I'll have to do some homework and find the source of that analogy, but I'm pretty certain it was either Zack Arias or David Hobby - both above my pay grade in terms of photography.
Trying to find the source I did come across this from Zack, "Incident meters is reading the light falling on the subject regardless of whether the subject is white, black, green, grey, blue, dog, etc. You walk over to the subject, put the meter where the light is falling on it, take a reading. It says 5.6 at 60th of a second or whatever. You set your camera to 5.6 at 60th and boom! Balls on accurate. You don’t have to think about it."
On the other hand, one can use a reflective meter which is conveniently built into the camera. It is calibrated, ... to 18% gray.
Yes, so a reflective meter is trying to turn every picture I take into 18% gray. So when the model changes her top, the ETTL metering will probably change the amount of flash power. Sure, this may be accurate if you live in an 18% gray world; I don't. I live in the real world where things are of color.
When the light position doesn't change and the model's position doesn't change, the light output shouldn't change; inverse square law. Can a photographer use either meter to get a good exposure, yes - absolutely. I 100% agree that they are different tools, and that you can understand how to use one or the other to make proper exposures. But the original question pertains to accuracy... so can you reliably get your shot in a single shutter click with ETTL, or do you need to chip and make EC/FEC adjustments? If you require EC/FEC adjustments, then it's just getting you to the building... and you are compensating to get yourself to the door 