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FORUMS General Gear Talk Changing Camera Brands 
Thread started 02 Mar 2018 (Friday) 19:45
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It looks like the Canon FF MILC is a ways off yet.

 
JeffreyG
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Mar 02, 2018 19:45 |  #1

Or it's marketing speak. Who knows.

https://asia.nikkei.co​m …mirrorless-cameras?page=1 (external link)

I'm currently running two systems, Canon and Sony because I have used Canon for over a decade and because the Sony FF MILCs represent the kind of camera I am going to want going forward. I still run both brands because I have a lot of Canon lenses that I love and trust, and....well, I want to see if I really like this Sony and if Canon is interested in my business in the future.

Simple fact - If Canon offered something that was basically a Sony A7r3 or A73 and could run M and EF mount lenses with native level AF, I'd drop the Sony in a millisecond and buy it.

A lot of people think Canon will come out with a FF MILC this year.

I'm not so sure. I think Canon continues to see MILCs as Rebel competitors, despite the fact that Fuji and Sony MILCs are in no way positioned as such.


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Mar 02, 2018 21:38 |  #2

Yeah this is Canon's priority with mirrorless cameras:

Canon hopes that the new product will attract demand from families, including mothers who enjoy taking pictures of their children.

There's good business reason to do that as they can win back some of the customers they lost to smartphones while protecting the likes of the 5d, but it doesn't do anyone who wants a really capable mirrorless camera any favors.


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davesrose
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Mar 02, 2018 23:32 |  #3

I always find these articles a bit misleading with cherry picked statistics....but I do find it interesting that it says: "A latecomer to the mirrorless market, Canon released its first model in 2012 under the EOS M brand. The company held 23% of the domestic market for these cameras in 2017, ranking second behind Olympus. It aims for the top spot with the new offering." Also, when you hover over the hotspots for Canon, Olympus, and Sony, you can see how much larger Canon's capitol is. So while Sony FF MILC might be getting more market shares with professionals, looks like Canon has already made advances in attracting a market for consumer mirrorless cameras. This statistic seems to indicate that there actually are a population of folks still buying dedicated cameras (apart from photo enthusiasts going from DLSRs to Sony or Fuji mirrorless). Canon does seem to be targeting a particular demographic, in which the M50 could do well. For it's price point, it doesn't look like a bad camera.

I know people have been trying to read into Canon's recent statement about how they have recently been lagging in innovation, but even in the rest of the statement, Fujio Mitarai said that Canon's revenue model would be 30% cameras. Of the camera companies, Canon is the one that's really diversifying, while others are in an all or nothing with camera equipment.


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idkdc
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Mar 02, 2018 23:34 |  #4

davesrose wrote in post #18576298 (external link)
I always find these articles a bit misleading with cherry picked statistics....but I do find it interesting that it says: "A latecomer to the mirrorless market, Canon released its first model in 2012 under the EOS M brand. The company held 23% of the domestic market for these cameras in 2017, ranking second behind Olympus. It aims for the top spot with the new offering." Also, when you hover over the hotspots for Canon, Olympus, and Sony, you can see how much larger Canon's capitol is. So while Sony FF MILC might be getting more market shares with professionals, looks like Canon has already made advances in attracting a market for consumer mirrorless cameras. This statistic seems to indicate that there actually are a population of folks still buying dedicated cameras (apart from photo enthusiasts going from DLSRs to Sony or Fuji mirrorless). Canon does seem to be targeting a particular demographic, in which the M50 could do well. For it's price point, it doesn't look like a bad camera.

I know people have been trying to read into Canon's recent statement about how they have recently been lagging in innovation, but even in the rest of the statement, Fujio Mitarai said that Canon's revenue model would be 30% cameras. Of the camera companies, Canon is the one that's really diversifying, while others are in an all or nothing with camera equipment.

I thought Ricoh and Fujifilm are diversified as well. Nikon's the only eggs-in-one-basket. I think their lithographic business is failing (vaguely remember articles on this), which makes matters worse. Canon's been laughing at us GAS-forum-perusers to the bank though with their security and medical acquisitions.


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davesrose
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Mar 02, 2018 23:53 as a reply to  @ idkdc's post |  #5

For quite awhile, there's been doom and gloom about Sony Corporation as well. They were the leader in CRT TVs with Trinitron: but have lost out to new OLED technologies with Samsung (largest panel manufacturer), and LG. They were leaders in the audio community with Walkmans, Discmans, audiophile CD players, and SACD players. Now there's just a limited few who buy their current Walkman (hi res audio players). Last year there was talk about Sony having to sell their Hollywood studios and just focusing on core imaging. There's still some murmurings this year about whether they'll sell Columbia Pictures.

I can't afford anymore GAS at this moment, but it does certainly look like Sony is a leader with sensor design. Nikon also has done well with the D850 sensor.


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Mar 03, 2018 00:07 |  #6

davesrose wrote in post #18576307 (external link)
For quite awhile, there's been doom and gloom about Sony Corporation as well. They were the leader in CRT TVs with Trinitron: but have lost out to new OLED technologies with Samsung (largest panel manufacturer), and LG. They were leaders in the audio community with Walkmans, Discmans, audiophile CD players, and SACD players. Now there's just a limited few who buy their current Walkman (hi res audio players). Last year there was talk about Sony having to sell their Hollywood studios and just focusing on core imaging. There's still some murmurings this year about whether they'll sell Columbia Pictures.

I can't afford anymore GAS at this moment, but it does certainly look like Sony is a leader with sensor design. Nikon also has done well with the D850 sensor.

I thought the D850 was supposedly from Israeli Towerjazz? I still can't get my hands on a D850 due to sensor supply issues, but my wallet has been better for it.

I haven't heard about Columbia Pictures. That would be a crown jewel for auction, for sure. Samsung QLED and LG OLED have been pretty captivating. Too bad Sony went all in on Plasma. I heard their gaming division still makes them some money though. Any offbeat divesting like Canon?


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davesrose
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Mar 03, 2018 00:52 as a reply to  @ idkdc's post |  #7

The press was that the D850 wasn't a Sony sensor and was designed by Nikon (even if contracted to be fabricated by someone else).

Hey, plasma TVs were great for flat panel HDTVs: they had better color contrast compared to LED. Panasonic was a leader in plasma TVs, and I did shed some tears when they stopped manufacturing them:-) I still have a 14 year old Panasonic plasma HDTV that still has great color range (much better then a 32" Samsung LED I have). But new HDR 4k OLEDs are a sight to behold! By themselves, they have a more 3D quality by not just extra resolution, but a perceived dynamic range. Maybe Sony still makes money with Playstation. I see that right now current XBox's hold an advantage of supporting 4K. It was Playstation 2 that was the highest selling console. I think gaming also is a hard market since it's not dominated by consoles: there's also a swing to computer and smart phone gaming.


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JeffreyG
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Mar 03, 2018 07:27 |  #8

I'm not so much for trying to read the tea leaves for revenue, business sectors, all that. I don't care about Canon's copier business or Sony's movie studios. I just want to read statements on product strategy and see if Canon is likely to make the camera I want or not.

So, ignoring all that other stuff, this is what I see when I parse this marketing chat.

Canon is doing the usual Canon thing in the enthusiast and pro arena where they carefully position all products to hit different segments. Features are doled out to avoid one Canon competing too much with another Canon. The assumption always seems to be that consumers only really pick and choose between different Canons. They are assumed to never be thinking about getting an A7III vs. a 6D2. To me this article confirms that Canon thinks a Canon version of FF MILC will just cannibalize sales from 6D/5D/1D lines.

Over time, I guess you could say this strategy had some merit. I think Canon understands that the market that is just above cell phone users shops pretty hard on published features and price point. This is the guy (or Mom, in the case of Canon marketing speak) who stands in Costco reading the specs off the box and sweating a $50 difference from Nikon to Canon. The 4000D was made for this market.

But above this Costco shopper (where Canon knows what they compete on and why) they know they have their enthusiasts and professionals trapped by the cost of changing systems.

What's kind of breaking this open for me Sony's ability to adapt lenses. I can run two systems for a year and see how I like Sony and if anything interesting comes from Canon. But by 2019, if I like the Sony, I'll sell off all of my Canon lenses, and you can be sure I'm not likely to look back after that.

I'm not sure if Canon understands the threat of the <$2000 A73 and adaptability.


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Mar 03, 2018 07:59 |  #9

I think your dreaming to think that Canon's first FF Mirrorless is going to be anywhere NEAR Sony's a73.It will be dumbed down as much as possible so you'll buy the next model.If you like the a73 that much just get it.


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Mar 03, 2018 08:51 |  #10

Market trends are clearly accelerating away from DSLR at all price points. But I don't think that most dedicated camera users look very far outside the way they shoot when making predictions about changes to the market. I have zero reason to either switch or shoot two systems, even if Canon came out with a really kick ass native EF mount FF mirrorless system, I would not feel the need to move quickly. However, even if it is pretty meaningless to me, I see how the eye focus feature is a huge selling point to those that take pictures of faces all day.

Canon is not ignoring the trends. I don't think they have to rush to get a FF mirrorless in 2018, but I do think it should be out, or announced, in the next 12 months.

I think think they are going to have to position it against the 5DIV, at least very close. Then two years from now either a 5DV will hit the streets, or they will move to another naming system to help define the two higher end product lines.


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Mar 03, 2018 08:56 |  #11

PNPhotography wrote in post #18576456 (external link)
I think your dreaming to think that Canon's first FF Mirrorless is going to be anywhere NEAR Sony's a73.It will be dumbed down as much as possible so you'll buy the next model.If you like the a73 that much just get it.

I am what is said above. Look at the E-50. This is the best they could do in 2018.

1. Has eye AF but you can't use eye AF in AF-C mode.
2. 4k video but no PDAF in it?
3. Pretty high fps even better than 80d but you fill the buffer in 1 seconds (dpreview)
4. crop of a crop in video so 22mm becomes 56mm FOV wise.


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JeffreyG
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Mar 03, 2018 09:02 |  #12

Left Handed Brisket wrote in post #18576502 (external link)
Market trends are clearly accelerating away from DSLR at all price points. But I don't think that most dedicated camera users look very far outside the way they shoot when making predictions about changes to the market. I have zero reason to either switch or shoot two systems, even if Canon came out with a really kick ass native EF mount FF mirrorless system, I would not feel the need to move quickly. However, even if it is pretty meaningless to me, I see how the eye focus feature is a huge selling point to those that take pictures of faces all day.

For sure, different photographers / subjects / genres have different needs. But I do find the MILC's offer a lot of benefits that go far beyond just eye-AF. Just to name a few that I see (and which Canon could offer, if they cared to):
1) Live histogram / exposure in viewfinder.
2) Ability to see and compose in near dark.
3) Adapting all kinds of legacy MF lenses, and tools in the EVF that actually allow me to use them accurately with ease.

That doesn't mean SLRs have no future, but I think the applications where the OVF is better are somewhat limited. Long term, I see the MILCs growing moreso than SLRs.

Canon is not ignoring the trends. I don't think they have to rush to get a FF mirrorless in 2018, but I do think it should be out, or announced, in the next 12 months.

This would be a totally reasonable statement four years ago. In 2014, I would agree that Canon could take a year or so, and then come after Sony and Fuji.

But it's 2018, and Sony has had time to refine their 35mm format MILCs through three generations and they are really getting it put together now. A lot of the early clunkiness is fading, their cameras are starting to work like an experienced enthusiast photographer would expect.

I think think they are going to have to position it against the 5DIV, at least very close. Then two years from now either a 5DV will hit the streets, or they will move to another naming system to help define the two higher end product lines.

That would be great. But what I'm seeing (and what I linked in the article) suggests to me that Canon still actually has no plans to release a MILC in the lineup that would fit in someplace around the level of the 5D and 6D lines. I think they want to continue to offer something a lot closer to a mirrorless Rebel.

To me it's a miss, and they are going to lose my business by 2019 (I know....tiny violins ;-)a ). Who knows how representative boards like POTN, FM, and DPreview are, but I know I'm not an outlier here.


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Mar 03, 2018 09:40 |  #13

Yet, they are still only second to Oly in Japan.

I'm sure it is frustrating to some that Canon seems only to be barely keeping up with the competition. But the fact is, it's apparently working for them.

Fwiw, the types of users that frequent forums are not typical users. Are you on Facebook? Have you joined any of those photography groups? It's eye opening.


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Mar 03, 2018 11:13 as a reply to  @ Left Handed Brisket's post |  #14

Fwiw, the types of users that frequent forums are not typical users. Are you on Facebook? Have you joined any of those photography groups? It's eye opening.

I 100% agree with this. It's amazing talking to other people about their perception about the camera market. I talked with this one woman who was shooting a Nikon. She asked what I was using and I told her a Canon 5DS, and she was like, "Oh, a Canon! That must be really good! I only have a Nikon..." I tried to explain to her that most newer Nikon's hold sensor advantages over most Canons, but it fell on deaf ears. That's the power of brand recognition.

It does make you wonder though...are our perceptions really off the mark? Based on most forums, you'd think that most Canon users have switched to either Sony or Fuji and that's clearly not the case. How does Canon sell more mirrorless than Sony? It's pretty crazy when you think about it.

Should Canon decide to make a mirrorless FF camera, I'd expect it to be highly criticized yet sell very well. I also don't believe that Canon doesn't innovate...they just aren't innovating in the way that most enthusiasts want. For instance, look at their new line of TSE macro lens...I think that's pretty innovative. Useful for most people? No, but definitely innovative.




  
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Mar 03, 2018 11:26 as a reply to  @ djh5331's post |  #15

Well said.

And regarding tilt shift, I have been able to get by renting TS a couple of times, but that is much more important to me than what mirrorless offers and the 3 things jeffG posted ... fact that I could adapt a canon TS to Sony notwithstanding.

I would really, really like a couple of those TS lenses in my bag.


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It looks like the Canon FF MILC is a ways off yet.
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