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Thread started 27 Oct 2015 (Tuesday) 23:56
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Canon Profits down - Does anyone have anymore info on this news report?

 
MalVeauX
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Oct 30, 2015 19:37 |  #46

Hrm,

Just an observation when I'm out at places with the public.

I see a lot of people using their tablets & phones, way more so, than the random person with a P&S or a dSLR or even a M43 setup. This wasn't an option a few years back when the tablet & phone wasn't capable of anything worth while. But now they are and serve multi-purposes and are so simple my 2 year old can operate. The P&S era is virtually dead. As the tablet & phone era took over, vastly. For those who want a little bit more out of image making, they still have "cameras" out there, since the bulk of sales are the entry points, not the middle or top tier stuff (ie, rebels outsell XXD's, etc all day).

Mirrorless isn't competing with the tablet & phone section. It's going to directly compete with the advanced P&S & dSLR. Which is easily the smallest market out of the whole.

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dexter75
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Oct 30, 2015 20:47 |  #47

Tom Reichner wrote in post #17766284 (external link)
That is a very good case in point.

I believe that when Canon goes full bore into the mirrorless game, it will do so offering a similarly "finished product"....or, better yet, a full product lineup.

By that I mean that I think that practice of using adaptors is somewhat ridiculous, and that Sony mirrorless users are pretty much stuck using third party lenses for any specialty work, which requires the use of adaptors between the camera and the lens. I fully believe that at some point within the next 5 or 6 years, Canon will offer a very comparable full frame mirrorless camera that either uses the EF mount, or else has it's own line of lenses - and that that lens lineup will be complete with super telephotos, many fast primes, wide-ranging zooms, tilt/shift, and true 1:1 macro lenses.

It would really surprise me if Sony ever had their own lens lineup that was as fully complete and of such excellent quality as Canon. They have never shown themselves to be optical specialists, and their camera systems have always run short when it comes to offering a wide array of native lenses for their cameras. Higher-end photography / professional photography is really driven by optics more than anything else, and Sony has never shown that they are fully committed to offering across-the-brand, long-term compatibility and specialized optics the way Canon has for decades now.

I think Canon's only mistake was that they even bothered with the EOS-M system. I think they learned form that, and are going to wait until they have a complete mirrorless system that will far surpass any system any other manufacturer offers.

Great points and its going to be much sooner than 5-6 years, more like next year! I would expect them to make an EF mount mirrorless within the next 2-3 years too.

http://petapixel.com …-mirrorless-eos-m-camera/ (external link)


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chantu
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Oct 30, 2015 20:54 |  #48

Heck, I think Canon should get a FF EOS-M next year as well as a EOS-m4 with dual pixel technology with an EVF. That would be killer. This should be in the realm of possibility.


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Scooby_Doo
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Nov 01, 2015 21:11 |  #49

Ehh... Canon get a FF mirrorless next year? I'll believe it when I see it. Also any rumors of A7R Mk 3? That's probably what it'll be competing with.




  
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Left ­ Handed ­ Brisket
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Post edited over 2 years ago by Left Handed Brisket.
     
Nov 02, 2015 10:59 |  #50

I read through a few different reports on Sony's recent earnings call, not a single one mentioned camera sales. ZERO mentions. While Canon has been making acquisitions as a way of getting into related market segments, Sony has spent much of the last few years selling off assets to stop the bleeding. They are now in a rebuilding stage, for instance buying Toshiba's sensor fab facilities.

Charlie wrote in post #17766281 (external link)
arent ipods pretty much dead?

what's your point?

Tom Reichner wrote in post #17766284 (external link)
That is a very good case in point.

I believe that when Canon goes full bore into the mirrorless game, it will do so offering a similarly "finished product"....or, better yet, a full product lineup.

By that I mean that I think that practice of using adaptors is somewhat ridiculous, and that Sony mirrorless users are pretty much stuck using third party lenses for any specialty work, which requires the use of adaptors between the camera and the lens. I fully believe that at some point within the next 5 or 6 years, Canon will offer a very comparable full frame mirrorless camera that either uses the EF mount, or else has it's own line of lenses - and that that lens lineup will be complete with super telephotos, many fast primes, wide-ranging zooms, tilt/shift, and true 1:1 macro lenses.

It would really surprise me if Sony ever had their own lens lineup that was as fully complete and of such excellent quality as Canon. They have never shown themselves to be optical specialists, and their camera systems have always run short when it comes to offering a wide array of native lenses for their cameras. Higher-end photography / professional photography is really driven by optics more than anything else, and Sony has never shown that they are fully committed to offering across-the-brand, long-term compatibility and specialized optics the way Canon has for decades now.

I think Canon's only mistake was that they even bothered with the EOS-M system. I think they learned form that, and are going to wait until they have a complete mirrorless system that will far surpass any system any other manufacturer offers.

I feel like Canon will continue to diversify their product line-up with EOS-M being a smaller light weight offering that will have a limited selection of lenses. These lenses will be good but not built to the same standard as regular EF. Think of M as "Rebel" for mirroless.

Their also will be a pro mirrorless that will use EF mount. I say this, but I am not fully convinced it will happen, and think it will only happen if they can put it out on equal footing as say a 6D. Right now there are just no real world advantage to mirrorless, other than a exposure WYSIWYG viewfinder, and that is; 1) a non issue to most 2) canceled out by other shortcomings.

I suspect that we are due a Dual Pixel AF DSLR that will really kick ass. This will then trickle down into the next gen M series cameras.

mystik610 wrote in post #17766315 (external link)
At some point mirrorless AF will meet or beat DSLR performance, and lens mounts will for all intents and purposes be universal. At that point Canon's ability to leverage their catalog of lenses will be null. For anyone who isn't shooting sports and wildlife, the a7rII's mount is basically universal already.

a friend, on more than one occasion, asked me why laptop processors were always slower than desktops. It was pretty simple from my point of view (more space, more electrical power, more heat sinking ability) he kept claiming that they should catch up and just keep it that way. That's not the way it works.

I think in large part the argument that mirrorless AF will catch up to DSLR is based on the assumption DSLR focusing is at it's peak with no more room to grow. IMO this is absurd. We simply don't know what all these engineers are working on, only time will tell.


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chantu
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Nov 02, 2015 11:46 |  #51

Scooby_Doo wrote in post #17768768 (external link)
Ehh... Canon get a FF mirrorless next year? I'll believe it when I see it. Also any rumors of A7R Mk 3? That's probably what it'll be competing with.

Wishful thinking, but I think in the realm of possibility. Really, Canon's needs to go this way if it want to compete with Sony. Another cropped EOS M would be nice, but meh.


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Post edited over 2 years ago by mystik610. (5 edits in all)
     
Nov 02, 2015 13:26 |  #52

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #17769389 (external link)
I suspect that we are due a Dual Pixel AF DSLR that will really kick ass. This will then trickle down into the next gen M series cameras.

Dual pixel is only practical in mirrorless cameras or when shooting video as it only works in live view. When Canon first brought this technology out, I was sure we'd see a mirrorless cameras with dual pixel soon. Sort of irrelevant now as the on-sensor phase detect systems used by fuji, sony, etc have basically surpassed what canon is doing with dual pixel now, but there's opportunity for Canon to further refine the system.

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #17769389 (external link)
I think in large part the argument that mirrorless AF will catch up to DSLR is based on the assumption DSLR focusing is at it's peak with no more room to grow. IMO this is absurd. We simply don't know what all these engineers are working on, only time will tell.

Relying on the mirror and a separate AF sensor is inherently a limiting and problematic method of achieving focus. Getting rid of the mirror and building the AF sensor into the image sensor not only eliminates the front/back-focusing issues that plague DSLR's to due misalignments between the AF sensor, mirror, and image sensor....it allows the camera to see more than the arbitrary beams of light that off-sensor PDAF sees, and do deeper analysis of the scene to bring do more intelligent AF. i.e., eye focus is the biggest thing to happen to portrait photography in a long time. Improvements to on-sensor PDAF and/or dual pixel will happen overtime, but the mirror-box is essentially holding the AF system of DSLR's back.


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Nov 02, 2015 13:33 |  #53

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #17769389 (external link)
Their also will be a pro mirrorless that will use EF mount. I say this, but I am not fully convinced it will happen, and think it will only happen if they can put it out on equal footing as say a 6D. Right now there are just no real world advantage to mirrorless, other than a exposure WYSIWYG viewfinder, and that is; 1) a non issue to most 2) canceled out by other shortcomings.

I suspect that we are due a Dual Pixel AF DSLR that will really kick ass. This will then trickle down into the next gen M series cameras.

a friend, on more than one occasion, asked me why laptop processors were always slower than desktops. It was pretty simple from my point of view (more space, more electrical power, more heat sinking ability) he kept claiming that they should catch up and just keep it that way. That's not the way it works.

I think in large part the argument that mirrorless AF will catch up to DSLR is based on the assumption DSLR focusing is at it's peak with no more room to grow. IMO this is absurd. We simply don't know what all these engineers are working on, only time will tell.

This! I would like this post twice if I could. Perfect explanation on both counts.


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chantu
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Nov 02, 2015 14:10 |  #54

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #17769389 (external link)
I suspect that we are due a Dual Pixel AF DSLR that will really kick ass. This will then trickle down into the next gen M series cameras.

I think in large part the argument that mirrorless AF will catch up to DSLR is based on the assumption DSLR focusing is at it's peak with no more room to grow. IMO this is absurd. We simply don't know what all these engineers are working on, only time will tell.

Actually, I think Canon dual pixel technology can be the reason mirrorless can catch up to DSLR. I don't see a reason why the phase AF detector can be integrated directly into image sensor (which in fact dual pixel does). Seems to me Canon has crippled the FPS speed in live view (with dual pixel). I found on my 7D mk2, the AF speed in live view pretty snappy in the first frame, but there is significant delay in subsequent shots. Also, I don't see why the predictive AF associated with the separate PD AF of DSLRs can't be ported over to the dual-pixel AF.

I actually think Canon is well-position to create world-class mirrorless camera if it choose to do so. But until now, they are just protecting their crown jewels of DSLRs. But the more they wait, the more Sony will eat into the DSLR market. BTW, at the end of World Series when the coach got dunked, I saw a pro photog using a Sony mirrorless.


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Nov 02, 2015 14:38 |  #55

mystik610 wrote in post #17769578 (external link)
Dual pixel is only practical in mirrorless cameras or when shooting video as it only works in live view. When Canon first brought this technology out, I was sure we'd see a mirrorless cameras with dual pixel soon. Sort of irrelevant now as the on-sensor phase detect systems used by fuji, sony, etc have basically surpassed what canon is doing with dual pixel now, but there's opportunity for Canon to further refine the system.

Relying on the mirror and a separate AF sensor is inherently a limiting and problematic method of achieving focus. Getting rid of the mirror and building the AF sensor into the image sensor not only eliminates the front/back-focusing issues that plague DSLR's to due misalignments between the AF sensor, mirror, and image sensor....it allows the camera to see more than the arbitrary beams of light that off-sensor PDAF sees, and do deeper analysis of the scene to bring do more intelligent AF. i.e., eye focus is the biggest thing to happen to portrait photography in a long time. Improvements to on-sensor PDAF and/or dual pixel will happen overtime, but the mirror-box is essentially holding the AF system of DSLR's back.

when typing that post i started to get into potential ideas that the engineers might be working on for future AF systems, but stopped myself. One thought was Pellicle Mirror technology that was first implemented (in a vastly different way than might be used for AF today) in Canon's Pellix camera (external link) in 1965. Pretty amazing tech for 50 years ago (external link). There is also Minolta's 1970's tech Off the Film Metering (external link) that printed a circuit board on the shutter curtain itself!


I'm not saying they will or that it makes perfect sense, but I would assume it might at some point be entirely possible to have DPAF with a similar system. Or their could be some kind of hybrid system. Who knows really? Probably only the people working on the next few generations of cameras at the various manufacturers. I didn't really want to get into the possibilities primarily because there are so many options it would all be pure speculation, but also because it isn't the subject of this thread. However, IMO, quarterly earnings will never be a great predictor of future technological advances or company health … maybe we could speculate some and stretch the life of this thread out for a bit longer?


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Nov 02, 2015 14:46 |  #56

oh, and this is interesting too.

http://www.canonrumors​.com …ifferent-take-on-the-evf/ (external link)

ignore the small size of the "viewfinder" and obvious non-DSLR in the drawing, something like this could be implemented on a DSLR for times that the user wanted to shoot in live view with a EVF.


i'm a little surprised we don't see more use of something like this with still shooters

http://www.the-digital-picture.com/News/News-Post.aspx?News=4830 (external link)

If they could shrink the length it just might work, especially if the image on the LCD was shrunk accordingly.


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Post edited over 2 years ago by mystik610. (4 edits in all)
     
Nov 02, 2015 15:01 |  #57

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #17769657 (external link)
when typing that post i started to get into potential ideas that the engineers might be working on for future AF systems, but stopped myself. One thought was Pellicle Mirror technology that was first implemented (in a vastly different way than might be used for AF today) in Canon's Pellix camera (external link) in 1965. Pretty amazing tech for 50 years ago (external link). There is also Minolta's 1970's tech Off the Film Metering (external link) that printed a circuit board on the shutter curtain itself!

I'm not saying they will or that it makes perfect sense, but I would assume it might at some point be entirely possible to have DPAF with a similar system. Or their could be some kind of hybrid system. Who knows really? Probably only the people working on the next few generations of cameras at the various manufacturers. I didn't really want to get into the possibilities primarily because there are so many options it would all be pure speculation, but also because it isn't the subject of this thread. However, IMO, quarterly earnings will never be a great predictor of future technological advances or company health … maybe we could speculate some and stretch the life of this thread out for a bit longer?

Sony's current DSLR cameras are actually "SLT" cameras with semi-transparent pellicle mirrors which allow for live view via the viewfinder and things like face detect. The problem is that the off-sensor PDAF system in these cameras have very limited coverage. Some are hoping that Sony will update the a99 to really take advantage of the SLT design, but it seems all of Sony's attention is on mirrorless right now. The a-mount a77 is a very good alternative to the 7DII and a step in the right direction, but at the end of the day Sony doesn't have the brand equity in the DSLR space so it seems mirrorless is their end game.

I also try not to speculate on what Canon, Sony, Nikon, etc etc will bring in the future, as we likely have no idea what it is. And I agree quarterly earnings say nothing of technological advances. Many highly innovative companies aren't even profitable right now (Tesla, Amazon, etc etc), and their stock valuations are pumped up by speculative assumptions of how these companies grow in the future. This sort of mentality is what caused the first tech bubble, but that's another topic of discussion lol


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Canon Profits down - Does anyone have anymore info on this news report?
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