Will lens prices drop like a rock?

Something i found on the net the other day, Seems to me prices will be dropping on lens in the not to distanced future.

http://asia.nikkei.com …rmance-optical-components
Enjoy the read.

Assuming it's a viable future, I'm guessing manufacturers will have plenty of time to deplete current inventory.

Well lets hope lens prices drop like a rock!

ptcanon3ti wrote in post #17302027
Well lets hope lens prices drop like a rock!

No, not before I unload mine.

PineBomb wrote in post #17302033
No, not before I unload mine.

You got 3 years.

Not all elements are made from silica glass. ULD elements are made from fluorite glass, which are also very expensive and which would still need to be made normally.

I can be 100% certain that you'll never be able to buy a $425 lens for $4.25 as suggested in that article.

I wonder how good surface quality and form tolerance could be achieved with this.
Molded aspheric / freeform lenses made from special glass are common in lenses for automotive light.

The price drop which is stated there is for single aspheric / freeform lenses - so complete lens assemblies with several lenses, housing, AF, IS and "Canon" front ring would still be much more expensive than $4.25
Probably mass producted lenses for automotive cameras eg. for the distance warning will get really cheaper with this.

I'll say no. Manufacturers will just use this way to maximise their profits even more.

I think it will much longer than three years - too many other 'cheap' applications for this that will rule the market.

The article doesn't tell us much, such as if the process can be used to produce LD, ULD/ED, HRI glass (possible) and Fluorite glass (probably not likely) based lens elements, which are more likely to be used for camera lenses. It does say:

"In addition to its ability to produce low-cost optical components for use in high-performance telescopes and medical devices, the new method can also be used in to manufacture semiconductors, according to the team"

It also sounds to me more like a lens using $425 worth of this particular glass could be manufactured for $420 less and not a case where a $425 lens could be sold for $5. More realistically it would be more like a $2000 camera lens (if there were any using only silica glass) dropping in price to about $1800, assuming that the manufacturing cost is about 1/2 the sales price ... since there's also r&d, accounting, inventory, sales/marketing, transportation, manufacturer profit, store profit, etc to take into consideration.

So, I suppose that lenses manufactured with a high % of silica glass could drop in price a small amount.

My forcast based on human and more importantly corporate behavior, this may be used to generate more profit, but prices will stay the same.

CyberDyneSystems wrote in post #17316355
My forcast based on human and more importantly corporate behavior, this may be used to generate more profit, but prices will stay the same.

Agree. The final price will be based on what the market will bear, not on the cost of materials.

It's a bit like when the prices went up by about 30% a few years ago because the £ went from about 213yen to 122 yen. The £ has now gone back up to 189yen last week but lens prices haven't dropped at all to compensate.

The market for lenses is pretty competitive. Even if Canon tried to start manufacturing silica lenses and held prices constant, someone (i.e. Tamron, Sigma, or new entrants) will mimic the process, and undercut Canon.