Yes, you can know enough about the chance of a loss to make an informed decision. It is very simple.
Fact A: Insurance companies have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. As such,
Fact B: Insurance companies DO know the odds of you having a loss. Therefore,
Fact C: Insurance companies will ALWAYS charge more for premiums than they pay out in claims.
Conclusion:
Fact D: Insurance of any kind is always a losing proposition until you have a loss.
Fact E: Insurance companies make money because by aggregating the risk of many people, they can better predict the cash inflows and outflows than you can as an individual. BUT insurance companies usually don't collect more in premiums than they payout in claims. Insurance is basically a commodity within a given market, so the margins are very narrow. Insurance companies actually earn their operating margin by investing the collected premiums in fixed income investments until claims are paid. They can do that better than you can, because by pooling the risk of thousands of people, they can predict when claims happen better than you can as an individual.
As a buyer, insurance is always a losing proposition really is always a losing proposition until you have a loss, but unless you know for certain when you'll have a loss and how severe it will be, you can't quantify the value of paying an insurance premium. By buying insurance, you're transferring the risk of an uncertain total loss for a certain cost of paying a premium....and there's value to that beyond the simple evaluation of cost of premiums vs what you expect to claim. Long story short, you're buying piece of mind, and that's a subjective decision no matter how much you try to quantify it.
You are not counting the entire cost of your insurance in the $5,000 vs. $12.50 per month scenario. What is your deductible? Ask you agent what a $5,000 claim will do to your rates. In my case, my home-owners/auto/motorcycle/blanket coverage will increase by a bit more than $500 per year, for 5 years, if I make a claim. That $2,500 surcharge has to be figured into the cost of any 'free' camera my insurance company may provide for me.
I don't count the entire cost of insurance, because again, without knowing the statistical likelihood of a loss, I can't do a true cost benefit analysis to determine if I'm buying at a loss, breaking even, or coming out ahead. I'm paying for the certainty the majority of whatever losses I do occur will be covered by the insurance. I'm not going to bend over backwards to analyze whether or not I come out ahead, because qualitatively, $12.50 a month isn't much money and its well worth the piece of mind.
For the record, I don't have a deductible, and a loss doesn't have any impact on the rate charged on my actual house. Its technically a separate coverage that's rated separately, and any rate adjustments will apply to the scheduled camera gear only.


