Sony A9: Is Canon doomed ?

Hogloff wrote in post #18668571
Sony made a strategic decision to focus on the high end as they see the low end a race to the bottom where the phones sit. Canon mirror less is the bottom end, sold for little margins just to gain market share.

You have to admit that Canon passing Sony for #2 in mirrorless sales in Japan with only a couple subpar cameras is quite an accomplishment. They are closing in on them in the US too. Once they get their REAL mirrorless cameras out and the hype machine gets going, Sony is in serious trouble. Lets be honest, Id be willing to bet 25-30% of Sony's mirrorless cameras are sold to Canon and Nikon DSLR users who got tired of waiting around for mirrorless. What happens when Canon and Nikon release their mirrorless cameras? I bet a large percentage of them move right back, especially if those cameras take their current lenses without an adapter.

mystik610 wrote in post #18668584
That ship has sailed IMO.

Canikon waited too long and Sony now has a mature position in the market, and a mature product line. Will Canon and Nikon continue to outsell Sony? Realistically, they probably will. But Sony will have their place in the market by leveraging their breadth of their technological expertise as they have been to continually release products on the front end of innovation. That's personally what I care for as a photographer.

You don't have to be the volume leader to be financially successful in the market. It's a legitimate strategy to focus on low volume, high margin products as Sony has been.

I disagree. The ONLY reason Sony has that mature position in the market is because they have had zero competition. Really easy to corner sales when you are the only game in town eh? They were getting obliterated in DSLR sales and really had no choice but to move to mirrorless which was a smart move on their part. Im willing to bet Canon and Nikon blow past Sony in mirrorless sales within the first year their cameras are out. I give Sony another 2-3 years before they drop out. Remember, Sony is not an imaging company as Canon and Nikon are. They are an electronics company who also happens to make cameras and thats a small fraction of where their money is made. Everyone knows their bread and butter is gaming. Only way I see them surviving is if they start undercutting Canon and Nikon by offering their cameras and lenses considerably cheaper than the competition. We will see.

^^ you forgot about the sensor. Sony makes the best for everyone, like Nikon and my Fuji, and PhaseOne. Canon latest geatest is still crappy compared to Sony. And I am no Sony fanboy. I don't like Sony cameras but their tech like eye detect, AF etc is top notch. Canon will have to meet it if not beat it and that's most probably not happen from Canon that I know. We shall see.

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18669024
I disagree. The ONLY reason Sony has that mature position in the market is because they have had zero competition. Really easy to corner sales when you are the only game in town eh? They were getting obliterated in DSLR sales and really had no choice but to move to mirrorless which was a smart move on their part. Im willing to bet Canon and Nikon blow past Sony in mirrorless sales within the first year their cameras are out. I give Sony another 2-3 years before they drop out. Remember, Sony is not an imaging company as Canon and Nikon are. They are an electronics company who also happens to make cameras and thats a small fraction of where their money is made. Everyone knows their bread and butter is gaming. Only way I see them surviving is if they start undercutting Canon and Nikon by offering their cameras and lenses considerably cheaper than the competition. We will see.

While Sony might be the only mirrorless FF camera, they are certainly not the only 'mirrorless' game in town.

I agree that Sony is not a 'imaging company'...they are a 'consumer electronics' company.
Their reliance upon third party company for warranty work on dSLR is an indication of the lack of commitment to providing photo customers first class support...the complaints from consumers about the servicing are not hard to find.

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18669014
You have to admit that Canon passing Sony for #2 in mirrorless sales in Japan with only a couple subpar cameras is quite an accomplishment. They are closing in on them in the US too. Once they get their REAL mirrorless cameras out and the hype machine gets going, Sony is in serious trouble. Lets be honest, Id be willing to bet 25-30% of Sony's mirrorless cameras are sold to Canon and Nikon DSLR users who got tired of waiting around for mirrorless. What happens when Canon and Nikon release their mirrorless cameras? I bet a large percentage of them move right back, especially if those cameras take their current lenses without an adapter.

The Achilles heel for Canon has been their sacred cow DSLR. Time will tell if their management has the guts to compete with themselves by releasing a capable full frame mirror less camera or will the hold back features like they've always done. Sony has no such delusions as can be seen by their entry level A73 camera that competes with the 5d4 which costs about $1200 more.

It looks like Nikon is ready to release a no hands tied full frame mirror less...the question is will Canon wimped out like it has in its history.

Hogloff wrote in post #18669074
The Achilles heel for Canon has been their sacred cow DSLR. Time will tell if their management has the guts to compete with themselves by releasing a capable full frame mirror less camera or will the hold back features like they've always done. Sony has no such delusions as can be seen by their entry level A73 camera that competes with the 5d4 which costs about $1200 more.

It looks like Nikon is ready to release a no hands tied full frame mirror less...the question is will Canon wimped out like it has in its history.

Nikon is highly motivated by their loss of unit sales in the dSLR market last year; Canon is less highly motivated by loss of unit sales. Not to excuse Canon, merely pointing out greater motivation on the part of Nikon. And that loss of share is in spite of using Sony sensors in some models.

Wilt wrote in post #18669078
Nikon is highly motivated by their loss of unit sales in the dSLR market last year; Canon is less highly motivated by loss of unit sales. Not to excuse Canon, merely pointing out greater motivation on the part of Nikon. And that loss of share is in spite of using Sony sensors in some models.

Right...and I for one will not support the big gorilla that sits on its laurels because it is the leader. Me as a consumer want the high driven features that are emerging from Sony and now possibly Nikon.

We don’t need more 6d2 cameras...

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18669024
I disagree. The ONLY reason Sony has that mature position in the market is because they have had zero competition. Really easy to corner sales when you are the only game in town eh? They were getting obliterated in DSLR sales and really had no choice but to move to mirrorless which was a smart move on their part. Im willing to bet Canon and Nikon blow past Sony in mirrorless sales within the first year their cameras are out. I give Sony another 2-3 years before they drop out. Remember, Sony is not an imaging company as Canon and Nikon are. They are an electronics company who also happens to make cameras and thats a small fraction of where their money is made. Everyone knows their bread and butter is gaming. Only way I see them surviving is if they start undercutting Canon and Nikon by offering their cameras and lenses considerably cheaper than the competition. We will see.

Gaining a mature market position early by innovating before your competitors do is something called a first movers advantage.

It's something that the likes of apple, and netflix leveraged the usurp the dominance of RIM/blackberry, and blockbuster(respective​ly). RIM and blockbuster buried their heads in the sand believing that the status quo would always be what it is, and by the time they took the competitive threats seriously, apple and netflix had built established market positions and capabilities and the tides never reversed. Not at all saying that Canikon will go the way of RIM and blockbuster of course, but there is validity in establishing a strong market and competitive position in new segments early, making it difficult for incumbent brands leaders to catch up.

The fact is that Sony has established their position in the market already...in fact they are outselling Nikon in full frame ILC segment. Provided that they keep leveraging their technological capabilities to outperform Canikon at each iteration, they will always have a place in the market. Honestly, Sony is probably the best thing to happen to the camera industry in recent years even for those who have no intention to shoot Sony. The duopoly between Canon and Nikon really stunted the rate of innovation (who blinks first strategies that did nothing for consuemers), and had a third company not come and disrupt the prosumer space, we would never see the types of cameras we're seeing now.

mystik610 wrote in post #18669115
Gaining a mature market position early by innovating before your competitors do is something called a first movers advantage.

It's something that the likes of apple, and netflix leveraged the usurp the dominance of RIM/blackberry, and blockbuster(respective​ly). RIM and blockbuster buried their heads in the sand believing that the status quo would always be what it is, and by the time they took the competitive threats seriously, apple and netflix had built established market positions and capabilities and the tides never reversed. Not at all saying that Canikon will go the way of RIM and blockbuster of course, but there is validity in establishing a strong market and competitive position in new segments early, making it difficult for incumbent brands leaders to catch up.

The fact is that Sony has established their position in the market already...in fact they are outselling Nikon in full frame ILC segment. Provided that they keep leveraging their technological capabilities to outperform Canikon at each iteration, they will always have a place in the market. Honestly, Sony is probably the best thing to happen to the camera industry in recent years even for those who have no intention to shoot Sony. The duopoly between Canon and Nikon really stunted the rate of innovation (who blinks first strategies that did nothing for consuemers), and had a third company not come and disrupt the prosumer space, we would never see the types of cameras we're seeing now.

Some fair points but some inaccuracies. Apple is not innovative at all, and I say that as a huge Apple fanboy typing this on my iMac with my iPhone sitting beside me as I watch Apple TV haha. Apple did not invent the computer, the smartphone the MP3 player or the tablet. What Apple does that few other companies can is take an existing product, package it and market it brilliantly and have the masses buying it when they never even knew they wanted it. Canon is much like Apple IMO. They dont rush half baked products to market to claim they were first, they sit back and let other companies do their R&D work for them by watching what works, what doesn't and what consumers want. When they do finally release that product, its usually very well done and a massive hit. Apple lets Samsung do their dirty work and Canon has let Sony do theirs in regards to mirrorless cameras. Im not sure why some people think Canon taking their time to get into mirrorless cameras seriously means they have their "heads buried in the sand". Quite the opposite, they have been smart to wait. Canon just celebrated their 15th straight year as the top seller of ILCs and their mirrorless cameras are picking up steam. They have had zero reason to rush into the mirrorless game full on but that time is coming when the will get into it. They are running the company textbook IMO and their sales numbers reflect that.

Canonuser123 wrote in post #18668197
Any rumors on size and price range being targeted? If they can make a smaller, lighter lens than the Sigma 150-600mm and keep the cost reasonable then that would be worth looking at for me. My idea of reasonable pricing would be no more than 2K.

I'm thinking its targeting the Nikon 200-500 f/5.6E which is very affordable

Supposedly we dont have long to wait and its supposed to be one of the next lenses Sony announces

Chet wrote in post #18668597
Only with those folks that have made the switch to Sony. People still using Nikon or Canon would still gravitate to there preferred manufactures offerings, once available.

Depends on what Canon and Nikon offer TBH

FWIW, I made my bed, I bought the Sony and love it, I dont think Canon will make me regret my purchase because I expect Canon is going to price its option way out of what im willing to pay

But hey, thats all speculation and again, its not "oh canon is doomedddd" kinda deal, its more i bought Sony because its available today, i know what im getting, i know its price and i can go out and shoot with it. Which ive done a lot of

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18669170
Some fair points but some inaccuracies. Apple is not innovative at all, and I say that as a huge Apple fanboy typing this on my iMac with my iPhone sitting beside me as I watch Apple TV haha. Apple did not invent the computer, the smartphone the MP3 player or the tablet. What Apple does that few other companies can is take an existing product, package it and market it brilliantly and have the masses buying it when they never even knew they wanted it. Canon is much like Apple IMO. They dont rush half baked products to market to claim they were first, they sit back and let other companies do their R&D work for them by watching what works, what doesn't and what consumers want. When they do finally release that product, its usually very well done and a massive hit. Apple lets Samsung do their dirty work and Canon has let Sony do theirs in regards to mirrorless cameras. Im not sure why some people think Canon taking their time to get into mirrorless cameras seriously means they have their "heads buried in the sand". Quite the opposite, they have been smart to wait. Canon just celebrated their 15th straight year as the top seller of ILCs and their mirrorless cameras are picking up steam. They have had zero reason to rush into the mirrorless game full on but that time is coming when the will get into it. They are running the company textbook IMO and their sales numbers reflect that.

Apple under Steve Jobs was releasing products that was shifting the dynamic of existing markets. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone of course, but it was extremely innovative in that it created ways of interacting with a mobile device that hadn't been done previously and they single-handedly shifted the dynamic of phones going forward.

Canon is actually more akin to RIM, who resisted change and insisted that their consumers would never leave physical keyboards for the novelty of capacity touch screens....They were put too much faith in the strength of their brand for professional devices, and were caught quite off guard when consumers decided they wanted iPhones for business use as well. And the rest is history.

Removal of the mirror is akin to introduction of the capacitive touch screen in that it allows certain capabilities that flat-out aren't possible with DSLR's. Computational AF using live-view (ie eye-AF), blackout free shooting, fully silent shutters, etc etc etc. It isn't all about size...these are next gen cameras, just as iPhones were the next gen phone. And in the realm of cameras where it takes years to build out a portfolio of lenses and bodies...not to mention the expertise in this realm, having a first movers advantage means a lot.

Apple these days isn't quite the trailblazer that it used to be post Steve Jobs. And in the space of things like smart speakers and home automation, their insistence to 'wait things out' is actually working against them. Amazon and Google are sort of stumbling as they go along with google home and echo, but the market adoption is much higher because they got out the gate sooner and are innovating their products at a far more rapid pace.

mystik610 wrote in post #18669247
Apple under Steve Jobs was releasing products that was shifting the dynamic of existing markets. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone of course, but it was extremely innovative in that it created ways of interacting with a mobile device that hadn't been done previously and they single-handedly shifted the dynamic of phones going forward.

Canon is actually more akin to RIM, who resisted change and insisted that their consumers would never leave physical keyboards for the novelty of capacity touch screens....They were put too much faith in the strength of their brand for professional devices, and were caught quite off guard when consumers decided they wanted iPhones for business use as well. And the rest is history.

Removal of the mirror is akin to introduction of the capacitive touch screen in that it allows certain capabilities that flat-out aren't possible with DSLR's. Computational AF using live-view (ie eye-AF), blackout free shooting, fully silent shutters, etc etc etc. It isn't all about size...these are next gen cameras, just as iPhones were the next gen phone. And in the realm of cameras where it takes years to build out a portfolio of lenses and bodies...not to mention the expertise in this realm, having a first movers advantage means a lot.

Apple these days isn't quite the trailblazer that it used to be post Steve Jobs. And in the space of things like smart speakers and home automation, their insistence to 'wait things out' is actually working against them. Amazon and Google are sort of stumbling as they go along with google home and echo, but the market adoption is much higher because they got out the gate sooner and are innovating their products at a far more rapid pace.

How is Canon like RIM when they still dominate the camera market? I mean, Sony couldn't even hold off Canon in Japan where canon just passed them up for the second spot in mirrorless sales and Canon isn't really even trying with mirrorless yet/ Canon is FAR more dominant than RIM was. Now if Canon were to suddenly drop to 4th or 5th in camera sales, that would be very much like RIM but I think we all know thats never going to happen. As much as some people like to think its all about FF mirrorless, thats a tiny segment of the camera market. Canon's bread is buttered by moving tons of cheap consumer and prosumer cameras, not 5DIVs or any upcoming FF mirrorless cameras. Unlike RIM, Canon's products appeal to the masses, which is why they have dominated ILC sales the past 15 years. They aren't going anywhere.

Mbell1975 wrote in post #18669264
As much as some people like to think its all about FF mirrorless, thats a tiny segment of the camera market. Canon's bread is buttered by moving tons of cheap consumer and prosumer cameras, not 5DIVs or any upcoming FF mirrorless cameras.

.
You are so right. . That's where all of the money is ....... although people who hang out on photography forums and spend time reading about cameras seem to lose sight of that.

The vast vast vast majority of interchangeable lens cameras buyers are people who know practically nothing about cameras or photography. . For every one person on a photography forum, there are, like, 100 people who go into Best Buy or WalMart and buy a DSLR and a kit lens or two, having no idea what it is that they just bought.


.

mystik610 wrote in post #18669247
Apple under Steve Jobs was releasing products that was shifting the dynamic of existing markets. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone of course, but it was extremely innovative in that it created ways of interacting with a mobile device that hadn't been done previously and they single-handedly shifted the dynamic of phones going forward.

Canon is actually more akin to RIM, who resisted change and insisted that their consumers would never leave physical keyboards for the novelty of capacity touch screens....They were put too much faith in the strength of their brand for professional devices, and were caught quite off guard when consumers decided they wanted iPhones for business use as well. And the rest is history.

Removal of the mirror is akin to introduction of the capacitive touch screen in that it allows certain capabilities that flat-out aren't possible with DSLR's. Computational AF using live-view (ie eye-AF), blackout free shooting, fully silent shutters, etc etc etc. It isn't all about size...these are next gen cameras, just as iPhones were the next gen phone. And in the realm of cameras where it takes years to build out a portfolio of lenses and bodies...not to mention the expertise in this realm, having a first movers advantage means a lot.

Apple these days isn't quite the trailblazer that it used to be post Steve Jobs. And in the space of things like smart speakers and home automation, their insistence to 'wait things out' is actually working against them. Amazon and Google are sort of stumbling as they go along with google home and echo, but the market adoption is much higher because they got out the gate sooner and are innovating their products at a far more rapid pace.

Well said.