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Thread started 12 Jun 2011 (Sunday) 17:43
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5d Mark III effect on 5d Mark II supply?

 
whotaketh
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Jun 12, 2011 17:43 |  #1

I'm not sure if this has been asked (or addressed) yet, but I'm not about to search through a hundred+ pages, but given the scarcity of the 5dmkii's these days, I'm not sure I see how a potential 5dmkiii would make the mkii cheaper. Wouldn't Canon wind down mkii production while ramping up the mkiii? And if that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to pick up a mkii now?


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Doostur
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Jun 12, 2011 17:50 |  #2

MKii production would slowly come to an end. The MKiii would take over production at about the same price as the mkii (or slighly more $3000+/- $500).

I am waiting for the MKiii. If I can get my hands on one right away then I'll buy it. I'm sure supply will be thin for the first few months and I'm guessing there will be a $500-$1000 mark up by resellers.

If thats the case I'll buy a lightly used MKii. I predict the used market will be flooded with used mkii bodies. Reguardless its a win win for me. I'll either get a new camera or a used MKii for pretty damn cheap. Remember that the MKii is still an awesome camera!


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whotaketh
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Jun 12, 2011 17:57 |  #3

Doostur wrote in post #12581762 (external link)
MKii production would slowly come to an end. The MKiii would take over production at about the same price as the mkii (or slighly more $3000+/- $500).

I am waiting for the MKiii. If I can get my hands on one right away then I'll buy it. I'm sure supply will be thin for the first few months and I'm guessing there will be a $500-$1000 mark up by resellers.

If thats the case I'll buy a lightly used MKii. I predict the used market will be flooded with used mkii bodies. Reguardless its a win win for me. I'll either get a new camera or a used MKii for pretty damn cheap. Remember that the MKii is still an awesome camera!

I would've imagined it'd be like how production on the 70-200 2.8 IS just came to an end when the mkII version came out. I'd still love to get my hands on a 5dmkii, but I'm put off by the price and all these rumors about what the 5dmkiii will have in it. I'll end up getting the 5dmkii whenever the mkiii comes out, it's just a question of when the best time is, given the disruption in the supply chain.


- 60D(w/ Zeikos grip) - 5d2 - 70-200 f2.8L IS I - 85 1.8 - Sigma 50 1.4 DG HSM - 24 1.4L II - 580EX II

  
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MOkoFOko
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Jun 12, 2011 18:18 |  #4

whotaketh wrote in post #12581736 (external link)
I'm not sure if this has been asked (or addressed) yet, but I'm not about to search through a hundred+ pages, but given the scarcity of the 5dmkii's these days, I'm not sure I see how a potential 5dmkiii would make the mkii cheaper. Wouldn't Canon wind down mkii production while ramping up the mkiii? And if that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to pick up a mkii now?

The general scarcity is due to the ongoing production problems in Japan related to the Tsunami/quakes/etc. It's the same news with other in-demand bodies (7d, 1d4. etc), lenses, and accessories. Don't take this as a sign that everything is about to be replaced!!

We're more likely to see a 5d3 in March 2012 vs Sep. 2011.


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yuriyo923
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Jun 12, 2011 18:48 |  #5

whotaketh wrote in post #12581790 (external link)
I would've imagined it'd be like how production on the 70-200 2.8 IS just came to an end when the mkII version came out. I'd still love to get my hands on a 5dmkii, but I'm put off by the price and all these rumors about what the 5dmkiii will have in it. I'll end up getting the 5dmkii whenever the mkiii comes out, it's just a question of when the best time is, given the disruption in the supply chain.

If 70-200mm mkII showd us anything, there wont be much of a price drop with 5D2 once 5D3 comes out. When the new 70-200mm MK2 came out, the price of the original lens went up, or at least it seems like that!!


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stayhumble
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Jun 12, 2011 19:32 |  #6
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^although true. that is not the same with camera bodies.


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yuriyo923
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Jun 12, 2011 23:56 |  #7

True.. When 5D2 Came out, the price of 5Dc went down about $100-$200. So if the going rate for 5D2 today is 2000-2300 we'll see them for $1800-$2000.


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pieq314
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Jun 13, 2011 04:03 |  #8

yuriyo923 wrote in post #12583337 (external link)
True.. When 5D2 Came out, the price of 5Dc went down about $100-$200. So if the going rate for 5D2 today is 2000-2300 we'll see them for $1800-$2000.

Recently, I check 5D2's price at B&H and it was listed as $2500.


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whotaketh
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Jun 13, 2011 08:47 |  #9

MOkoFOko wrote in post #12581882 (external link)
The general scarcity is due to the ongoing production problems in Japan related to the Tsunami/quakes/etc. It's the same news with other in-demand bodies (7d, 1d4. etc), lenses, and accessories. Don't take this as a sign that everything is about to be replaced!!

We're more likely to see a 5d3 in March 2012 vs Sep. 2011.

I guess that's my point though. Does it make sense for Canon to ramp up production of the 5d2 (so many acronyms for this thing) only to wind it down with an imminent 5d3 launch? If I look at this from an overall business point of view, it would make sense for Canon to be building up 5d3 production and announce that for a boost in their stock rather than rebuild facilities to produce what will be killed off sooner rather than later.


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n0w0rries
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Jun 13, 2011 09:01 |  #10

I think if you're holding out for a 5d3 you will be holding out for a while. If you look at canonpricewatch you can see a lot of stuff is OOS everywhere. With supply being low, they can make more money faster by manufacturing their current line. They already have the kinks worked out, and they already know how to do it.

Figure everything will get pushed back 6-12 months. If the 5d3 comes out any earlier it will be in short supply, making it really expensive.


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KenjiS
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Jun 13, 2011 09:09 |  #11

whotaketh wrote in post #12581790 (external link)
I would've imagined it'd be like how production on the 70-200 2.8 IS just came to an end when the mkII version came out. I'd still love to get my hands on a 5dmkii, but I'm put off by the price and all these rumors about what the 5dmkiii will have in it. I'll end up getting the 5dmkii whenever the mkiii comes out, it's just a question of when the best time is, given the disruption in the supply chain.

Not necessarily, Lenses are produced in batches, Canon produces a batch of lens x based on what they think they'll sell in the next 6 months, then they retool the assembly line for lens y, thats why lens supply shortages take a while to sort out, In that lens' case, retailers probubly just had what was left of the Mk 1 in their stock and hadn't gotten a shipment of them in a while.....in reality they probubly hadn't produced a run of Mk1s for a few months

Also if i remember right, if say, Associated Press or another big organization calls in an order, Canon WILL pretty much shut the assembly line down and retool specifically to make what they need ASAP...

Very few lenses are produced year round, Even kit lenses are made in huge HUGE batches....

Bodies are manufactured pretty much the same way i think...its just a matter of how many sensors/processors/oth​er parts they get in and can assemble into the final product, box and ship to retailers...and im pretty willing to bet the big companies get first dibs on them as well


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KenjiS
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Jun 13, 2011 09:12 |  #12

n0w0rries wrote in post #12584704 (external link)
I think if you're holding out for a 5d3 you will be holding out for a while. If you look at canonpricewatch you can see a lot of stuff is OOS everywhere. With supply being low, they can make more money faster by manufacturing their current line. They already have the kinks worked out, and they already know how to do it.

Figure everything will get pushed back 6-12 months. If the 5d3 comes out any earlier it will be in short supply, making it really expensive.

The other thing is due to events in japan, a lot of manufacturing facilities had to be shut down, Even if the body is assembled in another country, parts for it might not be...The fact is, things might be OOS because Canon didnt finish their final run before they planned to retool to produce the 5DIII...At this point Canon might feel its better to get a head start on 5DIIIs and try to release them at the end of the year, theres also of course the possibility that some tooling might have been damaged, if not at Canon, then at a parts supplier, and its simply not a cost effective matter to secure a new supply line for just one more run...

Keep in mind the number of current 5DII owners who will buy a 5DIII and who wouldnt buy a second 5DII, Add those to the people who currently would buy a 5DII and you will end up with a larger number of units sold..


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whotaketh
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Jun 13, 2011 09:19 |  #13

KenjiS wrote in post #12584772 (external link)
The other thing is due to events in japan, a lot of manufacturing facilities had to be shut down, Even if the body is assembled in another country, parts for it might not be...The fact is, things might be OOS because Canon didnt finish their final run before they planned to retool to produce the 5DIII...At this point Canon might feel its better to get a head start on 5DIIIs and try to release them at the end of the year, theres also of course the possibility that some tooling might have been damaged, if not at Canon, then at a parts supplier, and its simply not a cost effective matter to secure a new supply line for just one more run...

That's what I'm getting at! If this is indeed the case, that brings me back to my original question: would it make more sense to get one now, or chance the possibility of getting a new one once 5d3 is announced? (I realize you don't have a crystal ball, it's more a rhetorical question than anything)


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KenjiS
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Jun 13, 2011 09:24 |  #14

whotaketh wrote in post #12584810 (external link)
That's what I'm getting at! If this is indeed the case, that brings me back to my original question: would it make more sense to get one now, or chance the possibility of getting a new one once 5d3 is announced? (I realize you don't have a crystal ball, it's more a rhetorical question than anything)

I'd wait on the 5DIII personally, 5DIIs will flood the used market and you can get one for a LOT less (My prediction, 5DIII will launch at about $3000, 5DIIs will flood the used market and will end up at the $1800 level or so, 5D classics will likely stay around the $1000 level as will 1Ds cameras, the 1Ds II will likely fall down a bit too down into the $1500 range...)


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whotaketh
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Jun 13, 2011 11:01 |  #15

KenjiS wrote in post #12584834 (external link)
I'd wait on the 5DIII personally, 5DIIs will flood the used market and you can get one for a LOT less (My prediction, 5DIII will launch at about $3000, 5DIIs will flood the used market and will end up at the $1800 level or so, 5D classics will likely stay around the $1000 level as will 1Ds cameras, the 1Ds II will likely fall down a bit too down into the $1500 range...)

3k is a bit much for me to justify on a camera body. It'd have to have some revolutionary features in it for me to swallow that kind of expense. I look at it like the 70-200 2.8 IS refresh: the Mk 1 version was fantastic before the Mk 2 came out, and it's still that way now. It's just not as fantastic as the Mk 2. Especially since I'm no pro, the 5d2 should be fine for my purposes (liking the pros of FF, but not liking the ill-repute of the 5dc's lcd screen)


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