so it's clear that this strategy of trying to be the low cost leader is not a realistic path to growth or even stability. As a point of contrast, for the past couple of years Sony has also been posting declining sales (both in dollars and revenue), but earnings are growing year over year as they've successfully pivoted to higher margin products.

So yeah...the path forward isn't necessarily a matter of sales volume, but higher contribution margins...and to achieve that, you need products that consumers are willing to pay top dollar for. Pro mirrorless bodies are what Canon needs to focus on....Canon has the branding, but to be successful there, the products have to be competitive from a performance standpoint as the market dynamics for higher margin stuff are different from the entry level DSLR's that Canon has banked on in the past.



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Apr 29, 2019 23:57 |  #7

.

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #18850867 (external link)
.
The habit of capturing images with smartphones with improved cameras has become a part of the daily lives of consumers. As a result, the market for entry-level DSLRs is contracting at a pace that exceeds the outlook we had at the beginning of the year.
.

.
Wait ..... let me get this right ..... is Canon saying that at the beginning of this year - just 5 months ago - they didn't realize the pace at which smartphone use was expanding as part of consumers' daily lives, but now that they do realize it they have to readjust their projections?

How in the freakin' heck could they not have known this 5 months ago? . The whole world population has seen this trend growing steadily for, like, 10 years now. . Sheesh!


.


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Apr 30, 2019 00:01 |  #8

Wilt wrote in post #18851062 (external link)
As I have said a number of times, the camera volumes may be retracting to the point that dSLR volumes are not too much different from SLR volumes of the mid1990's...in 1993 about 27k total camera volume, of which the SLR was an unstated fraction (not shown in charts)!

If you merely looked at 2012, one can see that the total volume for both dSLR and mirrorless is only about 20k units!

.
What are you saying, Wilt? . That in 2012 only 20,000 DSLRs and mirrorless cameras were sold?

Really? . Because it sure looks like that is what you are saying. . I don't know how your wording could be taken any other way.


.


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"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
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Apr 30, 2019 07:26 |  #9

And Canon tries to turn the ship around. The layoffs (external link) begin.


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Post edited 6 months ago by mystik610. (2 edits in all)
     
Apr 30, 2019 07:51 |  #10

gjl711 wrote in post #18853635 (external link)
And Canon tries to turn the ship around. The layoffs (external link) begin.

It sucks for those 60 individuals, but it's not a significant number of headcount given that they likely employ thousands in the US. Digging into the numbers, they are cutting their operating expenses down 49 million compared to 2018....22.5 million down compared to their initial 2019 forecast. So yeah cutting 60 employees isn't going to cover that and they'll have to squeeze in other places too.

But yes public companies with a top line getting decimated often look at making operating expense cuts to appease shareholders in the short-term. Unfortunately this often leads to a degradation in service/product quality and marketing/sales effectiveness....at least in the short-term until they realize that you can't cut you legs off and expect to compete in the race in the long-run...particularly when your competition isn't letting their foot off the gas. Very hard to invest in a long-term strategy when you're cutting expenses in the short-term.


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Apr 30, 2019 07:56 |  #11
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We can't stop progress even if it is a big step backwards. We all known cell cameras don't take photos equal to a good DSLR. But if people only buy cell phones with cameras then DSLR cameras will go the way of large format and medium format cameras. I suspect there will always be pro gear to buy. But if consumers aren't buying anything better than cell cameras we can't expect entry level DSLRs to not be affected in a big way. It won't be the first time convenience replaced better quality. Many would say digital cameras did the same thing even though they eventually became the equal of film cameras. We may see the time when cell cameras shoot really good photos. At any rate what is to be will be.




  
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Apr 30, 2019 19:54 |  #12

Tom Reichner wrote in post #18853519 (external link)
.
What are you saying, Wilt? . That in 2012 only 20,000 DSLRs and mirrorless cameras were sold?

Really? . Because it sure looks like that is what you are saying. . I don't know how your wording could be taken any other way.

.

The chart I referred to neglected to state the obvious, that the counts were THOUSANDS and not single units. Multiply figures by 1000


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May 03, 2019 03:48 as a reply to  @ Jeff_56's post |  #13

A heck of a lot of the fim that used to go through cameras went through compacts usually with very cheap single element plastic lenses. A significant proportion was in the 110 format too. It really didn't take digital long to better that market. Phone cameras were not far short of 110 film from the get go. Most users were quite happy with the results they got from 110, and nothing has been that bad for at least a decade.

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May 03, 2019 04:01 |  #14

It's obvious that for the non pro/hobbyist DSLRs are a dead duck, cell phone cameras are getting better all the time, and in a world were the vast majority just want to share images via social media the image quality in more than good enough, plus the simplicity of take and post over using a DSLR where in most cases you have to download to your computer and then post to social media, it's an extra step most don't want to take ( and many probably don't even have a computer these days).


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May 03, 2019 06:27 |  #15

whiteflyer wrote in post #18855340 (external link)
It's obvious that for the non pro/hobbyist DSLRs are a dead duck, cell phone cameras are getting better all the time, and in a world were the vast majority just want to share images via social media the image quality in more than good enough, plus the simplicity of take and post over using a DSLR where in most cases you have to download to your computer and then post to social media, it's an extra step most don't want to take ( and many probably don't even have a computer these days).

Camera manufacturers are partly to blame here because they never recognized the social media trend of wanting to post things as they happen by simplifying the process of taking an image shot on a standalone camera and posting it online without having to download the images. Wifi transfer of images is slow and half-assed...I bring my camera out when I'm with the family all the time, but even when my wife wants to post something to her Instagram, I find myself taking another set of photos using her phone because it's just such a PITA process to send stuff to her via my camera.


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Accelerated market contraction for DSLRs
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