CIPA: Less than 7 million cameras have shipped from Jan-Oct 2020

https://www.dpreview.c​om …rom-its-covid-19-downturn

And I personally expect November-December 2020 to not ship more than 2 million digital still cameras (DSC).

A grand total of less than 9 million DSC shipped globally for 2020.

This would be the worst year since the all time high of 121 million back in 2010

Will it settle back again at about 1999's 5.06 million?

In 2019 the global shipment of DSC was 15.2 million vs 1.52 billion of smartphones.

That's a ratio of 1 DSC to 100 smartphones.

Camera makers are now focusing on camera features iPhones and Androids will have difficulty replicating due to their limited size. Though these "advantages" may not last long due to computational photography. The features are

• Larger image sensors that allow for higher ISO and dynamic range
  
• Super zooms that allow 35mm equivalent optical zooms of 20mm to 3,000mm
  
• Better water resistance or ruggedness
  
• Built-in photo paper printing
  

• Larger image sensor: iPhone is now 47% larger than before & Android made improvements as well
  
• Super zooms: Have been addressed by having more than 1 rear cameras with ultrawide, wide & telephoto zoom ranges
  
• Better water resistance: iPhones 12 now can do IP68 under IEC standard 60529 (maximum depth of 6 meters up to 30 minutes) & Android can do something similar as well
  
• Built-in photo paper printing... smartphone makers are smart enough not to sell to hipsters.
  

Not really surprising...the casual snapshooter is so driven by CONVENIENCE. The smartphone is 'always' around, it is merely a convenience it shoots pictures or videos, in addition to phone calls, SMS messages, and connections to email or social media.

In comparison, the higher level photography capable by a mirrorless or dSLR, is something which appeals to the professional level photographer and photography enthusiast, where virtually no shutter lag can be tolerated, and/or sophisticated optics with abberations are corrected out via sophisticate optical designs and high performance glass....can the smartphone provide this to a demanding user?

Years ago, I speculated that the drop in the 'pro type' camera just might fall to the levels of the late 1990s.
The snapshooters had their flirtation with automated inexpensive SLRs (kicked off by the Canon AE-1 and marketing campaign run by Canon) leading to the low levels of the 1990s; then the snapshooters gravitated to the dSLR and followed the evolution which 'obsoleted' cameras every two or three years, causing a constant churning as the technology advanced. But the convenience of the smartphone made the P&S and the dSLR shrink in unit volumes.
Mirrorless has plateau'd since 2012 thru 2019, the mean price per unit increased but the unit count did not grow...while the dSLR simply continued its precipitous decline when no longer bolstered by technology-churning purchases.

The suddent stoppage of private and public events, the cessation of photo studio businesses, the social isolation from friends and relatives...all would stifle the purchase of photographic equipment. No school plays, no school sports both stifle the need for photographic equipment. No surprise there was a massive disruption to purchases.

I agree with Wilt, because of the virus the sales are down, people don't go on holidays as much as it was, no festivities, less income etc. And here in Oz I think the low Aussie dollar plays a part too, compared to the US, some camera's are too expensive.

The bubble created by the move from film to digital burst some time back,. with precipitous decline ever since. But now this past year has devastated so much.

Now the question is will it stabilize or exceed 9 million units shipped for all 12 months of 2021 or 2022?

Or it will it decline further to say 7.2 million? It's been a nose dive since 2010

I fear that the continuing suppession of normal activities due to caution about COVID will persist past summer 2021, unless something can be done about the rather slow rate of vaccination...that will continue to suppress the purchase of cameras. The US is scarcely on the downside of case counts; just yesterday there were 299000 new COVID cases.

Under 3% vaccinated by EOY 2020 in spite of revised hopes for 20 Million, after coming down from idealistic promises of 100 Million. That all assumes the great reluctance to get vaccinations can be overcome in most...right now even medical professionals in hospitals are displaying reluctance to be among the first groups to be vaccinated, slowing things down beyond the supply lines' limitations and leaving hospitals with surplus vaccine that is not used up for the first group prioritized.

2020 CIPA shipping data

Total Cameras - 8,886,292
Point & Shoot - 3,578,643
Total SLR & Mirrorless - 5,307,649
SLR - 2,374,569
Mirrorless - 2,933,080

1st year Cameras sells from 8 to 7 digits due to COVID-19
3rd year ILC outsells P&S
1st year MILC outsells SLR

And comparative data for units (Millions) shipped in 2019 and 2020

dSLR: 4.51M (2019), 2.37M (2020)
Mirrorless: 3.96M (2019), 2.93M (2020)

Mirrorless still has NOT GROWN to any significant level from its peak in 2012...dSLRs have simply plummeted!
Mirrorless has risen to so-called prominence over dSLR because its cousin is faring so poorly.

dSLR + Mirrorless volume in 2020 is virtually same as all-camera volume in 1999! (1999 all-camera volume --the first year differentiating digital compact camera -- was scarcely over 1997 analog camera volume)

Wilt wrote in post #19190570
And comparative data for units (Millions) shipped in 2019 and 2020

dSLR: 4.51M (2019), 2.37M (2020)
Mirrorless: 3.96M (2019), 2.93M (2020)

Mirrorless still has NOT GROWN to any significant level from its peak in 2012...dSLRs have simply plummeted!
Mirrorless has risen to so-called prominence over dSLR because its cousin is faring so poorly.

dSLR + Mirrorless volume in 2020 is virtually same as all-camera volume in 1999! (1999 all-camera volume --the first year differentiating digital compact camera -- was scarcely over 1997 analog camera volume)

Canon expects the whole digital still camera industry to settle under 10 million shipped per year.

dolina wrote in post #19190897
Canon expects the whole digital still camera industry to settle under 10 million shipped per year.

So this year, with about 8.9 Million all-camera units, is expected to somewhat recover to 10 Million after we all come out of hiding from COVID, yet significantly down from about 15 Million in 2019?! Maybe the 2020 figure of 8.9 Million is simply another data point on the downward slope, and the settling number in 2021 is even lower than the 10 Million units they prognosticated.

Good to hear they recognize the resilience of the Interchangeable Lens Camera and will be focusing their attention in this area. All signs point to mirrorless, and largely away from dSLR; I think they need to focus on relative shortcomings if they want mirrorless to obsolete dSLR.

• A very long period in the field is much more conducive to use of a camera that does not consume batteries quite as rapidly as today's mirrorless, for example.
  
• And elimination of the mechanical shutter even for pros needing to shoot with electronic flash, is another area.
  

Wilt wrote in post #19191094
Otherwise the Canon dSLR could continue to need to be around to meet the needs of a small but very significant group of Canon photographers.

I expect Canon to keep producing EF bodies introduced in 2019 & 2020 until 2025/2026.

They would be very smart not to spend any mroe R&D money on the EF system.

dolina wrote in post #19191115
They would be very smart not to spend any mroe R&D money on the EF system.

Regilding the somewhat tarnished golden goose

Wilt wrote in post #19191118
Regilding the somewhat tarnished golden goose

SLRs are past their prime and limits what can be done with advances from smartphone tech.