Is the DSLR going extinct?

dolina wrote in post #19432285
It is also possible that smartphones offer better value & utility to people so they started spending their money on smartphones starting in 2008-onward rather than any digital still camera.

If I was a bit smarter I'd have stopped buying bodies by by 2009 Canon EOS 1D Mark IV.

Consumers simply adopted 'multifunction and small'...MP3 players and GPS units and cameras and pocket calculators and laptop computers cand Palm Pilot organizers/contacts/ca​lendars could all be abandoned with the advent of the smartphone. The consumer did not care about 'best performance', they cared about multifunctionality with pocket portability, and lowered bulk and weight.

TeamSpeed wrote in post #19432259
There’s no confusing you with facts that’s for sure…

I point out that it’s been hard to even get cameras like the R5 and R7, you bring up cell phones and finance deals. Btw, yes there are 1-2 year financing deals for things like cameras.

Have fun….

Yes, I've seen the 1 year finance deals for cameras but it isn't pushed to end users as aggressively as smartphones with telcos or with as many companies offering it.

Apple directly offers financing from Apple.com. Does Canon/Nikon/Sony do that?

If its supply chain constraints for R5 & R7 then that's different. Canon/Nikon/Sony/et al assumed no one will be buying digital still cameras during COVID so why be agrresive in moving stocks that may go stale.

It is possible that key parts of the chain had deliverables concerns.

I spoke to the country manager of Asus and they told me that one audio chip was missing for them to ship a SFF PC hence they could not deliver it that way so the delays it caused.

dolina wrote in post #19432285
It is also possible that smartphones offer better value & utility to people so they started spending their money on smartphones starting in 2008-onward rather than any digital still camera.

If I was a bit smarter I'd have stopped buying bodies by by 2009 Canon EOS 1D Mark IV.

Why would you have stopped buying in 2009?

dolina wrote in post #19432282
You misrepresented your statement.

You made it appear that between the two of you you had a dozen phones per year.

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No, GJL never made it seem like he had a dozen phones PER YEAR.

YOU are the one whose mind made up something about "per year" when you read his post. I never thought any such thing.

I think the vast majority of us have at least 3 or 4 cell phones lying around somewhere, with one of those cell phones in current use.

Most people are NOT in the habit of getting rid of something once our use for it is over. . Most people just keep things around somewhere in the home for years and years and years, once they are finished using it. . People like Team Speed who actually go through their things regularly and make arrangements to sell or discard the things not in use any more are not the norm. . It is probably good to do that, but most of us simply don't bother. I'm sure I have 5 or 6 or 7 DSLRs lying around in various bags and heaps of stuff that I don't do anything with, and they are cameras that I can't imagine ever using again. . In 20 or 30 years I will die, and all of those cameras, plus several more, will still be here somewhere in piles of old stuff, along with 40 years worth of cell phones.

Just because somebody says they have something does NOT imply that they are still using it.


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jcothron wrote in post #19432292
Why would you have stopped buying in 2009?

Utilization. I had a drop off of usage in 2014-onward from the previous of more than 2 days per week, every week for 52 weeks for every year... to.... 1x per 2 years from 2014-onward.

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19432294
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No, GJL never made it seem like he had a dozen phones PER YEAR.

YOU are the one whose mind made up something about "per year" when you read his post. I never thought any such thing.

Indeed... https://photography-on-the.net …showthread.php?​p=19432262

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19432294
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No, GJL never made it seem like he had a dozen phones PER YEAR.

YOU are the one whose mind made up something about "per year" when you read his post. I never thought any such thing.

I think the vast majority of us have at least 3 or 4 cell phones lying around somewhere, with one of those cell phones in current use.

Most people are NOT in the habit of getting rid of something once our use for it is over. . Most people just keep things around somewhere in the home for years and years and years, once they are finished using it. . People like Team Speed who actually go through their things regularly and make arrangements to sell or discard the things not in use any more are not the norm. . It is probably good to do that, but most of us simply don't bother. I'm sure I have 5 or 6 or 7 DSLRs lying around in various bags and heaps of stuff that I don't do anything with, and they are cameras that I can't imagine ever using again. . In 20 or 30 years I will die, and all of those cameras, plus several more, will still be here somewhere in piles of old stuff, along with 40 years worth of cell phones.

Just because somebody says they have something does NOT imply that they are still using it.

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All my charts & tables were about annual worldwide shipping numbers.

So why inject the statement of having 10-12 phones between two people into the stream of discussion?

When the discussion is about annual anything then mentioning anything else will be assumed within that time scale.

Wilt wrote in post #19432289
Consumers simply adopted 'multifunction and small'...MP3 players and GPS units and cameras and pocket calculators and laptop computers cand Palm Pilot organizers/contacts/ca​lendars could all be abandoned with the advent of the smartphone. The consumer did not care about 'best performance', they cared about multifunctionality with pocket portability, and lowered bulk and weight.

Hence my mentioning "better value & utility". It covers everything you mentioned.

Wilt wrote in post #19432299
Indeed... https://photography-on-the.net …showthread.php?​p=19432262

Thank you! They were referring to my chart that describes annual worldwide shipments of

- smartphones
- p&s
- dSLR
- film
- MILC

Then mentioned they had 10-12 phones between 2 people.

When I read it I thought they really loved collecting smartphones on an annual basis.

Now, if you guys want to talk the replacement cycle of smartphones. I have this article.

https://www.cnet.com …ing-less-sense-than-ever/

Well, actually, I am responsible for maybe 1200~1800 of those phones a year. But not for me personally. I work for a Telco and we load test our product with a bank of mobiles. We replace about 33% of them yearly.

gjl711 wrote in post #19432314
Well, actually, I am responsible for maybe 1200~1800 of those phones a year. But not for me personally. I work for a Telco and we load test our product with a bank of mobiles. We replace about 33% of them yearly.

Praise be to Steve Jobs on the 11th year anniversary of Sensation!

Sure would be nice to somehow know how many people ditched their cameras for a mobile device, these sales numbers hold no correlations today for that.

It would also be nice to add preorder numbers to the camera sales numbers, since supply is so difficult over the past 2-3 years.

All we have are marketing sales numbers of X vs Y, and no preorder numbers, or any metric at all that shows photographer A switched from camera to phone.

Even a poll just here on POTN wouldn't give that number, because if someone has moved to a phone for photography and ditched their gear, they likely would have left the forum, and in fact many already have for "greener pastures" of other social outlets, even if they still use their gear.

Like so many other statistics, 10 people might be able to draw up 15 different conclusions, with none being completely right, and maybe all being slightly right.

The end of the DSLR (and now mirrorless) has been circulating for 5 years or more. Yet here we have manufacturers still producing new products, so yes the numbers shrink for a number of reasons.

I think that is a good thing. That means my results might stand out a bit more for higher quality work vs my competition in the area. I saw the same thing when Rebels were on sale and people rushed to get them, and we had a rash of "I am a photographer for senior, event or family photos", only to see so many of them fail because they thought just getting a camera was enough. Ditto with phone users, and in many cases, the results are now even worse.

Fun archived threads on topics like DSLR is dead, mirrorless vs DSLR:
https://photography-on-the.net …read.php?t=1493​114&page=1
https://photography-on-the.net …/showthread.php​?t=1399104

There are a few others too, but these were more active.

TeamSpeed wrote in post #19432426
Sure would be nice to somehow know how many people ditched their cameras for a mobile device, these sales numbers hold no correlations today for that.

It would also be nice to add preorder numbers to the camera sales numbers, since supply is so difficult over the past 2-3 years.

All we have are marketing sales numbers of X vs Y, and no preorder numbers, or any metric at all that shows photographer A switched from camera to phone.

Even a poll just here on POTN wouldn't give that number, because if someone has moved to a phone for photography and ditched their gear, they likely would have left the forum, and in fact many already have for "greener pastures" of other social outlets, even if they still use their gear.

Like so many other statistics, 10 people might be able to draw up 15 different conclusions, with none being completely right, and maybe all being slightly right.

Odds are people with a Rebel or used any higher-end dSLR like a Rebel (recording people & pet photos) would replace it with a iPhone or Android for these reasons

- utility
- value
- convenience
- cashflow
- always being with you, always

For enthusiasts and professionals those reasons are not key points to buy any ILC.

I made an observation on POTN based on peak LIKES of these

- Post your Bird Portraits (2)
- Post your Bird Portraits

From my perspective about half of all POTN users from year 2015-2021 stopped logging in by 2021-onward if LIKES are a good indicator.

Reasons varies from

- mortality
- hiatus (like me)
- change of hobby/profession
- change of economic life
- Facebook

When I buy gear I reach out to dealers outside my country for supply and pricing. I tend to buy from HK when PH distributor doesn't play ball. PH distributor has the EOS R3 on indent order while HK has it on hand. They've been very successful in EOS R5 sales as reflective on the BHPhoto best selling list.

PH distributor halted all imports of any EF bodies & lenses out of fear of having dead stock. I made inquiries on the EOS 5Ds R when prices dropped to $1.5k in the US and was told they have not brought that in for a few months already.

HK dealer told me they can deliver the 2022 RF 1200mm f/8L IS USM lens as they have stock. If I did better in the markets I may have picked one up for laughs and giggles.

If you did a lot better in the markets THIS year you might have been in the wrong line of work.

jcothron wrote in post #19432443
If you did a lot better in the markets THIS year you might have been in the wrong line of work.

CNBC survey among US millionaires said they'd put their money in fixed income or even cash.

Thankfully I followed their suggestion than my stock market friend who laughed at my 6% p.a.

Now, he's red red red

During the March 2020 crash that same friend was paralyzed with fear on what to buy and only did over the counter transactions to fund his account.

There's one growth stock he turns his nose on that dropped to 1.00/share then peaked at 19.00/share 49 weeks later.

Shesh... I could have made my nest egg if I did not talk to him from March 2020-onwards