Is the DSLR going extinct?

dolina wrote in post #19432154

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Very interesting how, according to that chart, mirrorless sales volume has remained very stable ever since its inception in 2012. . Mirrorless cameras are not declining at all, when ILC cameras overall are experiencing an exponential decrease in sales from year to year.

The fact that ILC sales are dropping dramatically, yet mirrorless ILCs are maintaining their sales volume, says a lot about the success of mirrorless and the direction things are headed.

What that chart really shows is that mirrorless ILCs are NOT decreasing in sales AT ALL. . So, it is not the overall ILC market in general that is plummeting - only DSLRs are plummeting, while mirrorless ILCs are holding their own against every other year in their history.

Of course, what I just said is based on what that chart shows, and who know if that chart is accurate at all, or to what extent it is accurate?

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Tom Reichner wrote in post #19432167
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Very interesting how, according to that chart, mirrorless sales volume has remained very stable ever since its inception in 2012. . Mirrorless cameras are not declining at all, when ILC cameras overall are experiencing an exponential decrease in sales from year to year.

The fact that ILC sales are dropping dramatically, yet mirrorless ILCs are maintaining their sales volume, says a lot about the success of mirrorless and the direction things are headed.

What that chart really shows is that mirrorless ILCs are NOT decreasing in sales AT ALL. . So, it is not the overall ILC market in general that is plummeting - only DSLRs are plummeting, while mirrorless ILCs are holding their own against every other year in their history.

Of course, what I just said is based on what that chart shows, and who know if that chart is accurate at all, or to what extent it is accurate?

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Chart is based on CIPA annual worldwide shipment numbers of dSLR & mirrorless only.

If POTN allowed for tables I'd have copy pasted that over here for citations per year.

Since Sep 2018 Canon/Nikon started their transition from dSLR to MILC. At the end of their transition Pentax will own 100% of the dSLR market. Once that occurs MILC will be >5 million but I would not be surprise if MILCs will drop to below 5 million annually.

While point & shoots will go down further to ~2 million and bottom out at 0.5 million.

Prior to that from 2012-onward Android & iPhone started absorbing the consumer ILC market.

This year no CIPA member released a new point & shoot SKU. Will this trend continue in 2023-onward?

I am 100% certain that within the next 6 months we will see a Leica Q2 replacement.

There are many factors in the past two years that play into what was or wasn’t released, consumer demand isn’t the prime factor.

Look at hard it was to even buy the R3, R5, etc over the past year or two, there were consumers lined up with preorders for months, so I wouldn’t hang my hat on any real numbers in 2021/2022 and draw conclusions about consumer desires. Sales continue to go lower but how much is due to supply as opposed to demand?

2019-2023 will likely create new studies in future economy classes I feel.

TeamSpeed wrote in post #19432227
There are many factors in the past two years that play into what was or wasn’t released, consumer demand isn’t the prime factor.

Look at hard it was to even buy the R3, R5, etc over the past year or two, there were consumers lined up with preorders for months, so I wouldn’t hang my hat on any real numbers in 2021/2022 and draw conclusions about consumer desires. Sales continue to go lower but how much is due to supply as opposed to demand?

Consumers who do not buy Rebels & have more than 1 lens are part of the enthusiast market.

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19432167
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Very interesting how, according to that chart, mirrorless sales volume has remained very stable ever since its inception in 2012. . Mirrorless cameras are not declining at all, when ILC cameras overall are experiencing an exponential decrease in sales from year to year.

The fact that ILC sales are dropping dramatically, yet mirrorless ILCs are maintaining their sales volume, says a lot about the success of mirrorless and the direction things are headed.

What that chart really shows is that mirrorless ILCs are NOT decreasing in sales AT ALL. . So, it is not the overall ILC market in general that is plummeting - only DSLRs are plummeting, while mirrorless ILCs are holding their own against every other year in their history.

Of course, what I just said is based on what that chart shows, and who know if that chart is accurate at all, or to what extent it is accurate?

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I don’t know, but assume that chart includes cameras such as the m series as well. I would be interested to see what the data looks like without it.

As someone else said, I think 2020-2022 are going to be strange years for evaluating anything economically and expecting it to make sense.

dolina wrote in post #19432229
Consumers who do not buy Rebels & have more than 1 lens are part of the enthusiast market.

I guess you missed my point. In the last three years, consumers had lower disposable funds due to market stress, supply chains are greatly compromised, whether by supply or by commoditized control, and public events to even shoot something were very diminished.

Of course numbers are lower, if not simply by the fact you couldn’t even buy a camera that you wanted, or didn’t have the money to get one, or had no events to shoot. Lower demand over the past few years are due to a larger than normal number of factors, and therefore one has to be careful in the correlations they draw.

TeamSpeed wrote in post #19432239
I guess you missed my point. In the last three years, consumers had lower disposable funds due to market stress, supply chains are greatly compromised, whether by supply or by commoditized control, and public events to even shoot something were very diminished.

Of course numbers are lower, if not simply by the fact you couldn’t even buy a camera that you wanted, or didn’t have the money to get one, or had no events to shoot. Lower demand over the past few years are due to a larger than normal number of factors, and therefore one has to be careful in the correlations they draw.

Or consumers are plenty happy with their iPhones and Androids. Typical consumers take people photos and not Ansel Adams style photos.

People can get a smartphone on a monthly amortization of 1/2/3/4/5 years. No one offers that for any digital sill camera.

Annual smartphone shipments of Android + iPhone exceeds 1.4 billion even in 2021.

Number of digital still cameras has been in decline YoY a decade prior to COVID.

When

There’s no confusing you with facts that’s for sure…

I point out that it’s been hard to even get cameras like the R5 and R7, you bring up cell phones and finance deals. Btw, yes there are 1-2 year financing deals for things like cameras.

Have fun….

Total dSLR + mirrorless unit volume is about the same volume as CIPA historic figures in the 1997-1999 timeframe...what I had speculated years ago, that the steadystate volume might fall back to after the market churning caused by year after year of dSLR pixel count and high ISO progression caused so much market churning as buyers upgraded themselves over and over and over.

That and…. You can’t even buy an R7 as an example. So of course sales numbers are low.

I have been on the R7 waiting list since it was announced and only received notice last week that it was finally available. I am in the majority for this type of sales situation. This happened with the R5 and R3 as well.

dolina wrote in post #19432247
...Or consumers are plenty happy with their iPhones and Androids. Typical consumers take people photos and not Ansel Adams style photos.

One thing that chart does not show is the number of phones in service. I know for myself and my wife, we are responsible for maybe 10~12 of those phones but only 2 are still in use. A more accurate metric is one that comes from the service providers where they track how many calls from individual phones by tracking the phones IMEI or ESN. But then cameras have the same issue. I have had quite a few Canon and one Nikon digital camera but only 4 are still in use. I know two of the cameras i sold are still working but both owners have given up on SLRs and prefer their phones.

gjl711 wrote in post #19432262
One thing that chart does not show is the number of phones in service. I know for myself and my wife, we are responsible for maybe 10~12 of those phones but only 2 are still in use. A more accurate metric is one that comes from the service providers where they track how many calls from individual phones by tracking the phones IMEI or ESN. But then cameras have the same issue. I have had quite a few Canon and one Nikon digital camera but only 4 are still in use. I know two of the cameras i sold are still working but both owners have given up on SLRs and prefer their phones.

You're an statistically insignificant outlier. Typical user only has 1 SIM/smartphone.

So even if you had 1 million couples like yourselves with a dozen smartphones between them then you've be ~0.1%?

There are individuals with a dozen L lenses but they're statistically insignificant as almost all are Rebel + kit lens-only.

dolina wrote in post #19432271
You're an statistically insignificant outlier. Typical user only has 1 SIM/smartphone.

So even if you had 1 million couples like yourselves with a dozen smartphones between them then you've be ~0.1%?

There are individuals with a dozen L lenses but they're statistically insignificant as almost all are Rebel + kit lens-only.

I don't think we are an outlier. How many phones have you had between 1997 and today. I'm guessing it's going to be quite a few. Until recently our carrier updated out phone every other year. (they no longer do that) My point was that phones, unlike SLRs are routinely upgraded and many times with a short interval between upgrades. The old phones are either exchanged or tossed so the volume of phones will be much higher than cameras. Also, your chart stops at 2007. If you look at the latest numbers, phones have hit their steady state.

https://www.sellcell.c​om …hones-are-sold-each-year/
https://www.statista.c​om …-to-end-users-since-2007/

gjl711 wrote in post #19432277
I don't think we are an outlier. How many phones have you had between 1997 and today. I'm guessing it's going to be quite a few. Until recently our carrier updated out phone every other year. (they no longer do that) My point was that phones, unlike SLRs are routinely upgraded and many times with a short interval between upgrades. The old phones are either exchanged or tossed so the volume of phones will be much higher than cameras. Also, your chart stops at 2007. If you look at the latest numbers, phones have hit their steady state.

https://www.sellcell.c​om …hones-are-sold-each-year/
https://www.statista.c​om …-to-end-users-since-2007/

You misrepresented your statement.

You made it appear that between the two of you you had a dozen phones per year.

I do not question such odd consumer behavior as I do not know your use case. I chalked it up to outliers.

If you mean you had a dozen phones since 1997 then we are having a different conversation.

The ~1.4 billion shipped smartphones worldwide that the video covers are are annual numbers. That's like ~20% of the world population. The other ~80% are probably using older phones or do not have phones at all due to age, geographic location or income bracket.

As compared to ~0.1% of the world population for digital still cameras (ILC + P&S)

The image chart & image table I posted are of digital still cameras & not smartphones.

The video chart covers film, digital still cameras and smartphones annual worldwide shipping numbers.

Wilt wrote in post #19432260
Total dSLR + mirrorless unit volume is about the same volume as CIPA historic figures in the 1997-1999 timeframe...what I had speculated years ago, that the steadystate volume might fall back to after the market churning caused by year after year of dSLR pixel count and high ISO progression caused so much market churning as buyers upgraded themselves over and over and over.

It is also possible that smartphones offer better value & utility to people so they started spending their money on smartphones starting in 2008-onward rather than any digital still camera.

This is reflective of consumer digital still cameras dropping in volume while enthusiasts & and professional users still buying digital still cameras.

If I was a bit smarter I'd have stopped buying bodies by by 2009 Canon EOS 1D Mark IV.

Next body would have been a 2021 Canon EOS R3 or 2023 Canon EOS R1.