I wish I could find the right YouTube video to offer a link. I think it was a recording of Dr. Chou from the School of Optometry at the University of Waterloo -- describing the issues of eye safety when viewing the sun.
The main points were that the amount of time you can stare directly at the sun without damage to your eyes varies by individual but is mainly based on how small your pupils can constrict. Younger children tend to be able to constrict their pupils to smaller sizes and you lose this ability as you age. So a fully grown adult might (and I have to re-emphases "might" because everyone is different) have permanent damage after only 40 seconds... but a young child might get away with nearly double that time.
The "problem", however, is that the eye wont experience any pain as the damage is done. He explains that if you go in for eye surgery, you'll be given something to immobilize your eyes so that your eyes wont move during the procedure, but they don't actually give you anything for pain because you have no nerves that feel pain.
He also explains that the damage isn't immediately noticed. Once the damage is done, it can take anywhere from 24-48 hours before the retinas stop functioning. He explains that you might view the sun, think you are fine when the event is over, go to bed, and wake up the following day (or possibly the day after that) and realize suddenly that you don't see so well anymore.
To view the sun "safely" you need to block out a minimum of 99.997% of all the Sun's energy... and that INCLUDES a considerably amount of energy in the infrared spectrum that you can't even see... but will still damage your retinas.
A "safe" solar filter typically blocks 99.999%. That translates into 1 photon of light (regardless of wavelength) out of every 100,000 makes it through the filter.
I often hear people mention using welding goggles. The issue here is that welding goggles come in many different grades. Once upon a time they were smoked glass. Today they're often modern polymers and the filters are designed to block the wavelength light emitted by the type of welding torch (which varies depending on the type of welder). These filters do not universally block the full visible spectrum plus the IR spectrum adequately to protect the eyes.
I just looked at an ad on Amazon -- someone selling 10-stop welding goggles for eclipse viewing. 10 stops is ABSOLUTELY NOT SAFE (10 stops works out to 99.9% and you need a minimum of 99.997%. While this might seem trivial because of how it's presented as a decimal value... it's actually more than 100 times more light than is safe.) A "safe" solar filter will have an optical density of 5.0 (each 0.3 is 1 photographic "stop" - so that works out to 16.67 stops - but these aren't just stops in the "visible" spectrum, they also block the IR spectrum.)
I often tease my audience with the caution: "Do NOT stare DIRECTLY into the Sun with your last remaining working eyeball!" (and they usually laugh)
I can't say you "will" go blind, but the risk of non-reversible damage (including blindness) is extremely high and it's just not worth the risk when there are relatively cheap things you can do to guarantee you wont have that outcome. I order some solar filters to hand out in "bulk" quantities and in these high quantities they're about 60 cents each. If I ordered them in even higher quantities I could get that down to less than 50 cents each. But even if you buy just one pair of eclipse viewers for $2... that's still really cheap insurance against the alternative of having your vision screwed up for life.
There is also some (false) assumption that once the sun is partially eclipsed that it is safe to view. It is NOT safe until it's fully eclipsed. Suppose the Sun is 90% blocked by the moon. That doesn't mean it's only 1/10th as bright... that means the remaining 1/10th of the sun is just as bright as it ever ways (because the moon is blocking that section at all) ... it's just projecting onto a smaller area of your retina (so you're destroying the retinas in a smaller area of your eye instead of a larger area of your eye, but you're still doing the damage.) Remember that your eye actually is "focusing" a sharp image of the sun onto your retina.
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/safety.html
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/safety2.html