Sony A9: Is Canon doomed ?

Croasdail wrote in post #18690133
Mbell - I know you are obviously a Canon loyalist, but lets be real. Panasonic, Olympus, Sony all had mirrorless for years before Canon gave it their first attempt. As a Canon user of over 30 years, I have absolutely been faithful to Canon. But in recent years what they thought was important and what the market has ben moving towards are two different things. Canon has been hanging in there on their legacy, not their innovation. Canon's own started sensor patent application came months after Sony's Patent for a Multilayer Stacked CMOS Sensor. In fact Sony announced its first patented stacked sensor back in 2012.... a long time before Canon's first.

Canon's "system" is a great system. But at the individual component level, they are lacking right now. This doesn't mean you can't capture great images from them - heck a good photographer can capture great image with their phone. Canon simply is failing to innovate - they simply evolve.

The problem is Canon is a couple of generations behind both Sony and Nikon on sensor technology. Those difference don't make a huge difference in the end product, but they do change how one shoots. In the end though, it is the end product that makes a difference - the image. And all can produce fantastic images.

I switched to Sony once, Fuji once, Olympus once, Panasonic twice and I owned a Nikon DSLR along with a Canon DSLR years ago. I am only a Canon loyalist because unlike others, I have actually tried the other top brands and found Canon to be the best for my needs. Ive used the comparison before and I will again, Canon is like Apple. Everyone cries that they dont innovate with their iPhones and haven't for years and their tech is behind others like Samsung etc...They still sell a ton of iPhones because the vast majority of consumers couldn't care less about specs, thats for the enthusiasts drooling over processor speeds and sensor tests, which is a very small minority of people. The majority of consumers want what they are familiar with and what works for them. You think all the pros from the NFL, FIFA, NBA, MLB, NHL and all the National Geographic shooters who make a ton of money from their images and shoot Canon cameras are sitting around checking dxomark to decide which camera they should be using? Hardly. Thats why Canon cameras still dominate most every genre of photography. Its not even close really.

Croasdail wrote in post #18690133
Mbell - I know you are obviously a Canon loyalist, but lets be real. Panasonic, Olympus, Sony all had mirrorless for years before Canon gave it their first attempt. As a Canon user of over 30 years, I have absolutely been faithful to Canon. But in recent years what they thought was important and what the market has ben moving towards are two different things. Canon has been hanging in there on their legacy, not their innovation. Canon's own started sensor patent application came months after Sony's Patent for a Multilayer Stacked CMOS Sensor. In fact Sony announced its first patented stacked sensor back in 2012.... a long time before Canon's first.

Canon's "system" is a great system. But at the individual component level, they are lacking right now. This doesn't mean you can't capture great images from them - heck a good photographer can capture great image with their phone. Canon simply is failing to innovate - they simply evolve.

The problem is Canon is a couple of generations behind both Sony and Nikon on sensor technology. Those difference don't make a huge difference in the end product, but they do change how one shoots. In the end though, it is the end product that makes a difference - the image. And all can produce fantastic images.

Blue text might reflect the PERCEPTIONS of some folks on POTN, but the reality of the shipment figures does not support that belief.

• CIPA figures show that for the ENTIRE PERIOD of Jan 2012 to July 2018, ILC (mirrorless) shipments have never exceeded 400k units shipped per month, except during THREE months!
  
• CIPA figures show that for the ENTIRE PERIOD of Jan 2012 to July 2018, ILC (mirrorless) shipments have always run within the band of 200k to 400k units per month (except during THREE months >400k!)
  

First, lets clarify something. I am on those sidelines. I am shoulder to shoulder with those people. I shoot for the ACC and SEC conferences. Not NFL... but it is all the same crowd shoots those games too. There is currently a healthy mix of Canon and Nikon out there. You'll see lots of 1Dx and 850s out there. Its by far not a one sided showing in the pits.

Second, latest marketshare numbers for new DSLR sales.... Sony as of the latest qtr is now the number one brand with double the sales of both Nikon and Canon combined. Doesn't mean much as because the majority of those are hobbyist. But again, general marketshare numbers mean nothing. And Nikon and Canon will surely release new bodies in Q3/Q4.

At the end of 2017 - traditional dslr sales decreased from 5.99 million to 5.73 million. Mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras moved from 2.07 million to 3.04 million.

Canon's own press release states it this way...

"….With the Kumamoto earthquake finally in the past, we see that the shipments overall for this month is almost that of the year past and maintain a little consistency from month to month at around 95% of last year’s March shipments. Japan for the first time ever has shipped more Mirrorless than DSLR’s which is an interesting notable that will have to be watched in the coming months ahead.

….DSLR’s continue to ship less, thereby raising the mirrorless market share. This month instead of looking at percentages, we’re going to look at units, where it shows a far more startling trend for DSLR’s over the last 4 or so years than it does if you looked at percentages of market."

Lastly.... why did you change brands so often? Sony, Fuji, Panasonic, Nikon? As you mentioned, pros don't jump around from brand to brand. And as you say, you are a pro shooter who makes your living in photography. There had to be some compelling for you to want to change... or at least kick the tires? If your getting the shots you want, you don't mess up your business and change up your workflow unless there is a really compelling reason. I have bought tons of point and shoots for pocket/fun cameras - have a shelf full of them. But for my paid work, I've been Canon and only Canon since 1985. It was only by mistake that I discovered the increased headroom of the Sony chips when I bought a Sony A6000 for my personal use - and started processing images and was impressed by the latitude in the images. I wasn't looking for something else... it was purely by accident I dipped my toe into the mirrorless and EVF world. I now have over 50,000 frames on a A7 II, and about the same on the A6000.

I plan on using my 1DX II with my Canon 400 2.8 for the beginning of this season - while I wait to see what Canon comes up with later this year. But unless they do something soon, I will be retiring the 1DX and move to a Sony A9 with their new 400. I am hoping and praying Canon responds strongly. I have too much invested in Canon glass. And I know the system. I am hoping to hold off making a decision until next years sports season.

These arguments/debates are about as useful as GM vs Ford in pickups debates - with Sony playing the role of Toyota that is sneaking up on the two of them.

Well Nikon at least for me didn't come up with something revolutionary with Z6 and Z7 announcements. Can't imagine Canon will do anything better than what Nikon offered.

bobbyz wrote in post #18691380
Well Nikon at least for me didn't come up with something revolutionary with Z6 and Z7 announcements. Can't imagine Canon will do anything better than what Nikon offered.

I wish for dual sd cards.

AlanU wrote in post #18691387
I wish for dual sd cards.

Me too. And I see that max sync is 1/200. If I remember correctly Sony are 1/250 and Nikon dSLRs used to be more like 1/320.

AlanU wrote in post #18691387
I wish for dual sd cards.

The funny thing is if Canon just doesn't royally screw up with an issue that bricks the camera, all they really have to do is:

1) Have 2 cards slots
2) Have Eye AF
3) Have batteries that last more than 300 shots, and can shoot more than 15mins of video

IF they do those 3 things, they'll likely steal any Nikon users thinking of mirrorless...at least any that aren't already going to go to Sony.

Nikon announced a decent product, and has a nice lens roadmap...but like I knew they would, the first iteration dropped the ball in at least one area. It's a solid first effort, and had it come out 4 years ago it'd probably have been a hit. Only problem is it isn't 4 years ago, and they can't really compare to anyone else who is already established.

Sony A7/A7R series has 2 slots and battery life is in the thousands of shots per charge
They also have EYE AF (a game changer for shooting people)

GH5/s has 4k60 in 10bit, tilty-flippy screen, and I would get close to 2hrs record time from a battery

Everyone has a better lens lineup available today. No waiting 3 years to get a full kit for prosumers and professionals. Hopefully Canon listens to their users (something Nikon is known for not doing) and doesn't make the same missteps.

bobbyz wrote in post #18691397
Me too. And I see that max sync is 1/200. If I remember correctly Sony are 1/250 and Nikon dSLRs used to be more like 1/320.

Most Nikons were 1/250, but a couple recently have been 1/200 (D600/610 and most of the entry level models going back).

Croasdail wrote in post #18691304
First, lets clarify something. I am on those sidelines. I am shoulder to shoulder with those people. I shoot for the ACC and SEC conferences. Not NFL... but it is all the same crowd shoots those games too. There is currently a healthy mix of Canon and Nikon out there. You'll see lots of 1Dx and 850s out there. Its by far not a one sided showing in the pits.

Second, latest marketshare numbers for new DSLR sales.... Sony as of the latest qtr is now the number one brand with double the sales of both Nikon and Canon combined. Doesn't mean much as because the majority of those are hobbyist. But again, general marketshare numbers mean nothing. And Nikon and Canon will surely release new bodies in Q3/Q4.

At the end of 2017 - traditional dslr sales decreased from 5.99 million to 5.73 million. Mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras moved from 2.07 million to 3.04 million.

In industry news, I had viewed a chart showing this:
While dSLR sales continue to slip in its downward trend (shipments now at 50% of unit the volume of 2012), MILC is largely stagnant in worldwide UNITS SHIPPED. Growth is up from its slump, but growth is no better in total units per month over the past six year! MILCs shipped are largely staying within the 200k-400k units shipped per month, for the period of Jan 2012 to June 2018...not a significant gain in units shipped! Only 3 months ever in the last 6 years have unit shipments ventured above 400k in a month (before falling back below 400k in the next month). That unit volume is hardly 'growth'...the growth of market share comes about only due to the mix of MILC being a larger fraction of total interchangeable lens cameras shipped (a declining number).

in a report for the year https://www.statista.c​om …reflex-cameras-worldwide/
"Unit shipments of digital non-reflex cameras** by CIPA* companies from 2012 to 2017 (in millions)" the 2017 year report was 4.08 million units (compared to 3.96 million units in 2012), a growth of only 3% for Interchangeable Lens Digital Sensor Cameras (a.k.a. mirrorless) in five years.

While Mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras may have moved from 2.07 million to 3.04 million (to use your figures) even 4 million is still only 33% of all interchageable lens cameras shipped annually, the 'growth of market share' is large due to the decline of dSLR shipments (and decline in all cameras shipped)

If the overall market is falling, by "my" product within that segment is holding steady, I am a very happy person. If you were to draw trend lines across the sales, I am not sure any executive is going to free up research dollars to invest in traditional slr cameras.

If you were an investor - which would you put your money on. The larger incumbent who has currently larger marketshare, but is declining in total gross sales, or the company that has a stable market for their product?

I would be really surprised if anyone at Canon or Nikon is going to stake their jobs/career on reversing the sales numbers for those camera lines. At least I wouldn't.

It is like automatic transmissions. There was a day when "straight" drive cars pulled. And no self respecting car enthusiast would think of driving anything by a manually shifting car. Flash forward and its hard to find a performance car not shipped with an automatic or semi-automatic transmission. Conspicuously missing is the clutch pedal. I drove manual cars my whole life, but now my most recent has panel shifters with a semi-automatic dual clutch transmission. Technology marches on. Yes, true manual cars are still available. My son still will not drive anything but. But they have become rare. it is just what it is.

bobbyz wrote in post #18691380
Well Nikon at least for me didn't come up with something revolutionary with Z6 and Z7 announcements. Can't imagine Canon will do anything better than what Nikon offered.

Im telling you, they are going to drop one of those new stacked sensors they have been collecting patents on in the new FF mirrorless and its going to destroy anything Sony has on the market. Faster AF, more FPS and better video. Im sure they are going to implement the very good dual pixel tech from the newer DSLRs as well. It may not beat the Sonys in resolution but it will in most everything else. Wait for it...

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18691814
Im telling you, they are going to drop one of those new stacked sensors they have been collecting patents on in the new FF mirrorless and its going to destroy anything Sony has on the market. Faster AF, more FPS and better video. Im sure they are going to implement the very good dual pixel tech from the newer DSLRs as well. It may not beat the Sonys in resolution but it will in most everything else. Wait for it...

Yep...keep waiting...while I will continue to shoot with my mirrorless system.

Good luck with that.

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18691814
Im telling you, they are going to drop one of those new stacked sensors they have been collecting patents on in the new FF mirrorless and its going to destroy anything Sony has on the market. Faster AF, more FPS and better video. Im sure they are going to implement the very good dual pixel tech from the newer DSLRs as well. It may not beat the Sonys in resolution but it will in most everything else. Wait for it...

It's highly unlikely.

Stacked sensors and the processing capabilities you'd have to build around it are extremely expensive to design and manufacture. The a9 is a $4,500 camera, and the primary thing that sets it apart from the $2k a7III is the stack sensor. If Canon's goal is to take market share back from Sony, then they're not going to achieve that with a niche product.....particular​ly since an a9 caliber camera would need an established ecosystem to make any sort of sense.

The bigger reason this won't happen is that Canon's M.O. has always been position products in such a way that protects their core, higher margin products. This means that Canon will likely position their mirrorless cameras to protect their core DSLR business. Nikon did some of this with the Z cameras (1 card slot). It's more likely that Canon will treat their mirrorless camreas like the 6DII.

That's fine from a strategic standpoint as people will buy Canon mirrorless cameras in droves either way. But I don't expect these cameras to be the leader in terms of performance.

mystik610 wrote in post #18691839
It's highly unlikely.

Stacked sensors and the processing capabilities you'd have to build around it are extremely expensive to design and manufacture. The a9 is a $4,500 camera, and the primary thing that sets it apart from the $2k a7III is the stack sensor. If Canon's goal is to take market share back from Sony, then they're not going to achieve that with a niche product.....particular​ly since an a9 caliber camera would need an established ecosystem to make any sort of sense.

The bigger reason this won't happen is that Canon's M.O. has always been position products in such a way that protects their core, higher margin products. This means that Canon will likely position their mirrorless cameras to protect their core DSLR business. Nikon did some of this with the Z cameras (1 card slot). It's more likely that Canon will treat their mirrorless camreas like the 6DII.

That's fine from a strategic standpoint as people will buy Canon mirrorless cameras in droves either way. But I don't expect these cameras to be the leader in terms of performance.

Right. I fully expect to see two FF Canon mirrorless cameras released, similar to what Nikon did. One around 25MP that will compete with the a7iii and Z6 and then a higher resolution model around 50MP with one of those stacked sensors that will compete with the a7Riii/a9 and Z7.

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18691863
Right. I fully expect to see two FF Canon mirrorless cameras released, similar to what Nikon did. One around 25MP that will compete with the a7iii and Z6 and then a higher resolution model around 50MP with one of those stacked sensors that will compete with the a7Riii/a9 and Z7.

And cannibalize the IDxII and 5DIV? Highly unlikely based on Canon’s prior releases.

And again...the fact that a patent exists does not mean a product will be released in the near term.

i.e. this patent exists, but it does not mean we'll be seeing contact lens cameras next year