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Thread started 12 Mar 2020 (Thursday) 15:31
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Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

 
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DreDaze
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Apr 21, 2020 22:09 |  #2386

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050875 (external link)
People wear glasses, I presume, so that they can see with greater resolution. I suppose that the reason glasses exist is because people can profit through the manufacture and sales of the glasses.
.

So that those who are wealthy enough to pay for medical care can have it available to them. . And also because many people are able to profit by having jobs and businesses and investments in the medical fields. . When there is a demand for a good or service, then there will typically be a supply of that good or service. . That's Economics 101.
.

That is a very complex question to answer. . I think it would require a lot of thought to come up with an answer, and honestly I don't feel like putting that kind of thought into it.

I suppose the answer to that question would depend on what view one sees the scenario from. . Someone looking at it through a purely scientific / biological lens may see it a certain way. . Someone else looking at it from a moral standpoint may see it differently. . And someone looking at it from an ethical position may come up with yet another answer.

.

i'm just saying if we are talking survival of the species...why are we keeping around these weak humans if we are all just animals anyways...also i can't believe you think that last question would require a lot of thought to answer...


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Post edited 10 months ago by Tom Reichner.
     
Apr 21, 2020 22:15 |  #2387

DreDaze wrote in post #19050877 (external link)
.
i'm just saying if we are talking survival of the species...why are we keeping around these weak humans if we are all just animals anyways
.

.
I honestly don't know ..... unless it is because other stronger people can profit financially by keeping them around. . Or because friends and family love them and are willing to pay a lot of money to keep them around so that they can enjoy them a little longer.

But if you're just going by the survival of our species - if that is the only criteria, then I don't see how it makes sense to keep biologically weaker people around ..... unless they are brilliant scientists who can teach us things to increase our power and dominion over other living things.


.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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Tronhard
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Post edited 10 months ago by Tronhard. (3 edits in all)
     
Apr 21, 2020 22:39 as a reply to  @ Tom Reichner's post |  #2388

My perception is that Tom's philosophy is a very commercial based one. I am sure he will correct me if I am wrong.:rolleyes:

If you want a service you pay for it, if you can't afford it then you live with the consequences, and society (and other individuals) have no obligation to provide those services. To do so would limit or hold back those who feel they should not be shackled by the less fortunate. To engage in government-run support programs involves a level of oversight and control that is an anathema to the American economic dream. Some may do so out of charity, but that seems to be as far as it goes.

It's a different kind of morality - I'll leave it at that...


"All the beauty of life is made up of light and shadow", Leo Tolstoy;
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DreDaze
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Apr 21, 2020 22:48 |  #2389

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050880 (external link)
.
I honestly don't know ..... unless it is because other stronger people can profit financially by keeping them around. . Or because friends and family love them and are willing to pay a lot of money to keep them around so that they can enjoy them a little longer.

But if you're just going by the survival of our species - if that is the only criteria, then I don't see how it makes sense to keep biologically weaker people around ..... unless they are brilliant scientists who can teach us things to increase our power and dominion over other living things.

.

since everything seems centered around money...that is one thing that would allow you to still go out and do as you please...you go somewhere you're not supposed to be, you'll probably just get a ticket...pay it, and still do as you please...i recently got a warning from the sheriff for parking in a turn off, and spending 6 hours on a secluded cove by myself watching peregrines...i knew there was a chance i'd get a ticket...it certainly prevented me from going more than i would have liked, but i figured i'd risk it for a day...not sure if i'll go back after getting lucky that first time...at the same time though, i haven't gone to any groceries stores, haven't been within six feet of people, have barely seen family members in person...i'm sure some would say just me going out there was bad, but i can't wrap my head around that


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 21, 2020 22:58 |  #2390

DreDaze wrote in post #19050889 (external link)
.
... i recently got a warning from the sheriff for parking in a turn off, and spending 6 hours on a secluded cove by myself watching peregrines ... ... i'm sure some would say just me going out there was bad, but i can't wrap my head around that
.

.
Why in the world did the sheriff's deputy warn you for parking in a turnout? . Aren't turnouts where you're supposed to park?


.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 21, 2020 22:59 as a reply to  @ Tronhard's post |  #2391

.

Yes, Trevor - I think you summed up my thoughts quite well. . Think you nailed it on every point you made. . Nice to know that someone "gets" me.


.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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Tronhard
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Post edited 10 months ago by Tronhard.
     
Apr 21, 2020 23:07 |  #2392

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050892 (external link)
.
Yes, Trevor - I think you summed up my thoughts quite well. . Think you nailed it on every point you made. . Nice to know that someone "gets" me.
.

I always try to find the other person's perspective. As you know from my own PM in response to yours, I have a different compass and I think that either we are shaped by our different communities or have been attracted to them. I suspect if we swapped places each of us would be challenged!;-)a


"All the beauty of life is made up of light and shadow", Leo Tolstoy;
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Apr 21, 2020 23:12 |  #2393

DreDaze wrote in post #19050854 (external link)
yes at the end of the day humans are animals, but that doesn't mean we act like them...animals kill a rival, and that rivals offspring and then mate with them...should we start doing that?

Do animals have wars that result in the deaths of tens of millions of their own species?


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 21, 2020 23:16 |  #2394

Tronhard wrote in post #19050897 (external link)
I always try to find the other person's perspective. As you know from my own PM in response to yours, I have a different compass and I think that either we are shaped by our different communities or have been attracted to them. I suspect if we swapped places each of us would be challenged!;-)a

.
Yes - exactly! . And there is not just the shaping, but also innate differences. . The nurture and the nature both, as they say. . I am very different than most people who live in my country, so I think it lies deeper than just being shaped by where we live. . I have never been like most people. . Never any interest in a family, in a home, or in a career. . Never, ever wanted those things. . Yet they are the very things that most people long for and work for their entire lives.

By the way, I do mean to respond at length to your PM. . But it is such an all-encompassing, deep message that I need to let it all soak in for a while before I know what to say or how to respond. . Just don't want you to think I am ignoring it, or carelessly putting it off.


.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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Tronhard
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Apr 21, 2020 23:20 |  #2395

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050901 (external link)
.
Yes - exactly! . And there is not just the shaping, but also innate differences. . The nurture and the nature both, as they say. . I am very different than most people who live in my country, so I think it lies deeper than just being shaped by where we live. . I have never been like most people. . Never any interest in a family, in a home, or in a career. . Never, ever wanted those things. . Yet they are the very things that most people long for and work for their entire lives.

By the way, I do mean to respond at length to your PM. . But it is such an all-encompassing, deep message that I need to let it all soak in for a while before I know what to say or how to respond. . Just don't want you to think I am ignoring it, or carelessly putting it off.

.

No worries. In the meantime I need you to kick some life into this thread!!!!  :p
https://photography-on-the.net …showthread.php?​p=19050697


"All the beauty of life is made up of light and shadow", Leo Tolstoy;
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gjl711
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Apr 21, 2020 23:23 |  #2396

Pippan wrote in post #19050900 (external link)
Do animals have wars that result in the deaths of tens of millions of their own species?

Ever seen fire ants attack another nest? Or pretty much any colony insect for that matter. How about chimps attack another family unit. It happens.


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DreDaze
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Apr 21, 2020 23:24 |  #2397

Pippan wrote in post #19050900 (external link)
Do animals have wars that result in the deaths of tens of millions of their own species?

of course not...that's why i'm saying to Tom that i don't think taking the humans are animals perspective is right for this.

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050891 (external link)
.
Why in the world did the sheriff's deputy warn you for parking in a turnout? . Aren't turnouts where you're supposed to park?

.

in my county we aren't allowed to travel to hike/get out in nature...basically if you want to get out of your house, you can walk/bike out the door and access anything that way...the main reasoning behind this is the fact that we are so close to SF and that the first weekend of the shutdown so many people from there traveled across the bridge and basically treated it like it was a holiday weekend...so in order to keep them away, they've made it so any time there are people that are driving to park they are liable to get ticketed for $100


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 21, 2020 23:52 |  #2398

DreDaze wrote in post #19050907 (external link)
in my county we aren't allowed to travel to hike/get out in nature...

.
Oh my goodness - that is horrible! . It doesn't make any sense, either. . You can travel to go to the grocery store, or the WalMart, or the take-out restaurant .... but you can't travel to go out for a hike by yourself in the middle of nowhere? . There doesn't seem to be a perfectly logical consistency in what is allowed and what is not allowed.

Here in Washington, we also have a so-called "Stay at Home" order. . But that is a misnomer. . If one looks into the specifics of the order, they will see that it doesn't really mean to stay at home ..... it means not to go where other people are (except for the businesses which are open because they are deemed "essential", such as the WalMart and so forth).

We are encouraged to get out in nature - especially so because of the virus. . In fact, a day or two after my governor issued the order, the government opened a system of hiking trails up a week ahead of their scheduled opening, to encourage people to get out into nature and enjoy that form of isolation.

When I wanted to travel far away to photograph Grouse, I called the federal officials in South Dakota and asked them if it was okay to travel there from WA, and if their public lands were open. . They said, "Yes, of course. We think the best thing for people is to get out into nature away from other people. PLEASE, come!"

.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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soeren
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Apr 22, 2020 00:04 |  #2399

Tronhard wrote in post #19050653 (external link)
Who has been the victim of a smear campaign and they have gone to great pains to demonstrate how they gave warnings based on the information they were given from Chinese authorities.

You might want to check what the WHO figures for Sweden are right now. They went through the roof.
According the the WHO report for 20th April:
https://www.who.int …-19.pdf?sfvrsn=fcf0670b​_4 (external link)

Sweden (with a population of 10.23million) has 14,384 cases about 500 of which are new cases and 1540 deaths: that's a mortality rate of about 10.7%, which is very high despite having an advanced health care system.

Their delay in recognizing the need for countermeasures also impacted their testing program, which is very limited (their status on community transmission is "Pending" - i.e. they have no idea) , thus it is likely that there are many unreported cases and levels of community transmission yet to surface or be reported - if much more testing is done it may well reveal the missing cases and return the mortality rates to the more normal 3-4% of infections. To reach a state of control they will need an extremely strict lock-down policy for some time, and have a massive increase in critical care capability and testing.

NZ's scientists did an early analysis of the scenarios, for example seeking herd immunity through no significant lockdown (alert level 1 - based on herd immunity) compared to a strict and early intervention and isolation (alert Level 4).

thumbnail
Hosted photo: posted by Tronhard in
./showthread.php?p=190​50653&i=i173496038
forum: The Lounge

Source: https://www.tepunahama​tatini.ac.nz/ (external link)

The graph, updated from their figures as of April 21, shows how we compared in fact to the projections. Essentially, by going hard and early NZ is surpassing the best projections for control.
The stats as of April 22
thumbnail
Hosted photo: posted by Tronhard in
./showthread.php?p=190​50653&i=i20129345
forum: The Lounge

On the subject of earlier generations establishing herd immunity as a solution to this pandemic. The levels of death from pandemics were amazingly high. To quote only a few of the major ones:

The Black Death of the 14th century may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million based on figures from the time. That's a mortality rate of almost 60%, and based on the primitive medical response at the time it could be considered resolved by herd immunity.

In history, plagues have wiped out whole populations or reduced them by as much as 80%. The example of the North American first nations in Canada and Alaska had a death rate of 80% from typhoid, without treatment.

What saved many populations was their own isolation, because the a pandemic exhausted its host population before it could reach them. Our modern, highly mobile world has not afforded us that protection. Thus, the Spanish Flu had a mortality of between 50 and 100 million. Again, this was before the age of mores sophisticated medical interventions, such as targeted antibiotics, so one can consider this herd immunity, but we were mobile as combatants and refugees traveled across the globe.

FYI:

There is a scholarly book on the history of pandemics, their characteristics and results:
https://books.google.c​o.nz …rical%20pandemi​cs&f=false (external link)

Herd immunity MAY be established, but the patterns are pretty clear - as we allow travel and interaction, the cost of that immunity increases dramatically. Again look at the numbers for countries that have not tackled this effectively.

What I struggle to understand is the resistance to isolation calls. If one's doctor told an individual to stay home because they were sick, I would expect that the average person, even in the US, would do so. When the medical, health and scientific community say the population should stay at home for a period to reduce the risks and not overload medical resources - both of which save lives - it seems to be viewed as an attack on human rights and becomes a political issue.

Sweden aplies the strategy of herd immunity and are not doing nothing just not what everybody else does. They accept a somewhat higher mortality and as Ive said before deathrate is not the absolute indicator of success.
I do not listen to the smear campains against WHO i just trust some local experts more


If history has proven anything. it's that evolution always wins!!

  
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DreDaze
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Apr 22, 2020 00:24 |  #2400

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050917 (external link)
.
Oh my goodness - that is horrible! . It doesn't make any sense, either. . You can travel to go to the grocery store, or the WalMart, or the take-out restaurant .... but you can't travel to go out for a hike by yourself in the middle of nowhere? . There doesn't seem to be a perfectly logical consistency in what is allowed and what is not allowed.

Here in Washington, we also have a so-called "Stay at Home" order. . But that is a misnomer. . If one looks into the specifics of the order, they will see that it doesn't really mean to stay at home ..... it means not to go where other people are (except for the businesses which are open because they are deemed "essential", such as the WalMart and so forth).

We are encouraged to get out in nature - especially so because of the virus. . In fact, a day or two after my governor issued the order, the government opened a system of hiking trails up a week ahead of their scheduled opening, to encourage people to get out into nature and enjoy that form of isolation.

When I wanted to travel far away to photograph Grouse, I called the federal officials in South Dakota and asked them if it was okay to travel there from WA, and if their public lands were open. . They said, "Yes, of course. We think the best thing for people is to get out into nature away from other people. PLEASE, come!"

.

but all of your state parks, and national parks are closed as well...so what are people really able to access?...ok, south dakota said it was ok, but what if you tried to call up yellowstone, or glacier...both those are closed


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