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Thread started 12 Mar 2020 (Thursday) 15:31
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Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

 
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Capn ­ Jack
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Apr 18, 2020 07:56 |  #2266

Here are a couple of articles recently published by Nature. They are contradictory to some degree- one says there seems to be many more infected as compared to official numbers, the other articles indicates the tests aren't really reliable. These articles are aggregates of other information.

Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits."
https://www.nature.com​/articles/d41586-020-01095-0 (external link)

This mentions some issues raised earlier in the thread regarding how good the antibody tests might be.
"It seems that many tests available now are not accurate enough at identifying people who have had the disease, a property called test sensitivity, and those who haven’t been infected, known as test specificity. A high-quality test should achieve 99% or more sensitivity and specificity, adds Collignon. That means that testing should turn up only about 1 false positive and 1 false negative for every 100 true positive and true negative results.

But some commercial antibody tests have recorded specificities as low as 40% early in the infection. In an analysis2 of 9 commercial tests available in Denmark, 3 lab-based tests had sensitivities ranging 67–93% and specificities of 93–100%. In the same study, five out of six point-of-care tests had sensitivities ranging 80–93%, and 80-100% specificity, but some kits were tested on fewer than 30 people. Testing was suspended for one kit. Overall, the sensitivity of all the tests improved over time, with the highest sensitivity recorded two weeks after symptoms first appeared. Some of these tests are also being used to test individuals in other countries, including Germany and Australia.

https://www.nature.com​/articles/d41586-020-01115-z (external link)




  
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digital ­ paradise
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Apr 18, 2020 08:08 |  #2267

North Dakota that is about an hr south from us ignored taking steps to prevent the spread is now starting to get into trouble.


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gjl711
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Apr 18, 2020 09:29 |  #2268

sapearl wrote in post #19048591 (external link)
I have relatives in California and from what they've told me I would agree. Our governor in Ohio working closely with the state health director has done a fantastic job also. We were early adopters of social distancing and related procedures and our lower numbers bear testimony to that.

What will really be interesting is what happens now in FLORIDA which IMO is very troubling. As of yesterday they have reopened their beaches. I'd never wish this on anybody but I believe they are being dangerously premature.

https://www.cnn.com …a-beach-reopen/index.html (external link)

It takes about 2-14 days for the virus to incubate. If there's a spike in Florida's numbers then this will have been a stupid move; I hope I'm wrong.

Another way to look at it is that eventually a large portion of the population is going to have to get this, develop the immunity, and move on. Even with all of the hand wringing and complaining we have seen from some of the governors on tv in the heavily infected states, our hospitals never overflowed and some of the temporary facilities are being taken down. We never reached capacity. So maybe it's time to loosen the restrictions, let the virus spread a little more and deal with the consequences. Someone had mentioned that Sweden is doing worse than the US but they also might be closer to reaching a point where the virus burns itself out and they are done with it. Just an opinion, don't necessarily subscribe to it, but keeping everything shut down is eventually going to do more damage than the virus itself.


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 18, 2020 10:19 |  #2269

Pippan wrote in post #19048514 (external link)
Really? Sweden has (as of today) 139 deaths per million, that's even higher than USA, and 676 new cases reported yesterday. How is this good?

.
The good side of what Sweden is doing is that personal freedoms and conveniences are largely still intact. . To some of us, that is more important than slowing the spread of the virus.

It all depends on one's values and priorities. . Some place a great value on safety, security, health, and saving lives, while others put a much larger value on freedom and convenience. . Some like to work together with others, while others have more of an "every man for himself" mindset. . And then there are all the people who fall somewhere in between the two extreme ends of the issue. . Neither is right, neither is wrong. . It just depends on what one prefers.

.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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Apr 18, 2020 10:25 |  #2270

gjl711 wrote in post #19048645 (external link)
Another way to look at it is that eventually a large portion of the population is going to have to get this, develop the immunity, and move on. Even with all of the hand wringing and complaining we have seen from some of the governors on tv in the heavily infected states, our hospitals never overflowed and some of the temporary facilities are being taken down. We never reached capacity. So maybe it's time to loosen the restrictions, let the virus spread a little more and deal with the consequences. Someone had mentioned that Sweden is doing worse than the US but they also might be closer to reaching a point where the virus burns itself out and they are done with it. Just an opinion, don't necessarily subscribe to it, but keeping everything shut down is eventually going to do more damage than the virus itself.

Well JJ I agree that we eventually have to get to the "immunity" state through exposure but I want to see that happen a little bit more slowly. And yes, SOME of our hospitals never overflowed and reached capacity, because we observed social distance and related rules. Ohio and California are proof of that.

Relax things a bit more? That's a slippery slope and a lot of thought needs to be put into such a decision. If we blow it, relax too soon and get a massive spike then we've lost our gains at fighting this. I agree we can't have everything shut down indefinitely - it has be evaluated before just throwing the switch.


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gjl711
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Apr 18, 2020 10:51 |  #2271

sapearl wrote in post #19048679 (external link)
Well JJ I agree that we eventually have to get to the "immunity" state through exposure but I want to see that happen a little bit more slowly. And yes, SOME of our hospitals never overflowed and reached capacity, because we observed social distance and related rules. Ohio and California are proof of that.

Relax things a bit more? That's a slippery slope and a lot of thought needs to be put into such a decision. If we blow it, relax too soon and get a massive spike then we've lost our gains at fighting this. I agree we can't have everything shut down indefinitely - it has be evaluated before just throwing the switch.

True, but 3 months ago we were just finding out how ill prepared we really were so a spike at that time would have been devastating. In the last 3 months, our leaders have done a pretty decent job gearing up for the worst so today we are much better prepared for a larger volume. I don't know but I know what we are currently doing is devastating small business and I'm guessing many will never return. Here in TX, our gov is opening things a bit more starting next week as well. If you look at our numbers, we are on the low end of everything per pop and have lots of capacity in our hospitals. Time to loosen things up a bit I think. Clearly you want to avoid massive spikes, but do you really think that's going to happen knowing what we know so far?


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digital ­ paradise
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Apr 18, 2020 11:49 |  #2272

sapearl wrote in post #19048679 (external link)
Well JJ I agree that we eventually have to get to the "immunity" state through exposure but I want to see that happen a little bit more slowly. And yes, SOME of our hospitals never overflowed and reached capacity, because we observed social distance and related rules. Ohio and California are proof of that.

Relax things a bit more? That's a slippery slope and a lot of thought needs to be put into such a decision. If we blow it, relax too soon and get a massive spike then we've lost our gains at fighting this. I agree we can't have everything shut down indefinitely - it has be evaluated before just throwing the switch.

It will have to be carefully planned which is not a fast process. It only takes one person to start a second wave of infections.


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soeren
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Apr 18, 2020 12:02 |  #2273

digital paradise wrote in post #19048720 (external link)
It will have to be carefully planned which is not a fast process. It only takes one person to start a second wave of infections.

No it takes the whole chain. If people in general are carefull one individual will create a riple but not a breakout.


If history has proven anything. it's that evolution always wins!!

  
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Apr 18, 2020 12:08 |  #2274

soeren wrote in post #19048728 (external link)
No it takes the whole chain. If people in general are carefull one individual will create a riple but not a breakout.

Well, maybe - maybe not. Remember the speed and infection rate of Corona compared to others. It's a crapshoot.


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Apr 18, 2020 12:35 |  #2275

sapearl wrote in post #19048732 (external link)
Well, maybe - maybe not. Remember the speed and infection rate of Corona compared to others. It's a crapshoot.

Yes we are down to 0.6 ;-)a


If history has proven anything. it's that evolution always wins!!

  
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Apr 18, 2020 12:35 |  #2276

sapearl wrote in post #19048732 (external link)
Well, maybe - maybe not. Remember the speed and infection rate of Corona compared to others. It's a crapshoot.

You can't count on all people being careful.


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Apr 18, 2020 12:35 |  #2277

Canada-U.S. border restrictions extended for another 30 days:


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Apr 18, 2020 12:43 |  #2278

digital paradise wrote in post #19048749 (external link)
Canada-U.S. border restrictions extended for another 30 days:

I can certainly see the logic in that especially with what his happening in New York.


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Apr 18, 2020 12:50 |  #2279

digital paradise wrote in post #19048749 (external link)
Canada-U.S. border restrictions extended for another 30 days:

Just in case I should have said this is for non essential travel. Just had another thought. If I ran the show I'd keep this permanent until every person crossing can have a reliable quick test. Truckers can cross which I support but they should start with them ASAP. They will be slowed down a bit around these parts. This is North Dakota which is just south of us. In Canada I 29 turns to 75 and it is flooded too. Yet again the floodway that started construction in 1962 and expanded several years ago will save our city.

https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=ppSjCR57Ul4 (external link)


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Apr 18, 2020 13:24 |  #2280

joeseph wrote in post #19048586 (external link)
you're welcome! I had the privilege of being in the UK last year & able to attend "Flying Legends" at Duxford - pure awesomeness! I'll try & find some more shots.
Can't imagine the kaos & mayhem that covid-19 has done to many folks travel plans these last few months, must be a nightmare, really feel for those that had stuff planned & paid for.
First-world problems compared to those with the virus though.

My Quebec medical contact, who is an old friend, was due to go on a music cruise on March 27th that she had been looking forward to for a year. It was cancelled, but as I commented a lot of cruise ships became a sort of social Petri dish for germs and she was likely saved from a high risk of exposure. She was called back and has been working long shifts since then.


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