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Thread started 12 Mar 2020 (Thursday) 15:31
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Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

 
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Capn ­ Jack
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Apr 22, 2020 17:14 |  #2431

gjl711 wrote in post #19051292 (external link)
China's data can't be trusted. They have other agendas.

Which data? The data from their scientists have been fine in the journals.




  
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Apr 22, 2020 17:19 |  #2432

The virus replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks. Your cat might get it and share it with another cat.
https://cen.acs.org …oronavirus/98/w​eb/2020/04 (external link)




  
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Apr 22, 2020 17:31 |  #2433

Capn Jack wrote in post #19051321 (external link)
Which data? The data from their scientists have been fine in the journals.

And how have you been able to confirm this? Can you share the way in which you independently verified this?


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Apr 22, 2020 17:39 |  #2434

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19050917 (external link)
.
Oh my goodness - that is horrible! . It doesn't make any sense, either. . You can travel to go to the grocery store, or the WalMart, or the take-out restaurant .... but you can't travel to go out for a hike by yourself in the middle of nowhere? . There doesn't seem to be a perfectly logical consistency in what is allowed and what is not allowed.

Here in Washington, we also have a so-called "Stay at Home" order. . But that is a misnomer. . If one looks into the specifics of the order, they will see that it doesn't really mean to stay at home ..... it means not to go where other people are (except for the businesses which are open because they are deemed "essential", such as the WalMart and so forth).

We are encouraged to get out in nature - especially so because of the virus. . In fact, a day or two after my governor issued the order, the government opened a system of hiking trails up a week ahead of their scheduled opening, to encourage people to get out into nature and enjoy that form of isolation.

When I wanted to travel far away to photograph Grouse, I called the federal officials in South Dakota and asked them if it was okay to travel there from WA, and if their public lands were open. . They said, "Yes, of course. We think the best thing for people is to get out into nature away from other people. PLEASE, come!"

.


The problem around SF Bay area (population 7.8 Million), Tom, lies in the fact that


  1. so very many people drove far from home to where they consider open space to be, that they all were no longer social distancting from one another, out on open beaches, and
    they were not even trying to maintain spacing on beaches or paths thru parks!
  2. That, in combination that they could have easily been CARRYING DISEASE to areas with otherwise few cases of COVID-19, in their frenzy to 'get outdoors'.
  3. Similarly, the county bike trails that were provided in open space areas were TOO NARROW to permit proper social distancing when used as a two-direction path...bikes passing with heavy breathing bikers 3' apart laterally, and absolutely no masks in use at the time.
  4. efforts to control open space use by closing the parking lots led to considerable congestion by people parking on the roadside and endangering traffic on the highway past the beaches


Similar chaos in narrow aisles in grocery stores forced the stores to put one-way arrows on aisle in an effort to control the flow of foot traffic...that failed, too, so they had to have an employee counting heads leaving and entering the store, to keep headcount inside below a level that permitted social distancing. You can see, with the spacing of folks waiting in a queue to get inside that so very many folks just do not seem to 'get it' as to what 6' llooks like!

Just last weekend, Sheriff deputies had to tell over 200 groups "GO HOME" because they lived more than 5 miles from the beach they were on. They will soon start to issue citations, not just give warnings.

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Apr 22, 2020 18:00 |  #2435

gjl711 wrote in post #19051175 (external link)
I can see the protestors point. There are lots of people that are in low risk groups with a household of others that are low risk, and are willing to take a chance. They are being forced into hardship against their will just so those in high risk categories can feel safer. I think enough is known now that anyone 60 or less and in reasonably good health might get sick and feel bad, or might not even know they got sick, but their chances of something catastrophic happening is about the same as the regular flu.

And that illustrates the 'ME' kind of thinking which is oblivious to the fact they can get infected and carry it back to their parents and grandparents and others in the vulnerable group who stand a higher chance of DYING from the exposure to symptomless young carriers who are naively goinging about their life without regard to anyone else!

"What if someone like you exposed Paul McCartney to COVID-19, and he dies?"


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Apr 22, 2020 18:06 |  #2436

Apricane wrote in post #19051208 (external link)
Also, how do you know just how vulnerable you are to COVID-19 anyway? The fact of the matter is, even if there are general guidelines for who is most vulnerable and who might not be, you just cannot know how the disease will affect you or anyone else.

^
Recently here, a child who was FIVE years old died from COVID-19.
Can you imagine the anquish if parents had said, ""Open things up for us!" ?!


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Apr 22, 2020 18:21 |  #2437

gjl711 wrote in post #19051292 (external link)
China's data can't be trusted. They have other agendas.

NOBODY'S data can be trusted.


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Wilt
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Apr 22, 2020 18:26 |  #2438

I fully sympathize with those living in rural settings who think, "This lockdown I can understand for NYC or LA, but it makes no sense here in the desert of New Mexico or Arizona."
The dynamics of the living situations in daily life are so incredibly different from one another. So why not loosen things?!

But let me offer this contrasting hypothetical but possible scenario:

In the deserts of AZ or NM they open things up, they do without the need for masks, and no longer bother with social distancing.
Meanwhile, Wilt is feeling really frustrated, "I have been cooped up under restriction for 6 weeks now, I need to get out of here!"
So Wilt jumps into his car, and drives to AZ and then to NM. What Wilt doesn't know is that he picked up SARS-COV-2 from a NV gas pump handle because the driver immediately ahead of him was infected but not yet showing symptoms only one day after being infected.
Wilt gets his gas, and continues driving onward, taking a total of 2 days to get to UT, another day to AZ where he enjoys the freedom of the open society for a week there because the AZ Governor no longer thought that masks or social distancinig were needed any longer. Then Wilt drives onward to New Mexico, and he again enjoys the freedom of the open society for a week there because the NM Governor also no longer thought that masks or social distancinig were needed any longer. In the process of his two weeks in AZ and NM, Wilt infects a whole lot of folks because no one tries to stand 6' away, no one disinfects bathroom faucet handles in restrooms that Wilt used. Wilt took off his mask and gloves once he left CA, as no one in AZ or NM wore them, and he didn't want to stand out awkwardly.
So Wilt infects two dozen (fewer than one per day while in AZ and NM), who then infect another 60 people, who ithen nfect another 150 people, and onward...because Wil was asymptomatic during his wandering

And therein lies the danger inherent to opening up things too soon.


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Apr 22, 2020 18:28 |  #2439

Apricane wrote in post #19051325 (external link)
And how have you been able to confirm this? Can you share the way in which you independently verified this?

Oh wow. Look back through this thread. I've posted enough stuff. I'll help you out a little. I know you've seen my responses. Do you really think their government messes with peer-reviewed journals?

Lets's see....they reported chloroquine and remdesivir had in vitro activity long before anyone else did ( 4 Feb). Chloroquine and related compounds aren't doing well in the clinical trials now, but remdesivir might be faring better.
https://www.nature.com …I67SkcgREM4Dyxx​AcPauRuf5w (external link)
They also found out early on that chloroquine/ hydroxychloroquine didn't work so well:
https://www.fiercephar​ma.com …-drug-disappoint-clinical (external link)
https://www.fiercephar​ma.com …just-trial-design-s-fault (external link)




  
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Apr 22, 2020 18:33 |  #2440

Capn Jack wrote in post #19051348 (external link)
Oh wow. Look back through this thread. I've posted enough stuff. I'll help you out a little. I know you've seen my responses. Do you really think their government messes with peer-reviewed journals?

Lets's see....they reported chloroquine and remdesivir had in vitro activity long before anyone else did ( 4 Feb). Chloroquine and related compounds aren't doing well in the clinical trials now, but remdesivir might be faring better.
https://www.nature.com …I67SkcgREM4Dyxx​AcPauRuf5w (external link)
They also found out early on that chloroquine/ hydroxychloroquine didn't work so well:
https://www.fiercephar​ma.com …-drug-disappoint-clinical (external link)
https://www.fiercephar​ma.com …just-trial-design-s-fault (external link)

I'm sorry but do you know what the process for peer-reviewed publications is, what is actually verified? And yes, I don't trust anything coming from China at this point, including peer-reviewed papers.


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Apr 22, 2020 18:36 |  #2441

Archibald wrote in post #19051342 (external link)
NOBODY'S data can be trusted.

...because in spite of good intentions, we have incomplete data all over the place. Just today, a county in CA finds that it had THREE deaths that, post mortem were proven to be resultant from COVID-19, and these took place in February before there was much risk being acknowledged...and BEFORE the first officially recognized death, in WA state.


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Capn ­ Jack
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Apr 22, 2020 18:54 |  #2442

Apricane wrote in post #19051353 (external link)
I'm sorry but do you know what the process for peer-reviewed publications is, what is actually verified? And yes, I don't trust anything coming from China at this point, including peer-reviewed papers.

Yes, I do. I have written several of them. I had two published last year. I'm writing one now, and I have data for another one that I'll write up soon. If people lie in the sciences, it is found out very quickly. Their research on SARS-CoVD-19 has been duplicated in many places, including Europe.

I'm sorry you have such a prejudice about the Chinese.




  
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Apr 22, 2020 19:23 |  #2443

gjl711 wrote in post #19051292 (external link)
China's data can't be trusted. They have other agendas.

China has drawbacks and benefits going for it.

Drawbacks include the suppression of critical information by authorities at different levels. Indications are that information from the medical community in Wuhan was held back by local authorities in order to save face. There may have been higher levels of information compartmentalization and suppression and that has delayed both the response and the accurate numbers reporting.

One major benefit they have is that they are a one party state and once they decided to move they did so with alacrity and without opposition from various political and economic interests or lobbyists. They build two equipped hospitals within 8 days - that is phenomenal... although the fact that they have were built and staffed by the military tells you how prepared they are for biological warfare - but that's another story.

A lot of the effectiveness of any government's response depends on a few things:
The degree to which they depend on academic, scientific and medical specialist for treatment and isolation protocols and medical countermeasures. They also need to engage with other experts in finance, business and sociology to consider the wider sociology-economic aspects of government measures.

The clarity and simplicity of the measures expressed to the population and engagement with media (of all kinds) to get the message across and to take feedback on how the engagement is working.

The culture of the population to accept the authority of the government to make decisions on their behalf, trust in that government and acceptance of restrictions to their everyday activities to get through the pandemic. Like everything else there is a WIIFM (What's In It For Me) aspect and that means selling and re-selling the concepts of what is happening.

Without doubt there is a wide disparity of those elements in the world's range of actions to deal with this pandemic. The challenge is going to be that when some countries come out of this earlier than others (and we haven't even really begun to see the impact on parts of Africa and Asia yet) trade and interactions between countries will be limited, based on the trust of one government for another and the results that they are getting in creating an environment with acceptable levels of risk.

As COVID-19 adapts and morphs we may well see repetitive cycles of infection, and frankly I rather suspect that, but either way one looks at it, this is a LONG way from being over...


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Apr 22, 2020 19:23 |  #2444

Capn Jack wrote in post #19051361 (external link)
Yes, I do. I have written several of them. I had two published last year. I'm writing one now, and I have data for another one that I'll write up soon. If people lie in the sciences, it is found out very quickly. Their research on SARS-CoVD-19 has been duplicated in many places, including Europe.

I'm sorry you have such a prejudice about the Chinese.

Well, you would know then that peer-reviewed papers are peer-reviewed and published to verify whether or not your argument is well constructed (i.e. structure) and that what you say in it is reproducible (i.e. true in itself, that you have reasonable sources in them for it). As for death counts which would always be the matter of government statistics just about anywhere (if you want to have an accurate picture), there is no way that an editorial board of any publication, even of Nature, can actually corroborate independently whether the sources are true i.e. accurate or not, only that the sources actually tell what the authors say it does (if they even do that, which is not always). Ultimately, in the social sciences (to which statistics and public administration belong, at least as opposed to applied science) as well as in any kind of applied science, a peer-reviewed publication only means that what the authors say is worthy of consideration because it's supported (unlike your comment about me and my attitudes towards the "Chinese") by arguments, sources and data, not that it's actually true or accurate in any objective capacity (the argument itself or even the data).

Any kind of independent corroboration would necessitate an investigation of some kind, which may or may not be possible depending on the status of what evidence would be available.

In this case, the first publication you quoted is actually dated from early in February 2020, way before there was any relaxation in the measures, much less any end to the epidemic there (and therefore way before anyone had a definite idea of a 'final' death count). And it was also published before the Chinese Government actually stepped in and reviewed the figures upwards by 50% (at the end of March if I remember correctly).

I don't have a prejudice about the "Chinese" (I even had a Chinese girlfriend before), but that doesn't mean that I find the Chinese Government trustworthy - clearly the current crisis itself and how the Chinese Government behaved itself in terms of its international obligations is very telling. I'm certainly not alone in thinking that it is worth investigating this behavior. Even the Canadian MSM have been asking several questions of the PM in terms of what we can expect in terms of follow-up in this regard (I'll have to ask you to look up the PM briefings yourself if you want, it would have been in the last few days - in this very thread, not that long ago, I also posted a video where David Mulroney, Canada's former ambassador to China - around 2006-2012 - also raised concerns with China's behavior). And I'll have you know that blindly believing them would also be prejudice.

And, as far as I'm aware, it's either COVID-19 for the disease or SARS-CoV-2 for the virus (there is no such thing as SARS-CoVD-19): https://www.who.int …-the-virus-that-causes-it (external link).


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Apr 22, 2020 19:27 |  #2445

Wilt wrote in post #19051356 (external link)
...because in spite of good intentions, we have incomplete data all over the place. Just today, a county in CA finds that it had THREE deaths that, post mortem were proven to be resultant from COVID-19, and these took place in February before there was much risk being acknowledged.

Yes, but depending on circumstances, the data might be either incomplete (i.e. mostly due to human error) or just completely misleading (i.e. due to intentional policy), with some in between due to insufficient resources to get a "full" picture. Those are very different scenarios. I trust that most countries are in one of the first two categories, but not everyone of them necessarily is.

In Quebec, actually, one of the reasons that the numbers are high is that, if a patient looks like they have COVID-19 (i.e. all/most of the related symptoms) the govt has made a policy decision to count such a case as COVID-19 even if they cannot verify through a test. So the approach is geared towards caution and prudence, both in terms of the medical and political responses.


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