Imagine that the AF locked on the light/dark/light band in the water, behind the bird. That band is moving. What if there was another band, before this one, that appeared to be moving toward the camera. Servo might have 'tracked' that band, and focused in front of the bird, extrapolating that that is where the band would be when the shutter fired.
Keep in mind that we have NO idea what light/dark pattern the AF chooses. We also don't know it's pixel pitch, so even though we tend to focus on the neck pattern in the bird, that pattern might be too small for the AF to see.
Don't forget to toss in the reported facts that the focus point may not be exactly where the visible square and it may be much larger. It's a miracle anyone can get a good shot of a small object. On the upside my focus test at 20% of FL gave me something concrete I could work with. Looks good so far, just need the weather to cooperate on a day off to really test it.
Rod



