Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

In my last post in this thread I shared my occupation as a farmer and some details about the work we have began in my area. That has been moving along well with many suppliers filling the needs as they come up, seed, fuel,chemicals, vaccines, livestock feed etc. The methods often take longer and more planning is involved but we are all starting to become familiar with the new trend or way of doing business. So, every few days it seems there is a new obstacle and plans change, don't know how long this will last, that of course is the big question for most of the world now.
Just wanted to mention to give you even more to think about,many of us farmers are producing perishable products. Those products have a beginning and an end. I'm involved in the beginning and middle in my small farm operation, some neighbors are producing from beginning to near the end finished product, some of these guys I work for for added income. I've always believed that supply and demand will influence my decisions the most as well as prices, weather is always a concern throughout the year and can change my income drastically, it's just part of it, can't change it.
Now some of my neighbors have received calls not to bring finished cattle to market. They have too many, my guess is lack of help at those facilities, and do not want livestock to come in with out permission.

One pork plant has closed because of the virus, too many employees sick.
It is a large plant but the % of food from there is not enough for big concern yet.
Since many of these end of the production processing plants are located near large population centers this may be a new trend coming soon, it will greatly affect us all in the US and those we export to.

I'm going to make a prediction and hope I'm wrong. You may see prices go up dramatically, soon!
It should not happen but actually has been happening to you even before the virus, farmers do not set the prices you pay in the store. The price we receive for cattle now are 20 to 40% below that of two years ago and it is getting worse each day. The price you pay in the store is the same or higher and is probably going to get even more expensive. The price of beef in the store should have been dropping for the last 9 months, it did not.
There is enough in cold storage that there will not be a shortage for quite some time but I'm willing to wager that a shortage will be declared, that may be what you hear at the grocery store. If so, couldn't be further from the truth, there is no shortage, but a break in the supply chain.

It will have a trickle down affect, this will happen fast, much income/profit probably will be lost by many of us that are producing more food than we can use, for our customers that need and want to buy it but it may not be available in your store. Just remember, supply and demand, and our supply chain is about to break, there is a weak link and it's at the very end of production.
I sure hope I'm wrong about this!

Grizz1 wrote in post #19046105
The price we receive for cattle now are 20 to 40% below that of two years ago and it is getting worse each day. The price you pay in the store is the same or higher and is probably going to get even more expensive. The price of beef in the store should have been dropping for the last 9 months, it did not.
There is enough in cold storage that there will not be a shortage for quite some time but I'm willing to wager that a shortage will be declared, that may be what you hear at the grocery store. If so, couldn't be further from the truth, there is no shortage, but a break in the supply chain.

Investigative journalists should be on this.

OhLook wrote in post #19046109
Investigative journalists should be on this.

OhLook,It has happened all my life and seldom has anyone looked into it. I've never really understood why the public has not taken any interest in understanding the markets. We just all seem to think we will always have to pay more with each passing year, shouldn't be that way at all.

Grizz1 wrote in post #19046105
In my last post in this thread I shared my occupation as a farmer and some details about the work we have began in my area. That has been moving along well with many suppliers filling the needs as they come up, seed, fuel,chemicals, vaccines, livestock feed etc. The methods often take longer and more planning is involved but we are all starting to become familiar with the new trend or way of doing business. So, every few days it seems there is a new obstacle and plans change, don't know how long this will last, that of course is the big question for most of the world now.
Just wanted to mention to give you even more to think about,many of us farmers are producing perishable products. Those products have a beginning and an end. I'm involved in the beginning and middle in my small farm operation, some neighbors are producing from beginning to near the end finished product, some of these guys I work for for added income. I've always believed that supply and demand will influence my decisions the most as well as prices, weather is always a concern throughout the year and can change my income drastically, it's just part of it, can't change it.
Now some of my neighbors have received calls not to bring finished cattle to market. They have too many, my guess is lack of help at those facilities, and do not want livestock to come in with out permission.

One pork plant has closed because of the virus, too many employees sick.
It is a large plant but the % of food from there is not enough for big concern yet.
Since many of these end of the production processing plants are located near large population centers this may be a new trend coming soon, it will greatly affect us all in the US and those we export to.

I'm going to make a prediction and hope I'm wrong. You may see prices go up dramatically, soon!
It should not happen but actually has been happening to you even before the virus, farmers do not set the prices you pay in the store. The price we receive for cattle now are 20 to 40% below that of two years ago and it is getting worse each day. The price you pay in the store is the same or higher and is probably going to get even more expensive. The price of beef in the store should have been dropping for the last 9 months, it did not.
There is enough in cold storage that there will not be a shortage for quite some time but I'm willing to wager that a shortage will be declared, that may be what you hear at the grocery store. If so, couldn't be further from the truth, there is no shortage, but a break in the supply chain.

It will have a trickle down affect, this will happen fast, much income/profit probably will be lost by many of us that are producing more food than we can use, for our customers that need and want to buy it but it may not be available in your store. Just remember, supply and demand, and our supply chain is about to break, there is a weak link and it's at the very end of production.
I sure hope I'm wrong about this!

the peak for Missouri is still projected to be 15 days away...it seems like it would only get worse for a while

It will be very interesting to watch the start of our world slowly returning to some sense of 'normalcy'.

I had been tracking Santa Clara Co CA (SCC) because in the early days it had about 1/3 of COVID-19 cases in the entire state (color magenta on the graphs)
Then I added Los Angeles Co CA (LAC) because I noticed that somehow, in spite of having a slower start than SCC, its cumulative case curve crossed over and surpassed SCC (color navy blue on the graphs)
Because my wife complained that the populations of SCC were so much smaller than LAC, I started to track the nine SF Bay area counties, since it had a population about 78% of LAC (color yellow on the graphs)
Lastly I added New York City go get an idea of how the prior three curved compared (green on the graphs).
The population size of NYC is somewhat close to the population size of the SF Bay Area counties.
Here is a graph of New Cases (each day) since March 1 thru Apr 13, thus far. I zoomed in more tightly so that the data for the CA counties can show better.

yeah, we did shelter in place with only 16 deaths...maybe a bit extreme, but the numbers don't really lie on it's effectiveness.

DreDaze wrote in post #19046119
the peak for Missouri is still projected to be 15 days away...it seems like it would only get worse for a while

You're probably correct. Locally it hasn't been too bad, we have had 11 total cases in my county, most of those have been released. We are being careful as it may still be a matter of time.

It seems to be in any of the larger cities first and that is where the markets are that are the end result I was talking about. We do have two large plants near me but the ones that are around 150 miles from me will likely have the most problems as it seems they already have/are. Those are the markets that our cattle need to go to.

The virus may wreak havoc here, not denying the possibility, just saying where I live social distancing can be accomplished without a lot of effort. Not so where many of the markets and warehouses are, located near larger population centers.
I do try to watch and track the numbers for any preparations I may need to make. My fear too, is if it hits hard in my rural area, we will not be well prepared , just don't have the facilities to care for high numbers of ill people.

Grizz1 wrote in post #19046105
In my last post in this thread I shared my occupation as a farmer and some details about the work we have began in my area. That has been moving along well with many suppliers filling the needs as they come up, seed, fuel,chemicals, vaccines, livestock feed etc. The methods often take longer and more planning is involved but we are all starting to become familiar with the new trend or way of doing business. So, every few days it seems there is a new obstacle and plans change, don't know how long this will last, that of course is the big question for most of the world now.
Just wanted to mention to give you even more to think about,many of us farmers are producing perishable products. Those products have a beginning and an end. I'm involved in the beginning and middle in my small farm operation, some neighbors are producing from beginning to near the end finished product, some of these guys I work for for added income. I've always believed that supply and demand will influence my decisions the most as well as prices, weather is always a concern throughout the year and can change my income drastically, it's just part of it, can't change it.
Now some of my neighbors have received calls not to bring finished cattle to market. They have too many, my guess is lack of help at those facilities, and do not want livestock to come in with out permission.

One pork plant has closed because of the virus, too many employees sick.
It is a large plant but the % of food from there is not enough for big concern yet.
Since many of these end of the production processing plants are located near large population centers this may be a new trend coming soon, it will greatly affect us all in the US and those we export to.

I'm going to make a prediction and hope I'm wrong. You may see prices go up dramatically, soon!
It should not happen but actually has been happening to you even before the virus, farmers do not set the prices you pay in the store. The price we receive for cattle now are 20 to 40% below that of two years ago and it is getting worse each day. The price you pay in the store is the same or higher and is probably going to get even more expensive. The price of beef in the store should have been dropping for the last 9 months, it did not.
There is enough in cold storage that there will not be a shortage for quite some time but I'm willing to wager that a shortage will be declared, that may be what you hear at the grocery store. If so, couldn't be further from the truth, there is no shortage, but a break in the supply chain.

It will have a trickle down affect, this will happen fast, much income/profit probably will be lost by many of us that are producing more food than we can use, for our customers that need and want to buy it but it may not be available in your store. Just remember, supply and demand, and our supply chain is about to break, there is a weak link and it's at the very end of production.
I sure hope I'm wrong about this!

May be time to change your farm model, I am certainly not suggestion to do this, but I much preferred to deal farm direct to consumers, rather than big box companies/distributors​. The hard working farmer as yourself always gets the short end of the deal, as well as consumers who buy at food clubs BJ's/Cosco/Sams and Super Markets with always increasing prices. The food clubs are a little better with pricing. Then factoring in a dry or over abundant wet season, once again the farmer loses out. Just a suggestion, have your local slaughter house do your butchering, and build yourself a dry aging box and sale farm direct. Produce a high quality product, and you will have repeat customers, as well as many new. The word spreads fast in communities, as well with help of the internet./website. This a typical conventional way of doing things. Then there is 100% all Grass-fed and Organic which is another market still keeping it farm direct. Cut out a portion of the middle man in your operation.

Just look at the famous Peter Luger's Steak House in NYC, actually Brooklyn, and the prices they gets for there dry aged cuts of beef at there restaurant . The place is always packed, why, because his beef is that good. I must add they do all there own dry aging, and have it down to a science.

What I suggested above is just a possible another way to supplement you income, as I believe you mentioned you raise crops, and cattle to be finished as your primary farming practice.

I wish you prosperous times ahead with what ever you decide to do, as farmers work hard, very hard.

Grizz1 wrote in post #19046116
OhLook,It has happened all my life and seldom has anyone looked into it. I've never really understood why the public has not taken any interest in understanding the markets. We just all seem to think we will always have to pay more with each passing year, shouldn't be that way at all.

We expect prices to rise because inflation has almost always been the rule, but creating an artificial shortage is something else again.

I just saw on the TV news that some farmers are having to till their crops back into the ground, destroying perfectly good vegetables, because they cannot get their crops to the end user buying customer! What's the story behind this waste of good food, when our grocery stores are not running over with excess produce?!

Food banks have to turn away families. Yet crops go unharvested.

Grizz1 wrote in post #19046128
You're probably correct. Locally it hasn't been too bad, we have had 11 total cases in my county, most of those have been released. We are being careful as it may still be a matter of time.

It seems to be in any of the larger cities first and that is where the markets are that are the end result I was talking about. We do have two large plants near me but the ones that are around 150 miles from me will likely have the most problems as it seems they already have/are. Those are the markets that our cattle need to go to.

The virus may wreak havoc here, not denying the possibility, just saying where I live social distancing can be accomplished without a lot of effort. Not so where many of the markets and warehouses are, located near larger population centers.
I do try to watch and track the numbers for any preparations I may need to make. My fear too, is if it hits hard in my rural area, we will not be well prepared, just don't have the facilities to care for high numbers of ill people.

Looks like social distancing is working well so hope it goes well for you. We are mid Canada and not an airline hub so we had better start. It is certainly not exponential. It looked like it was heading that way but dropped off quite a bit. The key is managing the start up properly.

I figure that there has to be a two weeks with no new case then a buffer period to be sure for a province to start opening up. I’m thinking non essential businesses and workplaces will start to open in mid May. Restaurants two weeks later. Our province anyway.
I expect to see international travel mandatory 2 week immediate self isolation in the city you land in for at least another 6 months or up to a year. Same for interprovincial provincial travel - 3 to 6 months. Border crossing between us and the USA 6 months to a year for non essential travel as well. If was was running the show that is what I’d do. it only takes one person to start it all over. The fines for not self isolating are huge.

I think the 2 meter rule will still apply loosely for a few months after things start to open up. If you can stay 2 meters away than do so. You have to get manufacturing and restaurants (with a restricted capacity) opened up. We will see people sanitizing stuff for a long time. We were in Hong Kong a year after SARS and they were still cleaning escalator and regular handrails, door handles, etc every day.

Probably the only 10 or less people gathering rule will apply well for a few months. All concerts and major events cancelled until at least until very late fall if not until next year.

Again this could change if that 15 minute quick check works, if there are lots of tests are available and are being done properly. They have to be reserved for the transportation industry, health care and essential workers first. A Canadian made one hr test was approved the other day.

Wilt wrote in post #19046140
I just saw on the TV news that some farmers are having to till their crops back into the ground, destroying perfectly good vegetables, because they cannot get their crops to the end user buying customer! What's the story behind this waste of good food, when our grocery stores are not running over with excess produce?!

Food banks have to turn away families. Yet crops go unharvested.

Unfortunately not all small farmers can do that from a cost factor of labor and packing houses, but big ag certainly can.

We certainly did, as well of other farmers in our community. A lot of citrus is grown in our area, most are Oranges and Grapefruits, I raised Myer lemons .

Its a great feeling to be able to give and not ask anything in return if you can, not all can.

digital paradise wrote in post #19046142
Again this could change if that 15 minute quick check works, if there are lots of tests are available and are being done properly. They have to be reserved for the transportation industry, health care and essential workers first. A Canadian made one hr test was approved the other day.

The way I see it, the 5-15 minute infection check only tells you if a person does not currently have the virus. Nothing prevents that person from encountering a symptomless carrier unknowingly onlyone hour or one day after the test was performed, the Negative status might become a Positive status (after the initial incubation).

Antiobodies check tells us if an individual is 'safe to have contact with', because they cannot acquire the virus and become a carrier. But everyone else (with no antibodies) are potential asymptomatic active carriers...you have no way of identifying those you need to truly stay away from.


The resolution to this uncertainty is partially identifying and tagging asymptomatic carriers and controlling the circulation of them, and eventually giving 70% of the popultation the herd immunity thru vaccination. (The immunity gathered via the current patients who survive is so miniscule a fraction...LESS THAN one percent of any sub-population, including Spain or Italy!) Until then, we face a good probability of resurgence if social distancing is not maintained.

Wilt wrote in post #19046140
I just saw on the TV news that some farmers are having to till their crops back into the ground, destroying perfectly good vegetables, because they cannot get their crops to the end user buying customer! What's the story behind this waste of good food, when our grocery stores are not running over with excess produce?!

Food banks have to turn away families. Yet crops go unharvested.

Can not comment on this specific case - but here in Europe most of the seasonal harvesting are done by migratory workers. Borders are closed, they can not get into the country and harvest and nobody else is willing to work for the wage farmers can offer. This might probably also be the case in the US?

drmaxx wrote in post #19046147
Can not comment on this specific case - but here in Europe most of the seasonal harvesting are done by migratory workers. Borders are closed, they can not get into the country and harvest and nobody else is willing to work for the wage farmers can offer. This might probably also be the case in the US?

Excellent point, same here in US