The future of crop sensor canon cameras? (7D line and beyond)

So I've been out of the camera buying loop for a while and I've not kept up with all the release information. I have picked up that the 7D line has ended with no 7DMIII being released. Canon has released the 90D, however that appears to be pretty much just the xxD line advancing and misses some of the rugged features that the 7D line had.


So are there any rumours/hints/news on what might or is replacing the 7D line? Is canon shifting to mirrorless systems; is it a case that if you want to go higher than the xxD you have to start jumping all the way up to the 1D line? Or is it that the performance in AF and FPS has become good enough that its better to jump to the 5D line of cameras and simply get used to using a longer lens/cropping? Noting that both the 1D and 5D lines (at their newest end) are quite considerably more in cost than the 7D line aimed at budget wise.

No one really knows for certain, probably not even Canon! it is all a bunch of guessing.

For Canon, it is probably based upon a set of criteria, which Canon has not even set up rules of decision making...when the time comes, something will tell them the time has arrived!

We know that reflex mirrored dSLR launch and lens launch activity is largely paused...they told us so -- because Canon resources are focused on the mirrorless business, and it makes no sense to (double) staff up for both product lines in an overall shrinking market! Yes, Canon launched a new 1DXIII, but apart from some new better features, it is the same old sensor of the 1DXII, so obviously this was a way for Canon to show signs of activity in the dSLR family, without a ton of effort and resources!

We know that there are millions of dSLR users out there, so Canon can continue to sell EF lenses. We know the R can take the EF lenses with an adapter, so until R mount is fleshed out the R users will buy EF lenses, too, when R mount has no equivalent lens. But it is a total guess about whether Canon will ever come out with 7DIII or 5DV.

We do know that there is an inherent cost advantage for smaller (APS-C) sensors, regardless of dSLR vs. mirrorless. So if Canon wants to maximize unit sales of mirrorless, there is an inherent advantage for the consumer to pay less for an APS-C mirrorless body, and then spend less on shorter FL lenses than they would have to buy for FF mirrorless. It makes sense to offer APS-C mirrorless. But some other factors may (or may not) cause Canon to NOT consider ever launching one. In a shrinking market, maybe the economies of scale (well known to business school MBAs) indicate that it is UNWISE to have a parallel APS-C mirrorless.

Back early last year there was rumoring that there was going to be a 7DIII replacement and we were suppose to see it some time in July of 2019. Clearly that did not happen. When the 90D was released there some some speculation that it replaced both the 80D and the 7DII. Whatever the case, the rumor sites are exceptionally quiet about any replacement to the 7DII other than we might see something in late 2020 or 2021 about a mirrorless version of the 7D, but who knows. It's all just rumors right now.

my guess

Predictions:

1. An APS-C mirrorless will be launched
   
2. An APS-C mirrorless will not be launched
   
3. A 5DV FF dSLR will be launched
   
4. A 5DV FF dSLR will not be launched
   
5. A 7DIII dSLR will be launched
   
6. A 7DIII dSLR will not be launched
   
7. 1, 3, and 5 will come true
   
8. 1, 4, and 6 will come true
   
9. 2, 3, and 5 will come true
   
10. 2, 4, and 6 will come true
    

Makes me feel better that my googling which didn't result in any firm rumour or answer is being validated!

I have to say I was surprised how long canon left the 7DMII out in the wild without an update; especially as I always felt that line was an ideal price VS features point for the crop sensor without having to invest huge amounts into 1D line bodies. Personally I hope we get a crop sensor of a similar tier and price point. My impression is that mirrorless is nice, but it doesn't really offer huge bonuses over a mirror assembly - esp in terms of battery life and high speed motion (heck I suspect until DSLR sensors read the whole sensor at once and not in lines, we'll never lose things like bendy helicopter blades)

Plus I can't see Canon abandoning the EOS line of lenses - I get them slowing development, esp when a lot of the line are already at the top of their game for their price point and where updates are marginal in most updates. I can see them jumping on a second line that offers them increased return on investment by nature of it not having any other lenses barring those used with adaptors.

Overread wrote in post #19024302
Plus I can't see Canon abandoning the EOS line of lenses - I get them slowing development, esp when a lot of the line are already at the top of their game for their price point and where updates are marginal in most updates. I can see them jumping on a second line that offers them increased return on investment by nature of it not having any other lenses barring those used with adaptors.

Your mention of increased return on investment...I just got curious:

• the EF 70-200mm L IS from B&H is $1799
  
• the RF 70-200mm L IS from B&H is $2699
  
  
• the EF 16-35mm L IS from B&H is $1899
  
• the RF 15-35mm L IS from B&H is $2299
  
  
• the EF 24-70mm L IS from B&H is $1599
  
• the RF 24-70mm L IS from B&H is $2299
  
  
• Canon EF 50mm f/1.2L from B&H is $1299
  
• Canon RF 50mm f/1.2L from B&H is $2299
  

Darn those prices are kind of insane - especially when you consider that the lenses are supposed to be smaller, lighter and have less expensive glass in them

Then again I've seen it before where companies shift to a new product line purely to increase the prices, whilst abandoning an eariler product line. Even if there's little to no real advantage in the new line the fact that its new lets them raise the price with less backlash than if they just raised all their base prices. OF course the stickler here is that canon hasn't shut down EF production. So both lines are currently valid.

It seems with mirrorless you get more money for the novelty of a mirrorless camera - which seems to only really hold advantages in being a bit smaller and lighter. Especially since the vast majority of the tech outside of the viewfinder assembly is going t obe the same tech used for mirrorless or DSLR - erg sensors, noise processing, processors e tc...

I think most likely there will not be a 7DIII. Nobody predicted the 90D though and lot's of people predicted there would be nothing similar released. The 90D has a great sensor despite many so called experts predicting a 32MP crop sensor would be noisy. I would really like 7DIII based on 90D sensor.
I think Nikon D500 is the top crop DSLR for tough camera with good AF.
Go on Canon, leave your mark with the best of the croppers. Please.....

Overread wrote in post #19024361
Then again I've seen it before where companies shift to a new product line purely to increase the prices, whilst abandoning an eariler product line. Even if there's little to no real advantage in the new line the fact that its new lets them raise the price with less backlash than if they just raised all their base prices.

.
Yes, exactly!

It's like when you've been going to a restaurant for years and then you go in one time and the menu is totally different. . The things you used to order are not on the new menu. . But everything on the menu is a couple dollars more expensive than all the things that were on the old menu that you were used to. . They wanted to jack the prices up, but were afraid that people would be upset if it cost more dollars for the same thing, so they change the things to new things, for no reason other than a pathetic attempt to raise the prices without anyone noticing. . And of course everyone notices because it is such a shallow, not-clever attempt to suck more money out of you.

I wouldn't say that this is the only reason Canon has switched mounts, but I am sure that it is a reason they have taken notice of, and plan to exploit as much as possible.


.

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19024371
.


I wouldn't say that this is the only reason Canon has switched mounts, but I am sure that it is a reason they have taken notice of, and plan to exploit as much as possible.

.

The main reason was that they saw how much business was going to Sony, and they wanted a piece of that action that was built entirely upon marketing product differentiation. 4/3 had EVF first, Sony just capitalized by marketing it and creating demand by putting some attractive new features into a camera, whose features were enabled by an always-active sensor that could electronically capture (not reliant on mechanical shutter). The 'larger' RF throat (the optical path being cleared by changing dimensions of the electrical contact circuit) was capitalizing on the need to have shorter lens barrels, as was the addition control ring.

I am happy with crop cameras, for the most part. I would like to see a 7D III if it were to have an enhance AF system and able to cleanly handle higher ISO than my current 7DII and 7D. Maybe a few more MP on the sensor for cropping if needed.

I can predict the future of crop cameras with absolute certainty: they will continue to produce excellent images in capable hands, irrespective of what new bodies emerge.

IMO at this point in time if you need an upgrade for the 7D2 then the Nikon D500 is the only game in town. I am keeping fingers crossed that Canon will come through but I'm not sure how long I can wait. If I make up my mind then can't find a D500 to buy then I've waited too long.

For me the big question is "has Canon abandoned that segment of its user base". If so then say it and I'll move on.

Rod

What year did the D500 come out? I am not a Nikon guy but isn't it a few years old now too?