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Thread started 12 Mar 2020 (Thursday) 15:31
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Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

 
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Pekka
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Mar 12, 2020 15:31 |  #1

I know this is not an easy topic, but it is important to be aware.

Just wanted to say that if you are over 60 and have some existing health problems: be careful.

Photography is a social art form, and crowds and close contacts are frequent. One should be really aware that the virus is really out there and spreads by sneeze, breath and other methods to get it airborne and to the surfaces (where it will be alive for at least few hours).

As my day job I play in the Finnish RSO as you may know. Today we got the info that all concerts to the end of May will be played without audience (stream to internet only). This and other measures Finland has taken will not prevent people from getting sick, the main point is to make it spread slower so health care system can handle it.

https://www.who.int …-detail/q-a-coronaviruses (external link)


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Wilt
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Mar 12, 2020 16:17 |  #2

I posted this in a thread on another photography forum, and thought it was valuable factual information to share (unlike some of the recent falsehoods circulating, supposed 'from a board member of Stanford')


It was thought that children/youth were less susceptible to COVID-19, resulting in more young adults booking themselves on travel bargains. From a statement by CDC:

"In fact, most confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported from China have occurred in adults. Infections in children have been reported, including in very young children. From limited information published from past Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks, infection among children was relatively uncommon....
"There have been very few reports of the clinical outcomes for children with COVID-19 to date. Limited reports from China suggest that children with confirmed COVID-19 may present with mild symptoms and though severe complications (acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock) have been reported, they appear to be uncommon."

But recent increases in pediatric patients infected with COVID-19 shows that belief to not be so convincing. A report from Shenzhen, China reveals:

"(Shenzhen) also reported a sharp increase in the proportion of infected children (2% before Jan 24 to 13% for Jan 25 to Feb 5; P < 0.001), meaning that increased exposure for children and familial transmission could contribute substantially to the epidemic."

We know know the period of time that passes from exposure to onset of symptoms:

"Of 56 clusters of single co-exposure cases (in Shenzhen), the mean interval of symptom onset between the primary and second case-patient in a cluster was 3.1 days. The mean interval of symptom onset between the primary and last case-patient within a cluster was 3.6 days.
After strict control measures were implemented, the researchers observed a shortened span from illness onset to hospital visits (median days declined from 3 to 1; P < 0.001).

Unfortunately, experiences of clinicians in Guangzhou, China, show that the testing for COVID-19 is fraught with error...

"(Doctors) commented on the high false-negative rate in the oropharyngeal swabs used to diagnose and confirm COVID-19 infection and called for an alternative technique to be developed as soon as possible."

We also know, from the recent cruise ship outbreak, that 17% of those tested had Positive result, but half of these positive-tested people had NO symptoms

In one sample group, about 14-19% of cases were severe enough (severe/critical) to need mechanical ventilation assistance. It is this fraction of cases which has apparently resulted, in Italy, in a reported 'run' on ventilators, leading to triage whereby some patients go without needed ventilation!

My wife is good friends with a lady who is currently in Italy, who knows the reality behind rationing of ventilators in her city.


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Mar 12, 2020 19:12 |  #3

Its getting hard to separate the wheat from the chaff these days. So many internet experts out there.
Thanks for the info.


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Jeff ­ USN ­ Photog ­ 72-76
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Mar 12, 2020 19:31 |  #4

at age 66 I am staying away from people but not photography. I have been doing bird photography at local ponds and either I don't see anyone or a jogger or walker will amble by about 10 feet away, it is almost like being quarantined.
Living in SE Mass there are several grocery stores that deliver and my sons have offered to go shopping for me and my wife.

The odds of the regular flu are higher - 18,000 dead this season already but I wonder how many people who think they have the flu go to get tested?

I know if I have the flu I just hunker down and suffer and I think most people do.


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Spencerphoto
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Mar 12, 2020 19:49 |  #5
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Having groceries delivered is a good idea, but be aware that reports are now saying that the virus can survive ca. five days on hard surfaces.


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Mar 12, 2020 21:41 |  #6

The Photography Show 2020 a 4 day event at the Birmingham NEC has been cancelled next week. It's one of the biggest Photography events in Europe that attracts 10's of thousands.

https://www.iambirming​ham.co.uk …lobal-coronavirus-threat/ (external link)




  
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Tom ­ Reichner
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Post edited over 1 year ago by Tom Reichner.
     
Mar 12, 2020 22:32 |  #7

.
I like to assess things accurately, so that my thoughts and feelings about things are based on actual data, and not on hype or excitement or fear of the unknown.

As of this evening, there have been 1,638 confirmed cases of this particular coronavirus, COVID-19, in the United States. . There are 327.2 million people living in the United States, so that means that so far, one out of every 199,755 people in the United States has tested positive for the virus.

The virus has caused 41 fatalities in the U.S., meaning that roughly one out of every 8 million people have died of the virus. . Yes, one out of every 8 million.

In the U.S., the common flu is still KILLING more people every single day than this new coronavirus is killing. . The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that between 12,000 and 61,000 people die of the common flu each year. . At least 12,000 and as many as 30,000 have died from the common flu in the U.S. over the last 6 months.

An estimated 606,880 people died of cancer in the U.S. over the past year.

Over the past month in the U.S., there have been approximately:

41 deaths by COVID-19

4,000 deaths by the common flu

50,570 deaths by cancer

Let's keep this coronavirus in perspective, and make sure that the way we react to it is based on actual data, and not on any hype or fear that comes from the fact that we don't know as much about it as we do about the other diseases. . Actions should be based on what something actually is, and what its effects are, statistically, and not based on the fear of what it might become.


.


"Your" and "you're" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"They're", "their", and "there" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one.
"Fare" and "fair" are different words with completely different meanings - please use the correct one. The proper expression is "moot point", NOT "mute point".

  
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FarmerTed1971
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Post edited over 1 year ago by FarmerTed1971.
     
Mar 12, 2020 22:44 |  #8

4.3% mortality rate. This thing is real. Don't panic, but don't take it lightly either.

And Tom, your . is in the wrong place. It's 327.2 million here stateside.

41 out of 1,638 is pretty damned bad... and actually way worse than the flu.


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Mar 12, 2020 22:45 |  #9

Thanks Pekka, I think it pays to be vigilant and cautious when it comes to unknowns like COVID-19.
My thoughts to all of POTN and anyone who might be affected by this.

Best,


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gjl711
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Mar 12, 2020 22:53 |  #10

Tom Reichner wrote in post #19025668 (external link)
.
I like to assess things accurately, so that my thoughts and feelings about things are based on actual data, and not on hype or excitement or fear of the unknown.

As of this evening, there have been 1,638 confirmed cases of this particular coronavirus, COVID-19, in the United States. . There are 3.272 million people living in the United States, so that means that so far, one out of every 199,755 people in the United States has tested positive for the virus.

The virus has caused 41 fatalities in the U.S., meaning that roughly one out of every 8 million people have died of the virus. . Yes, one out of every 8 million.

In the U.S., the common flu is still KILLING more people every single day than this new coronavirus is killing. . The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that between 12,000 and 61,000 people die of the common flu each year. . At least 12,000 and as many as 30,000 have died from the common flu in the U.S. over the last 6 months.

An estimated 606,880 people died of cancer in the U.S. over the past year.

Over the past month in the U.S., there have been approximately:

41 deaths by COVID-19

4,000 deaths by the common flu

50,570 deaths by cancer

Let's keep this coronavirus in perspective, and make sure that the way we react to it is based on actual data, and not on any hype or fear that comes from the fact that we don't know as much about it as we do about the other diseases. . Actions should be based on what something actually is, and what its effects are, statistically, and not based on the fear of what it might become.


.

Unfortunately this only works if you have accurate and complete data. Testing is now just starting to ramp up and a lot of things remain unclear. Your assessment would work if we were at a steady state or declining but I suspect that this has just begun. Hopefully all of the cancellations and such will slow the spread. Just looking at the data we do have, in 9 days we went from 157 cases to 1663.


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Wilt
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Post edited over 1 year ago by Wilt. (7 edits in all)
     
Mar 12, 2020 23:24 as a reply to  @ Tom Reichner's post |  #11

Tom, I do not dispute any of the statistics you raised. But they need to also be accompanied by a bit of additional points of consideration:

  • No one yet has any immunity against COVID-19; so it is like the common cold...you can apparently get it more than once, in fairly rapid succession.
  • There is not yet any vaccine against COVID-19, so we cannot immunize any portion of the population to limit its spread.
  • About 15-20% of the cases of COVID-19 apparently become serious enough for patients to require respiratory assistance to stay alive; and even if you have that assistance, there is the approx. 3-4% fatality rate, which is far higher than ordinary flu.
  • We do not today have enough respiratory assist devices to be used when a major segment of the population gets COVID-19, and 20% need respiratory assist devices...that is happening in parts of Italy already, that doctors are being forced to save the respirators for patients most likely to survive!


So the incidence is fairly low, today. But that could change, as Italy has proven so rapidly.

Why is it that...
  • in one city of 1.2 Million (San Jose), there have been about 66 cases (updated 3/12/20), and
  • in another city of 890K (San Francisco) has 18 cases, and

  • a county of 730K has 20 cases, and
  • another county of 1.6 Million has only 7 cases?!
Yet all of these places are places around SF Bay, and it takes only 45 minutes to drive between SF and San Jose, yet one has 3.6x as many cases?! There seems to be little understanding yet.

So statistics seem to make COVID-19 a bit of a so-what -- until you look at the implications of mass infection, and the lack of ability to fight the virus or even to support critical or severe patients...it becomes like a battlefield, in which someone has to decide who to try to save and who is too bad to spend time saving.

The time is not for panic, but the situation could worsen severely and quickly get there, if the proper preventative measures are not taken. So far our infrastructure can support the COVID-19 load, but it could easily be overwhelmed when the infection rate worsens.

675K Americans died from the Spanish flu at the beginning of the 20th century (50 Million worldwide). If only 2/3 of the population come down with COVID-19, 248 Million would have had it, and 688K (3.5% fatality rate) could die at the beginning of the 21st century! That is why we need to try so hard to prevent the spread of COVID-19

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Spencerphoto
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Mar 12, 2020 23:27 |  #12
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Comparing Covid-19 to flu is largely meaningless.

One of these has been around forever, and we consequently have robust data, knowledge and experience, plus fairly effective treatment/mitigation strategies, including vaccines.

The other is basically brand new, with little reliable data. Remember, most people are highly sceptical of the data coming out of China, so good data only started to be available three or four weeks ago, when it spread outside of China. This paucity of good data not only includes transmission rates, numbers of those diagnosed and fatality rates, but even whether we're dealing with a single strain or several. Much about this virus has the experts puzzled and so a lot of what they're saying is guesswork and speculation.

Added to all this uncertainty, what we DO know is not comforting at all, and far more scary than 'flu. Even in modern nations with 'good' healthcare (i.e. Italy) the infection rate went exponential in the blink of an eye, quickly overwhelming the system, and the fatality rate is estimated to be at least FOUR TIMES higher than 'flu if you catch the 'bad strain' that hit Iran and Italy.

So personally, I'm very worried, and I think it's sensible and reasonable to be worried. It's also sensible to be as prepared as you can be and to minimise your risk of catching it, especially if you're in the high-risk category (noting that, once again, what they thought they knew about who was most susceptible is now looking like it was incorrect, with growing numbers of young people being diagnosed).

So the bottom line for me is that I am going to approach this on the basis that:


  1. We're dealing with a highly contagious virus that WILL spread around the globe, very quickly.
  2. The death rate is likely to be significantly higher than 'flu (and the 'flu hasn't gone away in the meantime folks).
  3. The health experts will remain weeks behind the virus for the foreseeable future, especially if those saying it is already mutating are correct.
  4. The MOST effective thing I can do to protect myself is severely reduce the number of people I come into contact with.

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Mar 12, 2020 23:48 |  #13

Spencerphoto wrote in post #19025688 (external link)
  • The MOST effective thing I can do to protect myself is severely reduce the number of people I come into contact with.
    [/LIST]

  • Those of us already in retirement can rather easily isolate ourselves, and become virtual hermits. Those under 65-ish are working or attending school, so isolation comes only with economic collapse. Scary to think about.


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    Pippan
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    Mar 13, 2020 00:27 as a reply to  @ Spencerphoto's post |  #14

    Spencer it can't be that serious. The Australian Government's response isn't going to kick in until Monday so it doesn't disrupt this weekend's footy.


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    Mar 13, 2020 00:48 |  #15

    Pippan wrote in post #19025701 (external link)
    Spencer it can't be that serious. The Australian Government's response isn't going to kick in until Monday so it doesn't disrupt this weekend's footy.

    Two words.
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