Canon has produced 140 million EF lenses

On December 19, 2018, Canon reached a new production milestone of 140 million EF lenses*, reinforcing its position as the world's highest-volume manufacturer of interchangeable lenses. True to the development concept of the EOS Series established in 1987.

*Including EF-S, EF-M, RF lenses and EF Cinema lenses

Source: https://global.canon/e​n/news/2019/20190214.h​tml

Seeming that milestone was 57 days ago it is safe to assume that the 140 million EF lenses could solely be attributed to lenses related to the EF mount rather than RF lenses.

I doubt there will be 150 million EF lenses though.... RIP EF mount.

Croasdail wrote in post #18810861
I doubt there will be 150 million EF lenses though.... RIP EF mount.

I wouldn’t discount it just yet. They could hit that figure by 2030

they JUST released/updated 2 big white expensive ones

EF may not get many new models and releases and all the attention that RF is now getting, but EF isn't going away anytime soon!

I agree they aren't going anywhere - I've been looking to snap up a few more as the used prices continue to fall. There just isn't going to be much investment in them going forward.

Canon still manufactured FD lenses for over 5 more years after the introduction of the EOS system. That EF lenses can be compatible to the R system, and there are still a number of folks still using DSLR, Canon will still be producing EF lenses for a few more years. Even if they don’t decide to introduce new lenses in 2020, they’re still not going to cease production of current lines overnight.

davesrose wrote in post #18811589
Canon still manufactured FD lenses for over 5 more years after the introduction of the EOS system. That EF lenses can be compatible to the R system, and there are still a number of folks still using DSLR, Canon will still be producing EF lenses for a few more years. Even if they don’t decide to introduce new lenses in 2020, they’re still not going to cease production of current lines overnight.

Precisely.

My educated guess is based on the time Canon introduced the EF system in 1987, end of the production of FD lenses in 1995 and end of factory support of the "New F-1" FD body by 2004.

Canon & Nikon may stop further manufacturing of current EF or F mount camera bodies, lenses or accessories in 7 years time by the year 2026. It 7may be sooner or later based on demand. And 2026 would coincide with the 2024 Summer Olympics & 2026 Winter Olympics.

By then this would be when the RF & Z full frame mirrorless system will make up more than 80% of their sales.

Factory support should cease ~10 years later in 2036? Would anyone reading this on FM be physically mobile enough to take photos with their quarter century old camera?

I am fairly certain that both companies have ceased any further development for new EF or F mount camera bodies, lenses or accessories as doing otherwise would only produce new products that will get cannibalized by their full frame mirrorless systems.

On a side note I am guessing that ~660,000 Canon 1DX2 and Nikon D5 bodies were sold in 2018. This is based on the CIPA 2018 shipping numbers for DSLRs numbering in ~6.6 million. I remember Canon mentioning that the 1D bodies made up 1% of all their DSLR body sales. Chances are it could be more as camera brands like Pentax and Panasonic are now selling full frame mirroless cameras which to me means that cropped sensor ILCs are also declining in sales. Fuji and Pentax are now selling medium format cameras.

On December 19, 2018 Canon has produced 140 million EF lenses.

With that milestone I am guessing Canon has produced ~95 million EOS bodies by now. This is based Canon making 90 million EOS bodies on September 20, 2017 and 80 million EOS bodies on November 10, 2015.

I have to admit, I am still unsure that mirrorless necessarily replaces DSLR? Maybe I'm being naive.

I mean, I can see the advantages, but I'm just not convinced we HAVE to assume that DSLR is going to die. I don't see this as obvious as film vs. digital, or manual focus vs. auto focus.

(by the way, we can still buy manual focus film cameras today.. though certainly not much of a market!!!)

Certainly, when SLRs were very popular, a number of brands continued to make rangefinder camera. There was a niche in which rangefinder was better, while there was a niche where SLR was better. So I see no fundamental reason that mirrorless would cause all usage of dSLR to vaporize; there will be many people who either find the dSLR is still advantageous over the mirrorless, if only to avoid having the economic issue of selling all their EF stuff at a fraction of the original cost in order to get the same lenses in new more expensive R-mount stuff!

Certainly, the lower power consumption makes it better to take a dSLR on expeditions to the Himalayas because you squeeze out more shots per mA of stored power, so fewer batteries to carry with you for the same number of total shots.

Here is the one caveat to all that. In the past, it was a growing marketplace. Per Canon's own numbers, we are in far different times. Their economics will be a lot different now. They can't keep producing 4 camera lens lines, and cut the cost nor reduce the supply chain needed. I think you will see this time a much quick transition. No, they aren't going to pull them from the market for a while, but I don't see them producing the big whites for 10 years. They are high margin, but low volume lenses. I doubt you will see much if any development of the ES-F lenses... continued production... but little to no R & D.

I like some of the glass Canon is looking at releasing. Kind of fun to see like the new 70-200..... love the size. But hate the prices of everything. All lenses so far are 2 grand or more. It's actually a fun time with all this new stuff rolling out. Whether you like Sony or not, you have to like that they have forced Canon and Nikon to get off their duffs. It was getting a bit boring.

CyberDyneSystems wrote in post #18811772
I have to admit, I am still unsure that mirrorless necessarily replaces DSLR? Maybe I'm being naive.

I mean, I can see the advantages, but I'm just not convinced we HAVE to assume that DSLR is going to die. I don't see this as obvious as film vs. digital, or manual focus vs. auto focus.

(by the way, we can still buy manual focus film cameras today.. though certainly not much of a market!!!)

There are a few drivers here... 1) DSLRs have gotten into a rut, with little reason to upgrade. Mirrorless whether merited or not has changed that. 2) Manual focus - on a DSLR just isn't a compelling way to shoot. Add things like eye focus, zebra strips, focus peaking, it really does change how you shoot. With my Canon rig, I still shoot 99.8 percent of the time autofocus. With my Sony gear, that has changed dramatically. Maybe 50/50 now. Remember, autofocus was introduced to solve a problem. These new tools solve that same problem, but put the photographer back in change. I recently did some astrophotography - using focus peaking I was clearly able to see when the stars were in focus. With a viewfinder, I don't get that same focus confirmation - whats in, whats not 3) Manufacturing cost... the mirror box.... making one that is reliable for 300,000 actuations.... not cheap. Mirrorless removes those moving parts all together. Now you have the curtain, and focus mechanism, the later being in the lens. It dramatically simplifies the engineering and build process. So there is incentive to move to cameras that are simpler to design and build.

Manual transmissions are still available.... but not on a lot of platforms. But that is because the driving experience is completely different. From a photography standpoint, you really don't gain much. And with the market shrinking, I think number three will be a huge driver.

Just my two cents.

CyberDyneSystems wrote in post #18811772
I have to admit, I am still unsure that mirrorless necessarily replaces DSLR? Maybe I'm being naive.

I mean, I can see the advantages, but I'm just not convinced we HAVE to assume that DSLR is going to die. I don't see this as obvious as film vs. digital, or manual focus vs. auto focus.

(by the way, we can still buy manual focus film cameras today.. though certainly not much of a market!!!)

I have to agree right now with this thought process

I dont have a reason to update to a mirrorless R body with canon right now. Sony is clearly a superior body to the EOS R- sorry to burst all the R owners Bubbles

Canon is going to produce outstanding optics for the R mount but the current R body is not on par to the 5D4 and 1Dx2. Anyone that thinks it is --- is wishful thinking on their part. Like you I see some advantages. But I have used the EOS R now a couple of times and as much as I am intrigued by the new technology, as I compare to a 5D4...the 5D4 is clearly a better camera.

I think what will happen is that Canon will introduce a better R mount camera aimed at pros and advanced photographers this year. Then I think what will happen next is a gradual move by the pro and advanced amateur markets to R mount bodies and lens. The thing that will save canons but is the adapter and the seamless transition for existing customers with tons of EF lens. It allows you to buy new glass on a as the need arises and the advantages of Mirrorless can still be had with EF glass and that adapter---especially if the new bodies have IBIS ( frankly I think this is what Canon is waiting on to perfect).

I dont have a big need to rush out and buy until the new R body makes it worth a jump. Right now, as a 1Dx2 and 5D4 owner and other than the appeal of the new optics, I dont have a need to spend $$$ for the R. I think canon is in a tough spot. Current top bodies like the 1Dx2 and 5D4 are outstanding and sensor performance is on par to anything on the mirrorless markets right now

For sensor performance- the ceiling has been reached---- 25000 ISO is horrendous light. No sensor on the planet is going to allow you to override poor quality light and the drawbacks that come from working in that type of lighting. Current DSLR's handle this as well as the very best mirrorless sensors on the markets.....so other than things like eye focus, lens calibration issues, and things of this nature...whats the point to switch to mirrorless......its not going to be sensor performance......its going to be about optics.....and if you have great EF lens that do the job.....this market can sit back and access and work their way into it at a much less urgent pace

The gear junkies are going to jump. I see a much less urgent desire by pros and advanced amateurs

Thats my thoughts right now

Some on this thread needs to get closer to real market and consumers. Not everyone is jumping from one system to another just because.

Not every one could afford even RP and most of R mount lenses are out of price range for many.
Canon might be less expensive for FF with RP, but R lenses are awfull in price range, most.
RP with not expensive EF lens makes sense for many. Like 40 pancake, 50 usm.

And many are still buying Rebels at Costco and else.

I'm making an assumption here, but there must have been a sizeable uptick in EF sales and production as full-frame bodies started to fall into a range where average consumers could purchase.

I also believe that consumer culture will likely support the demand for professionals who shoot with DSLRs - the bigger bodies lending to the appearance of "professionalism." This will help sustain DSLRs for another decade, at least.