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gjl711
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Apr 22, 2020 12:03 |  #2416

sapearl wrote in post #19051162 (external link)
Speaking only for the U.S., immediately lifting the lock down so that every business can re-open right away will not solve the financial problems for small companies or even large ones that depend upon walk-in trade. People will only return to restaurants, bars, coffee shops, gyms etc. when they feel it is reasonably safe to do so.

At this moment, more Americans feel it would be premature to lift the lock-down than those who want to re-open. I don't know what the demonstrations hope to accomplish in these few state capital locations. Right now people are either too cautious or too scared to go running out and resuming their prior lives of old habits. Obviously the best decision will be a measured and layered response plan, over time, that also takes into consideration the area and other factors. More testing will be required for this.

I am sympathetic to those people out of work and know that many businesses may fail. I help manage a shuttered non-profit whose employees may have to go on unemployment if this goes on too long. We don't want to see that happen. But if people don't feel safe enough to the streets and come through our doors, all the legislation in the world won't force the return of our clients and visitors.

I can see the protestors point. There are lots of people that are in low risk groups with a household of others that are low risk, and are willing to take a chance. They are being forced into hardship against their will just so those in high risk categories can feel safer. I think enough is known now that anyone 60 or less and in reasonably good health might get sick and feel bad, or might not even know they got sick, but their chances of something catastrophic happening is about the same as the regular flu.


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Apr 22, 2020 12:23 |  #2417

gjl711 wrote in post #19051175 (external link)
I can see the protestors point. There are lots of people that are in low risk groups with a household of others that are low risk, and are willing to take a chance. They are being forced into hardship against their will just so those in high risk categories can feel safer. I think enough is known now that anyone 60 or less and in reasonably good health might get sick and feel bad, or might not even know they got sick, but their chances of something catastrophic happening is about the same as the regular flu.

Problem is, it isn't up to them whether or not they would be taking the risk, since taking that risk could very well mean that they will take away resources for those people who are continuing to abide by lockdown rules and/or are overtly vulnerable to the pandemic.

Whatever risks you take risks undermining the whole response to this, not only yourself.


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gjl711
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Apr 22, 2020 12:37 |  #2418

Apricane wrote in post #19051186 (external link)
Problem is, it isn't up to them whether or not they would be taking the risk, since taking that risk could very well mean that they will take away resources for those people who are continuing to abide by lockdown rules and/or are overtly vulnerable to the pandemic.

Whatever risks you take risks undermining the whole response to this, not only yourself.

But isn't that true for just about every activity? If those at high risk stay home, how are they going to come into contact? I suppose it would be a bigger deal if we were close to running out of resources, but in my area, the hospitals are complaining because there is no one in them as elective procedures have been put on hold. I can see locking down an area that is stretched to their limit, but everyone? Doesn't make sense.


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Tom ­ Reichner
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Apr 22, 2020 12:47 |  #2419

sapearl wrote in post #19051162 (external link)
People will only return to restaurants, bars, coffee shops, gyms etc. when they feel it is reasonably safe to do so.

.
Stu,

People already feel that it is safe to return to the restaurants. . In fact, many, many people felt that it was safe to go to restaurants all along, so long as one is not in an abnormally high risk group.

Maybe in your part of the country, people are of a cautious mindset, overall. . In the area where I live, and the many places I have been over the past month, I see something different.

I had to go to Seattle for work last Friday. . The interstates had a lot of traffic on them - about normal for a Friday at lunchtime. . The smaller routes that traverse suburban neighborhoods had lots of traffic on them, as well. . Parking lots were near full at most of the shopping centers and strip malls. . There were long, long, long lines at all of the restaurants and coffee shops offering drive-thru and takeout service.

I have traveled to the same destination via the same route regularly for years, and I honestly couldn't notice any difference in the overall amount of traffic and commerce going on. . It's just that at many businesses they had to use drive thru or takeout instead of going in. . And keep in mind, this is in Seattle, in King County, Washington, where the first really big COVID scare occurred just several weeks ago. . The "COVID Gateway" to North America, if you will. . So even in very high risk areas, people are itching to get out at every chance they have to do so.

Ditto for the greater Spokane area. . And the greater Wenatchee area.

The vast majority of people I meet in real life are so tired of these restrictions, and were mostly against them all along, despite the risks. . It is only when I get online that I encounter people who are of a different mindset, and have these extreme feelings of caution.

I think that restaurants will get along just fine as soon as the restrictions are lifted. . The people I know and those I observe are itching to get back into them so they can sit down at a table and order a meal the way they are accustomed to doing. . I am sure that there are others like you, who will remain cooped up for a while because they want to feel safer, but have you considered that there may be far more people than you realize, who do not share your mindset?


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Apricane
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Apr 22, 2020 12:56 |  #2420

gjl711 wrote in post #19051199 (external link)
But isn't that true for just about every activity? If those at high risk stay home, how are they going to come into contact? I suppose it would be a bigger deal if we were close to running out of resources, but in my area, the hospitals are complaining because there is no one in them as elective procedures have been put on hold. I can see locking down an area that is stretched to their limit, but everyone? Doesn't make sense.

But it's impossible to really delimit an 'area', as you say, because that would have much more ramifications for having to prevent traffic, etc., on the one hand.

Also, how do you know just how vulnerable you are to COVID-19 anyway? The fact of the matter is, even if there are general guidelines for who is most vulnerable and who might not be, you just cannot know how the disease will affect you or anyone else.

Finally, society is for everyone, not just the select few. It actually makes sense to ensure that everyone behaves in about the same way to be able to enjoy as much of it as possible now and in the future: #stayhome to save lives. (It really is no different than always having to stop at a stop sign regardless of what neighborhood you're in. Except for the fact that, here, with COVID-19, messing up could result in many more fatalities.)


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Apr 22, 2020 13:06 |  #2421

gjl711 wrote in post #19051175 (external link)
I can see the protestors point. There are lots of people that are in low risk groups with a household of others that are low risk, and are willing to take a chance. They are being forced into hardship against their will just so those in high risk categories can feel safer.

I can see their point, too. The difficulty is that low risk and high risk aren't so neatly defined or knowable. People with just one risk factor, let's say it's obesity or "a little" asthma, can rationalize it away. "So what? A few extra pounds can't count for much." Young adults and children are dying; even age doesn't correlate that well with danger.


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Apr 22, 2020 14:08 |  #2422

gjl711 wrote in post #19051175 (external link)
I can see the protestors point. There are lots of people that are in low risk groups with a household of others that are low risk, and are willing to take a chance. They are being forced into hardship against their will just so those in high risk categories can feel safer. I think enough is known now that anyone 60 or less and in reasonably good health might get sick and feel bad, or might not even know they got sick, but their chances of something catastrophic happening is about the same as the regular flu.

I understand what you are saying JJ and I'm going to guess that this is a situation that applies to rural areas and small towns. Relaxing the lock-down could probably work there. I don't live in one so I can only speculate.

On the other hand I live in a metropolitan area of 2 million people although we are fortunate to have our own standalone home. But my metro area is close to several others with many more millions. I am still not convinced that the stats for contagion and lethality match that of the regular flu. Remember, I have been vaccinated against the former for many decades and I also enjoy the herd immunity I have built over time. Many in this area feel as I do. We are not in a hurry to return to communal areas. Even grocery stores make us nervous.


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Apr 22, 2020 14:08 |  #2423

Tronhard wrote in post #19050681 (external link)
With all due respect Tom, I totally disagree with the idea that people, by purely protecting themselves, will result in everybody being protected. As an individual it would be really, really hard to guarantee protection unless one absolutely cut oneself off from the rest of humanity and its resources, because you don't know what someone has touched, or where they have been before something you bought or bartered for is in your possession.

Really it's the other way round: by everyone being protected you will be. I am also distressed by the ideology that it acceptable for pandemics to "weed out the weak" from the population - that has a smell of Social Darwinism that led to some of the worst ideology of the pre-WWII regime - specifically survival of the fittest, not as a species but as individuals within society.

The disease statistics in the history of pandemics totally contradict that principle - if people who died in droves were (as you suggest) protecting themselves, they did a lousy job of doing so and protecting everybody, as you claim. Again, look at the numbers, they show that the countries with the greatest controls are safer for their populations.

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The curves speak for themselves and it should be noted the Y scale is not lineal, it's logarithmic.

I think a more accurate chart would reflect # infected & # dead per 1,000,000 people. This chart is not taking into account that the USA is 328,000,000 million whereas all of those other countries represented on the graphic are substantially less populations.


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gjl711
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Apr 22, 2020 14:13 |  #2424

Apricane wrote in post #19051208 (external link)
....
Also, how do you know just how vulnerable you are to COVID-19 anyway? The fact of the matter is, even if there are general guidelines for who is most vulnerable and who might not be, you just cannot know how the disease will affect you or anyone else. No one ever knows for sure how any virus is going to affect them. Something like 30k people die each year from some flu and you might be one that is sustainable to a certain strain. What we do know though is that <60 without other factors, the risk is low. LINK (external link).

Finally, society is for everyone, not just the select few. It actually makes sense to ensure that everyone behaves in about the same way to be able to enjoy as much of it as possible now and in the future: #stayhome to save lives. (It really is no different than always having to stop at a stop sign regardless of what neighborhood you're in. Except for the fact that, here, with COVID-19, messing up could result in many more fatalities.)

Yes, but society is not the same everywhere. Why am I sheltering at home because New York is having issues. They are almost 1500 miles away and their conditions are very different than where I live. Are you saying that because people in New York are suffering and being more or less imprisoned at home, that everyone in the nation has to feel the same pain and also be imprisoned even if they don't have the same problems?


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Apr 22, 2020 14:16 as a reply to  @ Naturalist's post |  #2425

China has 1,4 billion people, that's over 4 times as many as the USA.


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Apr 22, 2020 14:39 |  #2426

gjl711 wrote in post #19051235 (external link)
Yes, but society is not the same everywhere. Why am I sheltering at home because New York is having issues. They are almost 1500 miles away and their conditions are very different than where I live. Are you saying that because people in New York are suffering and being more or less imprisoned at home, that everyone in the nation has to feel the same pain and also be imprisoned even if they don't have the same problems?

I think that this is a question that you would have to direct to the governor of your state, frankly. Otherwise, I would have to say, rather tartly, that the governor of your state thinks that there exists reasons for a lockdown in Texas, and that is why you have been instructed to shelter-in-place... My guess would be it is because, as has been said by just about everyone ad nauseam, that if you don't have strict measures in place you'll get to find out firsthand what it feels like to be in New York's situation, and no one anywhere wants any place to get that bad if it's not too late to avoid it.

And while society is not the same everywhere, I'm pretty sure we'd find a lot of overlap in the laws and regulations and customary practices of people in most North American jurisdictions (i.e. Canadian provinces vs. US states) for most everyday practices (i.e. road code/street signs/laws on distracted driving), usual opening hours of businesses, greeting practices, hygiene practices, how we go about doing shopping, layout and actual look and feel of malls and grocery stores, restaurant experience across similar types of restaurants, outdoor culture, etc.) if anyone was to compare.

About differences, there are several and some are definitely significant, but I'm sure we'd find that those are those that the virus cares the least about in terms of who it infects, and kills, or not.

There is also the value of solidarity, but I'd rather not even go there. But I'll just direct you to the place in my post where I said, as I believe myself, that no one wants to see a place that is doing reasonably well go bad just because. We all do well/better the more we can save from this, including by prevention.


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Apr 22, 2020 14:52 |  #2427

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19051237 (external link)
China has 1,4 billion people, that's over 4 times as many as the USA.

Yes, they do, I missed that one. Their numbers are entirely suspect, however.


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Apr 22, 2020 14:54 |  #2428

Naturalist wrote in post #19051256 (external link)
Yes, they do, I missed that one. Their numbers are entirely suspect, however.

Another example would be Canada, right next door, which has in between 1/9th and 1/10th of the population, with 1/20th of the number of infections. And the numbers there can very much be trusted.

Generally speaking, if you were to modify numbers (and rankings) for population you'd still end up with the US being one of the worst hit countries at the moment.


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Apr 22, 2020 15:37 |  #2429

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19051205 (external link)
.…………...

I think that restaurants will get along just fine as soon as the restrictions are lifted. . The people I know and those I observe are itching to get back into them so they can sit down at a table and order a meal the way they are accustomed to doing. . I am sure that there are others like you, who will remain cooped up for a while because they want to feel safer, but have you considered that there may be far more people than you realize, who do not share your mindset?

.

No Tom, I do not believe that here in Ohio there are more people who don't share my mindset.

I base this on talking to a lot of friends regularly in and out of the city, reading news articles, and listening to our governor's daily briefings. Views are obviously different in your area. I honestly hope it doesn't cost the residents dearly if the wrong decision is made. However I'm confident your governor will make the right decision for what its residents want.

Everybody, myself included, is itching to get back to some sense of normalcy.

Yes, my wife and I are cooped up a little bit but I honestly cannot say we have suffered, unlike many who are less fortunate. We enjoy each others company immensely after 40 years. I know you feel that would be a horrible sense of boredom for yourself but we go on walks, hike the parks, play games, enjoy movies and read. Plus we stay connected with our children and family. This gives us a great deal of pleasure. We are also patient and get very protective if we see anything that threatens our family. People with children understand this.

Since we are not in prison we can wait a little longer until things open up. Even though I didn't vote for our governor I back his pandemic policy and will gladly follow his recommendations. Approximately 2/3 of the people in Ohio feel the same way, today.


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Apr 22, 2020 16:06 |  #2430

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19051237 (external link)
China has 1,4 billion people, that's over 4 times as many as the USA.

China's data can't be trusted. They have other agendas.


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