Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

john crossley wrote in post #19045236
Well, I’ve come to the following conclusion:
Some people will be infected with COVID-19, some people won’t.
Some people will die from the infection, some people won’t.

...And you have a much higher probability of both occuring in a place like New York City than Bozeman Montana.

Wilt wrote in post #19045235
Poking around a bit more, I discovered that while the more detailed data/graphs is available for the US, when you go down to the state level, there is no detailed information about daily new cases and daily deaths by state. That is unfortunate because some states are larger than entire nations, and it would be useful to stats on places like California by itself and be able to compare New York state's progress vs. other individual states.

i don't know how you're missing it...maybe you're not scrolling down far enough...it's all there...except the states don't list critical cases...i do wish they had more previous days listed.

I just plain overlooked the information, doh

Wilt wrote in post #19045242
Yes, Renata, what you said is true. My point it that what appears to make countries effective or not against SARS-CoV-2, is NOT the type of government (democratic). Rather, the 'style' of government (autocratic) might have a lot to do with that instead, not so much the structure of the government. OTOH how would one explain Taiwan?

SARS experience.

Archibald wrote in post #19045333
SARS experience.

Indeed, that may be the key.
But what about Canandian response to SARS-CoV-2, after their SARS experience? (time to do a bit of additional research...)

Wilt wrote in post #19045353
Indeed, that may be the key.
But what about Canandian response to SARS-CoV-2, after their SARS experience? (time to do a bit of additional research...)

I guess they learned from the other countries with experience, maybe.

I don’t remember a lot about SARS and Toronto. I was in Hong Kong in 2005, one year after SARS. Every day there were people wearing masks cleaning escalator and regular handrails, door handles, etc. Pretty much everything.

I expect to see that here for the next year or so.

Capn Jack wrote in post #19045357
I guess they learned from the other countries with experience, maybe.

Is the 'they' you refer to Taiwan, or is it Toronto?

I just did some research and Toronto does have 2225 cases to date, with first case in late January, a few more cases in February, and then a rise that started around Feb 29. Interestingly they only have about 10% of cases get serious enough for ICU, with about half that group then needing intubation. Lower than the more typical 20% getting to ICU level of severity. Toronto's population (2.9 Million) is about 52% more than the population of the Santa Clara County CA population, but their case load is only 42% higher. So while the control level is not bad, it is nowhere as good as Taiwan!
I could not find death stats for Toronto city, but the province has 3.54% mortality of the reported coronvirus cases, which is again not much better than Santa Clara County CA.

You know why China got it under control so quickly? Everyone was Kung Flu Fighting.

Wilt wrote in post #19045360
Is the 'they' you refer to Taiwan, or is it Toronto?

I just did some research and Toronto does have 2225 cases to date, with first case in late January, a few more cases in February, and then a rise that started around Feb 29. Interestingly they only have about 10% of cases get serious enough for ICU, with about half that group then needing intubation. Lower than the more typical 20% getting to ICU level of severity. Toronto's population (2.9 Million) is about 52% more than the population of the Santa Clara County CA population, but their case load is only 42% higher. So while the control level is not bad, it is nowhere as good as Taiwan!
I could not find death stats for Toronto city, but the province has 3.54% mortality of the reported coronvirus cases, which is again not much better than Santa Clara County CA.

I meant Canada, and it was a guess. Canada does seem to have a substantial Asian population, but I've only mostly have been in the Vancouver area the past few years. It wouldn't surprise me that the Canadians solicited advice from elsewhere, or from within their population. I was supposed to go to Toronto the beginning of March and the customer and I decided it was best to cancel the trip.

digital paradise wrote in post #19045372
You know why China got it under control so quickly? Everyone was Kung Flu Fighting.

I've afraid that JOKE will be the death of me. Sounds like the stuff we text our kids.....

Wilt wrote in post #19045151
While those statistics are valuable, they do lack more specific information which is currently being used to assess just how successful we are in our efforts

• number of cases going into ICU
  
• number of new deaths per day
  

I think the number of hospitalized is a good indicator for effect of efforts. How bad infected people get, not really.

soeren wrote in post #19045515
I think the number of hospitalized is a good indicator for effect of efforts. How bad infected people get, not really.

Here's a good site that uses models to understand the numbers available: https://epiforecasts.i​o/covid/posts/global/ and the specifics for USA: https://epiforecasts.i​o …s/national/unit​ed-states/.
Unfortunately, the latest estimations of doubling time and R0 are from April 2nd - but I hope they'll update.
(The calculations are done by the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.)

soeren wrote in post #19045515
I think the number of hospitalized is a good indicator for effect of efforts. How bad infected people get, not really.

Perhaps that is true in Denmark. Here in the US, that is not always true!

I have a friend from college, who lives with his wife in Arizona, about 45 minutes outside of Phoenix They both recently developed fevers, body aches, general weakness...and they do NOT QUALIFY to get tested to confirm COVID-19 !They were told to shelter in place at home. If something should worsen and one or both pass away in their home, they will NOT BE COUNTED in the coronavirus count of cases or deaths, because they were NEVER TESTED!

That scenario, staying out of the hospital yet passing away from COVID-19 so the statistics are lower than reality of spread, is NOT a good sign at all! Yet that is exactly what a physician in the NYC area reported as actually occurring!

Wilt wrote in post #19045743
Perhaps that is true in Denmark. Here in the US, that is not always true!

I have a friend from college, who lives with his wife in Arizona, about 45 minutes outside of Phoenix They both recently developed fevers, body aches, general weakness...and they do NOT QUALIFY to get tested to confirm COVID-19 !They were told to shelter in place at home. If something should worsen and one or both pass away in their home, they will NOT BE COUNTED in the coronavirus count of cases or deaths, because they were NEVER TESTED!

That scenario, staying out of the hospital yet passing away from COVID-19 so the statistics are lower than reality of spread, is NOT a good sign at all!

Yes we have people staying at home in bed with covid19 as well and Lots of people being positive without symptoms or getting tested. Thus the first significant sign of effect from our actions will be seen in the number of hospitalized, then in people in intensive care and on ventilators and after some weeks finally in the Death numbers
But yes it Perhaps apply better to countries with our healthcare system