DSLR soon obsolete

Just wondering what do you all think. I have a feeling that Nikon and Canon might follow the Nokia and Kodak way. The new mirrorless technology is developing super fast and sales of both Canon and Nikon is diminishing. Personally I am not interested it toys, I was always using L lenses and 5D cameras, but I realize that I am not longer looking for 5D MKIV, I am looking forward to the new Fuji and I think their system will evolve massively in the next 2-3 year, as will Sony and Olympus.

I read today that Canon will soon get a high MP camera and for now, Professionals will stick to the system, but I think 3-5 years from now we will see a different reality. Canon and Nikon are too slow to react.

A lot will happen in 3-5 years for sure.

Mirrorless will not be competitive until the manufacturers can solve the glacially slow autofocus problems and provide a viewfinder which rivals live view. Meanwhile, those of us who shoot sports will only be mildly curious about them.

I switched from Canon APS-C (which I have been shooting for 6+ years) to Sony APS-C mirrorless back in 2013.

The greatness of Canon system is in lenses.

The mirrorless systems have good lenses, but the choice is poorer, especially in the high quality mid price range fast zooms (although CaNikon imho mainly benefit here from the 3rd party lenses from Tamron and Sigma, Canon 17-55 is not mid price). Even in the entry level lenses, Canon has some real gems which offer a lot for relatively little money (55-250, 10-18, 85/1.8).

The Sony APS-C sensors are better in some respects (DR, high ISO noise - but especially DR) but to me, it's not critical. And it took me a while to get a lens line up I can live with, although I still wish I could just find the direct replacement for my Canon lenses (I had Sigma 17-50/2.8, Tamron 70-300 VC and Canon EF85/1.8, had I stuck with Canon I'd add 10-18).

The biggest difference is the size. I had to carry a backpack to bring my Rebel and 3 lenses along, covering 17-300 range. Heck, I had to carry a backpack just for T3i + 17-50.

With Sony, a really small (I think it's 11 x 13") and thin messenger bag that my wife used to carry her iPad around fits the body and 3-4 lenses in the 12-105 range (including a fast portrait prime), and I could easily add a 55-210 (which I simply have no need for) with room to spare. And for the casual shooting, I can mount a small prime and it would fit in my jacket pocket. Also, a big advantage for casual portrait shooting is the built in flash that tilts so it can be bounced off the ceiling. And using MF legacy lenses is a breeze, fun, and very cheap.

About the only thing I miss from my Canon days is Canon skin tones. I really liked them, and now have to tweak my RAWs to get close.

Canon can still catch up. Sony is now the king of the mirrorless market, and more or less own the mirrorless FF market, they have some very nice glass for FF, but I find their lens offering for the APS-C a bit scarce and often overpriced (the $800 10-18 is a great lens but too pricey IMHO). And so far APS-C cameras far outsell the FF cameras (this may change). If Canon came up with a decent APS-C mirrorless (EVF, tilting LCD, IBIS, a bounceable built-in flash, fast AF and a fast MF assist like focus peaking are a must for me), expanded their current EF-M line up to include a fast zoom and a scaled-down version of 85/1.8, and offered an adapter that would provide the full AF speed with EF glass (Sony can do it with A-glass on E-bodies, so why not Canon ?), they could grab a huge chunk of the market. OTOH, in 2015 Sony is rumored to come up with a Nex-7 successor which would have fast AF of A6000 and 5-axis IBIS, which would make a killer APS-C camera (there's plenty of good and decently priced Sony and Minolta A-mount glass out there and it provides a full AF speed with their adapter but no stabilization with current bodies). There's also rumor of Nikon working on FF mirrorless, they already have a very decent m43 offering (not too good in low light but superfast AF), so they are only one step from coming up with a competitive APS-C mirrorless as well. Canon has better start moving, and fast.

GregDunn wrote in post #17350223
Mirrorless will not be competitive until the manufacturers can solve the glacially slow autofocus problems and provide a viewfinder which rivals live view. Meanwhile, those of us who shoot sports will only be mildly curious about them.

Which mirrorless cameras have you tried ?

I switched from T3i to Nex-6 and I don't see a night and day AF difference. In good light it's negligible, in poor light it's more pronounced but AF is still workable. With Sony LA-EA2 adapter I am getting full DSLR AF from A-mount glass. And A6000 (the successor to Nex-6) has much faster AF.

Nikon J1 has very fast AF, of course the trade off is smaller sensor but it's not bad at all for it's size.

This was shot with a kit lens on Nex-6 in a very dimly lit dojo. I don't think I would be getting any better results with my Canon Rebel and 18-55 kit. Actually I was not getting much better results with Sigma 17-50/2.8 despite faster aperture and HSM motor.

IMAGE LINK: https://flic.kr/p/ic1S​LG

This topic has been argued here every couple of months without a solid conclusion. It looks as if camera sales have pretty much bottomed out, (at least looking at the CPIA statistics) but 5 years is a long time and things can change rapidly. Mirrorless however doesn't seem to be the answer as it's sales have been slowly dropping as well.

GregDunn wrote in post #17350223
Mirrorless will not be competitive until the manufacturers can solve the glacially slow autofocus problems and provide a viewfinder which rivals live view. Meanwhile, those of us who shoot sports will only be mildly curious about them.

They already have with the Sony a6000 which is up there with the likes of the 7D in terms of AF performance .

Canons dual pixel AF has promising prospects for mirrorless cameras as well

light_pilgrim wrote in post #17350203
Just wondering what do you all think. I have a feeling that Nikon and Canon might follow the Nokia and Kodak way. The new mirrorless technology is developing super fast and sales of both Canon and Nikon is diminishing. Personally I am not interested it toys, I was always using L lenses and 5D cameras, but I realize that I am not longer looking for 5D MKIV, I am looking forward to the new Fuji and I think their system will evolve massively in the next 2-3 year, as will Sony and Olympus.

I read today that Canon will soon get a high MP camera and for now, Professionals will stick to the system, but I think 3-5 years from now we will see a different reality. Canon and Nikon are too slow to react.

I spend a lot of time going to actual events where cameras are tolerated or allowed -- sporting events, parades, car shows, county fairs, horse shows, auto races and the like. At all of those events, I've seen maybe all of two interchangeable-lens mirrorless cameras. The most numerous cameras in use have been the ones in smart phones, followed by DSLR's equipped with some sort of 18-55mm "kit" lens.

In the area where I live, it's nearly impossible to find an interchangeable-lens mirrorless camera on sale, but you can easily find DSLR kits, which happen to be priced for less than many of the mirrorless units.

If the often fashionable mirrorless cameras are going to make DSLR's obsolete, their manufacturers are going to need to market them far more aggressively and get them into more than a handful of major market electronics and camera stores. In the area where I live you'd need to drive at least 100 miles to find a store where you could examine and try a mirrorless camera. That's no way to make an inroad in an already crowded camera marketplace.

Right now, there are too many uncomfortable resemblances between interchangeable-lens mirrorless cameras and the Advanced Photo System, which also was promoted as a world-beater, and faded after less than a decade.

With all honesty, Nokia guys did not think that they are under threat and Balmer once said that iPhone is a toy. What I am saying is that the heavy and bulky systems will be replaced by a new technology. I just see what Fuji did in the last 2 years and they already have a couple of super quality lenses. Yes, today there are many DSLR kits, but there were many Nokia phones once and so many smartphone....times have changed and I just feel DSLRs are not here to stay. They are likely to be used by Professionals for the next 3-5 years, but I am not sure what will happen beyond that.

DC Fan wrote in post #17350316
I spend a lot of time going to actual events where cameras are tolerated or allowed -- sporting events, parades, car shows, county fairs, horse shows, auto races and the like. At all of those events, I've seen maybe all of two interchangeable-lens mirrorless cameras. The most numerous cameras in use have been the ones in smart phones, followed by DSLR's equipped with some sort of 18-55mm "kit" lens.

In the area where I live, it's nearly impossible to find an interchangeable-lens mirrorless camera on sale, but you can easily find DSLR kits, which happen to be priced for less than many of the mirrorless units.

If the often fashionable mirrorless cameras are going to make DSLR's obsolete, their manufacturers are going to need to market them far more aggressively and get them into more than a handful of major market electronics and camera stores. In the area where I live you'd need to drive at least 100 miles to find a store where you could examine and try a mirrorless camera. That's no way to make an inroad in an already crowded camera marketplace.

Right now, there are too many uncomfortable resemblances between interchangeable-lens mirrorless cameras and the Advanced Photo System, which also was promoted as a world-beater, and faded after less than a decade.

I think the drop in dslr sales is more due to the rise of smartphone quality. Why spend all that money on a dslr when my smartphone has almost as many mp.

Honestly look at it from a standpoint from someone not into photography. Unfortunately people do a lot of the times judge a camera by it's cover. If you knew nothing about cameras and were looking at them in a store would you look at fancy pro looking dslrs or what look to be expensive p&s. I know they aren't but from the outside they do.

As well as sales people. At a camera store they're going to be much more experienced with dslrs than mirrorless so of course they'd recommend dslrs. Some one at a general store even with basic knowledge again would probably find it easier to sell a fancy looking dslr vs a mirrorless for the same price range

Saving, to bring back from the dead 3-5 years from now.

SLRs for portraiture (posing static subjects) and landscape use (land that doesn't move) might be waning, but certain areas of photography are still dependent on the still-irreplacable optical viewfinder.

In my experience, it all coming t the future of mirrorless technology itself, and smartphone, and even digital MF.

For majority, DSLRs are still there and have its place, but slowly people started to include smartphones and mirrorless without switching fully or change fully from DSLRs except very very few minimal people.

I bought Sony A7R, and i can honestly say, it replaced my Canon DSLR for landscapes and architecture or still life things completely, i only use Canon for sports and very fast moving subjects or AF dependable situations, so if the mirror-less reach that AF level then what else in DSLR will keep me with them?

I still keep thinking about A6000 and A7II and A77-II, all those 3 have improvements in AF, but i know they still far from my 1DX AF, but how far they are and when this gap of AF will be there? who knows what new Sony/Fuji/Olympus will come with as AF in next 3-5 years, i am ready to sell my 1DX if Sony/Fuji will bring a mirrorlass camera that will rival 1DX in AF.

gmm213 wrote in post #17350392
I think the drop in dslr sales is more due to the rise of smartphone quality. Why spend all that money on a dslr when my smartphone has almost as many mp.

Honestly look at it from a standpoint from someone not into photography. Unfortunately people do a lot of the times judge a camera by it's cover. If you knew nothing about cameras and were looking at them in a store would you look at fancy pro looking dslrs or what look to be expensive p&s. I know they aren't but from the outside they do.

As well as sales people. At a camera store they're going to be much more experienced with dslrs than mirrorless so of course they'd recommend dslrs. Some one at a general store even with basic knowledge again would probably find it easier to sell a fancy looking dslr vs a mirrorless for the same price range

A little marketing is all it takes to change consumer mind-sets and perceptions about mirrorless cameras.

From a marketing perspective, the reason mirrorless cameras haven't taken off on a broader scale in the US is because the big shakers in the consumer camera arena (Canon and Nikon) have resisted entering the mirrorless arena, and have opted to squeeze as much as they can out of DSLR's......why push a new format which will require the development of new technology and accessories, when you're still enjoying growth with existing product lines?

DSLR sales, however, haven't necessarily slowed because of the quality of smartphones...there is a distinct improvement in quality from a smartphone to a DSLR that many still appreciate. Go to any family event, and you'll see lots of people who agree. DSLR sales are slowing down because camera manufacturers are not producing products that compel consumers to upgrade from their DSLR's from 3-4 years ago. For consumers who care nothing of sensor and AF improvements, the rate of innovation has hit a plateau, and DSLR sales have followed in suit

Smartphones have, however, killed the lucrative market for P&S. As such, camera manufacturers are facing a decline in two ares: huge decline in P&S cameras, and a decline in DSLR sales.

Camera manufacturers will have to put more effort into the mirrorless market going forward, because it really is their only opportunity to continue to grow. A strong marketing push to educate consumers about the quality that mirrorless camera's provide in a significantly smaller package is enough to spark that growth. Consumers like products that are smaller, yet just as capable as their larger counter-parts. Its a pretty easy pitch, if the big players would put some effort into it

personally.....if you have a camera body that is as good looking as Fuji XT-1 (compare to any Canon or Nikon DSLR)...that can deliver a superb IQ (Sony sensors) and you have lenses as soon as Fuji (quality is as good as Canon L)...then, you can lure many serious amateurs. Like me. The only negative for me is the lack of optical VF and a relatively short battery life. I do not do sport, so AF is not so super critical, but I think they will improve massively. They have plenty of room to grow whereas DSLRs are close to their plateau.

Amamba wrote in post #17350245
This was shot with a kit lens on Nex-6 in a very dimly lit dojo. I don't think I would be getting any better results with my Canon Rebel and 18-55 kit. Actually I was not getting much better results with Sigma 17-50/2.8 despite faster aperture and HSM motor.

That's not a difficult AF situation at all. The kind of thing that are difficult for AF is tracking athletes running at the camera, like guards in basketball. Or changing subjects and distances quickly, like shooting the pass, the set and the hit all in a single sequence in volleyball. There are no mirrorless cameras that can do this competitively with SLRs so far, and it isn't even close.

I also agree with DC Fan's assessment. When mirrorless came out several years ago, my initial take was that these new smaller cameras would displace SLRs, especially at the low end. Now I'm a lot less sure. They are almost all priced higher than entry level dSLRs, especially when stacked up head to head on features. And typical entry-level dSLR buyers are looking for the kind of AF performance the SLR gives them to shoot their kid's soccer game or whatever. They don't see the value, and I don't blame them. That's why there is still a huge stack of D3X00 or T5i two lens kit boxes near the door at Costco, but no NEX or Fuji kits sitting there.

I played with a Fuji XT-1 recently for a week. Very nice camera, and I can see why demanding amateurs would love these for events, portraits, travel, landscapes etc. But I tried it out at a basketball game on a lark, and it was hopeless compared to my SLRs. I think mirrorless is carving out a significant market in the 'advanced amateur' arena, but they are not hitting the top end or the entry level quite so much, due to performance and pricing.