Canon to cease EF Lens development indefinitely?

I wouldn’t call 14% drop in interchangeable lens mirrorless sales over a year as holding its own. For healthy growth, you need positive numbers in sales. Granted DSLR sales dropped 37% as well, but profits with recognized camera brands seem to be a juggling act with focused market demographics for cameras and diversity with other industries.

davesrose wrote in post #18989282
I wouldn’t call 14% drop in interchangeable lens mirrorless sales over a year as holding its own. For healthy growth, you need positive numbers in sales. Granted DSLR sales dropped 37% as well, but profits with recognized camera brands seem to be a juggling act with focused market demographics for cameras and diversity with other industries.

Actually, looking at CIPA data, 35mm or larger format dropped 14%. Lenses smaller than 35mm fell 30%. The total interchangeable lens market is down 25%. As you said, for a healthy market, you minimally want numbers staying the same but growth would be much better.

So no matter what source you look at, all interchangeable lens cameras are down (mirrorless or DSLR). The likely winners for staying a camera brand are like Leica, which provides cell phone cameras for Huawei.

davesrose wrote in post #18989293
So no matter what source you look at, all interchangeable lens cameras are down (mirrorless or DSLR). The likely winners for staying a camera brand are like Leica, which provides cell phone cameras for Huawei.

I think mirrorless cameras themselves are flat. dSLR camera sales are way down. CIPA does not break out lenses by mount, just 35mm or larger and smaller than 35mm. In either case, all lens sales are way down. I think Canon is betting the farm on mirrorless cameras as dSLR cameras and lenses are plummeting.

Historically the mass of cameras have been to fairly casual photographers and that market has definitely swung to cell phones, decimating the traditional small-sensor point and shoot - the 1" sensor P&S are holding some ground but they also shoot high definition video, so that has spread the load. Canon has dominated the low end DSLR market pretty much since the inception of the Rebel or 300D models.

From my own research some of that market is swinging to the very small form factor 1" group, and some has gone to high-end cell phones. That leaves us with enthusiast and professional-level purchasers. I think both groups are holding on to their higher-end DSLRs and lenses, but they will not be turning their kit over as quickly as the lower end market - the equipment is better made and more expensive. However mirrorless MILCs are now whittling that population down and I would expect as newbies come into those two groups they will generally take to MILCs. Older folks like me will likely keep their DSLRs as long as they can carry them. Yet I think with the vast number of DSLRs and lenses on the market a generation of users will use these until they can afford the latest tech. Of course there will always be the enthusiasts, like those who shoot 8x10 glass plates or 35mm film!

Right now, professional sports and action photographers are still using DSLRs and those big lenses, and will do so until a practical (and economically viable) selection of MILC bodies and lenses come to market. Hence the release of the EOS 1DX III and the forthcoming Nikon D5.

Canon has lenses made for television, for cinema and for photography.
If they will hold on some of it, not the end of the world.
Personally I hardly see any reason for new DSLR lenses. As long as they are available as new

Tom Reichner wrote in post #18989276
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I fully agree with you, but .....

You have said before that the new RF lenses are SO MUCH better than their EF equivalents. . Do you believe this will be the case when they come out with RF supertelephotos like a 500 f4, 600 f4, and 800 f5.6? . Or do you think that there won't be quite the same massive improvements over the current EF versions that there are with the shorter, more conventional lenses?

I mean, it seems odd that you would go on so much about how much better the RF lenses are, but then say you have no interest in RF when it comes to supertelephoto lenses.

I do not mean to challenge or contest your thoughts, but I do seek to have a more full understanding about what your thoughts are concerning these differences, and to see how each thing you say is consistent with each of the other things you have said.

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I fully believe the RF super teles will be the best lens available on the market. I think they will produce imagery not seen and we are all going to drool over the results........I also believe they will be so expensive that I could never considering purchasing one. I predict that if a new 500 F4 is currently going for 8999.00......THE RF 500 F/4 will be 11,999.00..........I just cant lay out that kind of ash

umphotography wrote in post #18989877
I fully believe the RF super teles will be the best lens available on the market. I think they will produce imagery not seen and we are all going to drool over the results........I also believe they will be so expensive that I could never considering purchasing one. I predict that if a new 500 F4 is currently going for 8999.00......THE RF 500 F/4 will be 11,999.00..........I just cant lay out that kind of ash

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Yeah, but in 12 years or so, some of those $11.999.00 lenses will be available on the used market for, like, $6000 or thereabouts. . And we will probably still be alive and still shooting wildlife, so it's not like we won't ever be owning or using them; we just need to wait a while until the prices come down.

Patience, my friend ..... patience. . The average human life spans many product cycles, so what is not affordable to us today will eventually be within our reach.

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Tom Reichner wrote in post #18989885
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Yeah, but in 12 years or so, some of those $11.999.00 lenses will be available on the used market for, like, $6000 or thereabouts. . And we will probably still be alive and still shooting wildlife, so it's not like we won't ever be owning or using them; we just need to wait a while until the prices come down.

Patience, my friend ..... patience. . The average human life spans many product cycles, so what is not affordable to us today will eventually be within our reach.

.

But consider you will be mostly in post retired stage by then. Our spending power may not be as strong as it is now. And that will turn the $6000 to look actually like $12000.

this is what I consider "old news"

rndman wrote in post #18990048
But consider you will be mostly in post retired stage by then. Our spending power may not be as strong as it is now. And that will turn the $6000 to look actually like $12000.

There is a good chance I will be in the post alive stage in 12 years.

some of us might be dead by then. so why worry about it?

the pie is shrinking and someone is in trouble and it's not Canon or Sony

According to Canon Rumors on 23.1.20:
"it appears Canon is continuing the development of EF telephoto lenses"

https://www.canonrumor​s.com …ef-supertelephoto-lenses/

Njal wrote in post #18998231
According to Canon Rumors on 23.1.20:
"it appears Canon is continuing the development of EF telephoto lenses"

https://www.canonrumor​s.com …ef-supertelephoto-lenses/

Canon Rumors are often not far off. To be fair, Canon called a halt for this year unless there is demand. This makes total sense. They have finite resources and they need to get glass out on the market for their EOS R bodies (existing and new). As I understand it there is rumor that they will be releasing several new R series bodies this year and likely they will be towards the higher end of the market - they have kept their powder dry in that area. Thus they need more spread and depth in their RF offerings.

It also makes sense that they will not abandon the EF mount. I shudder to think how many legacy EOS bodies are out there in the hands of users who, like myself, are not likely to change to the R platform but will welcome improved performance in optics, especially among wildlife and sport photographers that the rumored lenses will support. The release of the 1DxIII has planted a stake firmly that they are supporting those markets. I think they are holding the line right now for EF lenses, but I would be surprised if they abandoned this huge market indefinitely.