Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

lucky7 wrote in post #19029006
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Be well Dane, we hope all goes well for you and your family.

I've been charting the numbers daily (it's the statistician in me I guess) and one thing I have noticed. Since the virus has moved out of China, the fatality rate has gone up significantly from a low of %1.99 back on 2/6 to %4.11 today. That's 1 in 25. Not great odds.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029022
I've been charting the numbers daily (it's the statistician in me I guess) and one thing I have noticed. Since the virus has moved out of China, the fatality rate has gone up significantly from a low of %1.99 back on 2/6 to %4.11 today. That's 1 in 25. Not great odds.

Don't forget there are many more people sick than officially tested. Many people who do only develop mild symptoms and are just having a bit of a cold for a few days. They do not go to a doctor, or to a hospital. They are not tested. Some carry the virus but don't even get sick at all (although they can pass it along!). It's important to keep that in mind.

sapearl wrote in post #19029011
I think "Lighter" is very important right now Renata - we all need some good humor and stress relief I just checked out your terrific FB video; nicely done and thanks for sharing.

You're welcome. Lighter is what we all need without loosing our focus on what's important.

Be well.

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029025
Don't forget there are many more people sick than officially tested. Many people who do only develop mild symptoms and are just having a bit of a cold for a few days. They do not go to a doctor, or to a hospital. They are not tested. Some carry the virus but don't even get sick at all (although they can pass it along!). It's important to keep that in mind.

That's so true, Levina. And lot of young people think that they are invincible and fairly lighthearted about the current situation. Particularly here.

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029025
Don't forget there are many more people sick than officially tested. Many people who do only develop mild symptoms and are just having a bit of a cold for a few days. They do not go to a doctor, or to a hospital. They are not tested. Some carry the virus but don't even get sick at all (although they can pass it along!). It's important to keep that in mind.

I'm assuming that that would remain rather consistent from location to location unless China had a massive testing program and were able to identify many more people who had Covid but were symptom-less. I know Korea is very low at about 1% and Italy is 8.3%.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029022
I've been charting the numbers daily (it's the statistician in me I guess) and one thing I have noticed. Since the virus has moved out of China, the fatality rate has gone up significantly from a low of %1.99 back on 2/6 to %4.11 today. That's 1 in 25. Not great odds.

Well, now coronavirus is in just about every part of the world. That means in medically advanced countries like Italy to medically ill prepared countries.
About 15% of cases need oxygen assist; another 5% need ventilators. Even in a medically advanced country like Italy, they have RUN OUT of available respirators, so they now have to triage who gets the ventilator and who goes without...imagine that same prioritization when there are far fewer ventilators per captial to begin with, there is a greater rate of death.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029022
I've been charting the numbers daily (it's the statistician in me I guess) and one thing I have noticed. Since the virus has moved out of China, the fatality rate has gone up significantly from a low of %1.99 back on 2/6 to %4.11 today. That's 1 in 25. Not great odds.

It is not possible to calculate a fatality rate (deaths divided by infections) when nobody on this planet has even the most remote idea of how many infections there are. As stated so eloquently below, some people will ride out this disease never knowing they had it, all with while giving it to others who may or may not ever become symptomatic. So far, nobody under 50 has died in the US (yesterday's info). Of those who have died, most have at least one co-morbidity such as respiratory disease/illness, diabetes, and/or some form of cardiovascular compromise.

1 in 25 odds, with 100 deaths so far, is making the assumption that there are only 2500 cases. We have 6,000+ CONFIRMED cases in the US, and educated medical professionals (Dr. Drew among them) estimate the TOTAL number of INFECTIONS to be 100 to 1000 times that number. 100 deaths in 6 million infections is a 0.16% death rate. If we have 600K total cases, the death rate is only 1.6%.

The numbers are available. Third grade math will provide a range of estimates. The biggest problem with the coronavirus so far is that everyone is REACTING. Perhaps it is time for some serious THINKING.

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029025
Don't forget there are many more people sick than officially tested. Many people who do only develop mild symptoms and are just having a bit of a cold for a few days. They do not go to a doctor, or to a hospital. They are not tested. Some carry the virus but don't even get sick at all (although they can pass it along!). It's important to keep that in mind.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029033
I'm assuming that that would remain rather consistent from location to location unless China had a massive testing program and were able to identify many more people who had Covid but were symptom-less. I know Korea is very low at about 1% and Italy is 8.3%.

Latest date published on coronavirus in Italy 2500 deaths in 31,500 confirmed cases. There is absolutely NO INFORMATION in those statistics about death rate. If broad generalities apply, there are 100 to 1000 times as many TOTAL cases as CONFIRMED cases. Your conclusion is not supported by the numbers available.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029037
It is not possible to calculate a fatality rate (deaths divided by infections) when nobody on this planet has even the most remote idea of how many infections there are. As stated so eloquently below, some people will ride out this disease never knowing they had it, all with while giving it to others who may or may not ever become symptomatic. So far, nobody under 50 has died in the US (yesterday's info). Of those who have died, most have at least one co-morbidity such as respiratory disease/illness, diabetes, and/or some form of cardiovascular compromise.

1 in 25 odds, with 100 deaths so far, is making the assumption that there are only 2500 cases. We have 6,000+ CONFIRMED cases in the US, and educated medical professionals (Dr. Drew among them) estimate the TOTAL number of INFECTIONS to be 100 to 1000 times that number. 100 deaths in 6 million infections is a 0.16% death rate. If we have 600K total cases, the death rate is only 1.6%.

The numbers are available. Third grade math will provide a range of estimates. The biggest problem with the coronavirus so far is that everyone is REACTING. Perhaps it is time for some serious THINKING.

You can only draw conclusions from actual data as presented. Once you go down the path of inventing data to sell a story, you get into fantasy land. Your right that it could be that only 1 case in 100 is reported or 1 in 1000, but just as valid is that all cases have been reported, you just can't tell. What is known is that there are 214,010 confirmed cases with 8,727 fatalities, that's 4.08%.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029040
Latest date published on coronavirus in Italy 2500 deaths in 31,500 confirmed cases. There is absolutely NO INFORMATION in those statistics about death rate. If broad generalities apply, there are 100 to 1000 times as many TOTAL cases as CONFIRMED cases. Your conclusion is not supported by the numbers available.

Of course there is. 35,713 confirmed cases and of those 2,978 were fatal. I'm hoping that the numbers are wrong, but those are the numbers as of now. To use your logic, why stop at 100 or 1000 times the totals cases. Why not make it 1,000,000 times. That way your fatality rate would be 8.3387E-06, right?

Wilt wrote in post #19029035
Well, now coronavirus is in just about every part of the world. That means in medically advanced countries like Italy to medically ill prepared countries.
About 15% of cases need oxygen assist; another 5% need ventilators. Even in a medically advanced country like Italy, they have RUN OUT of available respirators, so they now have to triage who gets the ventilator and who goes without...imagine that same prioritization when there are far fewer ventilators per captial to begin with, there is a greater rate of death.

You seem to misunderstand the medical application of the word "TRIAGE". Triage is NOT the decision of who lives and who dies. The medical community's goal with triage is to get the MOST APPROPRIATE treatments to those WHO WILL BENEFIT from them, as quickly as possible. The life and/or death part of the equation comes up frequently.

If uncle George does not get a ventilator he will die. Uncle George is 78 years old, is 50 pounds overweight, has smoked for 60+ years, has emphysema, and needs 5L O2 N/C to live day to day. Denying him a ventilator in order to provide that ventilator to a 56 physically fit person who has a chance to survive is what triage is all about. Not getting a ventilator will not kill uncle George; his lifestyle did that. Hospital/ER triage is a bit late to make your lifestyle decisions.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029042
You can only draw conclusions from actual data as presented. Once you go down the path of inventing data to sell a story, you get into fantasy land. Your right that it could be that only 1 case in 100 is reported or 1 in 1000, but just as valid is that all cases have been reported, you just can't tell. What is known is that there are 214,010 confirmed cases with 8,727 fatalities, that's 4.08%.

No, it is not. 8727/214010 may well be 4.08%. That is DEATH FROM CONFIRMED CASES, which is not even loosely related to ACTUAL DEATH RATE. According to your logic, if we had no way to test for corona virus (= NO # of CONFIRMED CASES, or CONFIRMED deaths), the death rate would be 0%. That is obviously wrong; this disease is killing people, whether we can prove it or not.

Your first sentence would be more properly phased as, "You can only draw VALID conclusions if/when you have real data." We do not. Part of the problem with the media frenzy that is coronavirus is that people are continuously drawing invalid conclusions from incomplete data. That does not help.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029043
Of course there is. 35,713 confirmed cases and of those 2,978 were fatal. I'm hoping that the numbers are wrong, but those are the numbers as of now. To use your logic, why stop at 100 or 1000 times the totals cases. Why not make it 1,000,000 times. That way your fatality rate would be 8.3387E-06, right?

The point is that we have no idea what the death rate is. Don't use my logic; feel free to use your own. Just please stop spreading the fallacy that XX deaths divided by YYY confirmed cases has any relationship at all to the death rate. You, me, God, none of use can know the death rate without knowing the number of infections.

gjl711 wrote in post #19029043
Of course there is. 35,713 confirmed cases and of those 2,978 were fatal. I'm hoping that the numbers are wrong, but those are the numbers as of now. To use your logic, why stop at 100 or 1000 times the totals cases. Why not make it 1,000,000 times. That way your fatality rate would be 8.3387E-06, right?

If Italy is getting 8% percent death rate, I would expect that it would be linked to its healthcare system being overwhelmed rather than the actual lethality of the disease (provided you get treatment).

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029050
No, it is not. 8727/214010 may well be 4.08%. That is DEATH FROM CONFIRMED CASES, which is not even loosely related to ACTUAL DEATH RATE. According to your logic, if we had no way to test for corona virus (= NO # of CONFIRMED CASES, or CONFIRMED deaths), the death rate would be 0%. That is obviously wrong; this disease is killing people, whether we can prove it or not.

Your first sentence would be more properly phased as, "You can only draw VALID conclusions if/when you have real data." We do not. Part of the problem with the media frenzy that is coronavirus is that people are continuously drawing invalid conclusions from incomplete data. That does not help.

That's not exactly how it would go. If we had been unable to develop a medically-sound test, we would still be "testing" according to certain criteria and extrapolating a survival rate based on it, not stupidly concluding that the death rate was 0% (at least not from a public policy perspective).

From what I'm seeing, we can confirm cases after death (for when the test fails), meaning that Covid-19-related deaths are probably more or less directly attributable to the disease. I'm sure there are a number of people that will get Covid-19 and recover on their own without ever having been tested, but I'm sure it's true for other pandemics before as well. The actual death rate will almost always be lower than the confirmed/recorded death rate.

edit: typo