Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

Apricane wrote in post #19029057
If Italy is getting 8% percent death rate, I would expect that it would be linked to its healthcare system being overwhelmed rather than the actual lethality of the disease (provided you get treatment).

That's not exactly how it would go. If we had been unable to develop a medically-sound test, we would still be "testing" according to certain criteria and extrapolating a survival rate based on it, not stupidly concluding that the death rate was 0% (at least not from a public policy perspective).

From what I'm seeing, we can confirm cases after death (for when the test fails), meaning that Covid-19-related deaths are probably more or less directly attributable to the disease. I'm sure there are a number of people that will get Covid-19 and recover on their own without ever having been tested, but I'm sure it's true for other pandemics before as well. The actual death rate with almost always be lower than the confirmed/recorded death rate.

Agreed.

For a bit of perspective, if you please. As mentioned above, the CDC estimates 8,200 American deaths from influenza already this season. So far in 60 days or so, coronavirus has killed 100 Americans. Am I 80 times more likely to die from influenza than coronavirus? Yes? No? Maybe? The real answer is that you don't have sufficient information to intelligently answer the question.

Flu vaccines are available EVERY YEAR. Roughly 50% of Americans do NOT get them. A new disease rears its ugly head, and people are up in arms about it, while essentially ignoring the elephant in the room. Jim Morrison said it best, "People are strange."

Besides, this isn't about the fatality rate to begin with. Don't forget that people die of the common flu every year and those people are also mostly the elderly and people with underlying ilnesses. Such is life.

This is about an infection with a new virus that nobody on the planet has any protection against yet. So it's about too many people getting sick at the same time and as such breaking down health care systems. All the measures countries now take are not taken to stop people from dying but to "flatten the curve" so people who need care will get it. The spread of the disease simply needs to be slowed down, is all.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029062
Agreed.

For a bit of perspective, if you please. As mentioned above, the CDC estimates 8,200 American deaths from influenza already this season. So far in 60 days or so, coronavirus has killed 100 Americans. Am I 80 times more likely to die from influenza than coronavirus? Yes? No? Maybe? The real answer is that you don't have sufficient information to intelligently answer the question.

Flu vaccines are available EVERY YEAR. Roughly 50% of Americans do NOT get them. A new disease rears its ugly head, and people are up in arms about it, while essentially ignoring the elephant in the room. Jim Morrison said it best, "People are strange."

Do you know what "exponential growth" means??

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029064
Besides, this isn't about the fatality rate to begin with. Don't forget that people die of the common flu every year and those people are also mostly the elderly and people with underlying ilnesses. Such is life.

This is about an infection with a new virus that nobody on the planet has any protection against yet. So it's about too many people getting sick at the same time and as such breaking down health care systems. All the measures countries now take are not taken to stop people from dying but to "flatten the curve" so people who need care will get it. The spread of the disease simply needs to be slowed down, is all.

Also true for just about any pandemic

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029064
Besides, this isn't about the fatality rate to begin with. Don't forget that people die of the common flu every year and those people are also mostly the elderly and people with underlying ilnesses. Such is life.

This is about an infection with a new virus that nobody on the planet has any protection against yet. So it's about too many people getting sick at the same time and as such breaking down health care systems. All the measures countries now take are not taken to stop people from dying but to "flatten the curve" so people who need care will get it. The spread of the disease simply needs to be slowed down, is all.

I agree with your primary point here. That nobody has any protection against this virus has NOT been established. There is some theory floating around that the disease does not cause illness in those under 10 because of some type of natural immunity. In general there is an entire family of coronaviruses. SARS was a coronavirus.

And last but not least, China and Japan are reporting varying degrees of treatment success with a medication called Avigan (favipiravir), which was developed to aid in the Ebola crisis. See: https://www.theguardia​n.com …ng-coronavirus-says-china

I think the operating phrase here is "fear of the unknown"
This is why comparing it to flu isn't really a good comparison where human reaction and caution is concerned.

We know exactly how the Flu behaves, we have data going back decades, vaccines, and treatments that are time tested. Most of us have had flu before and have a good idea what to expect. (I had regular flu and h1n1 flu both in one season some years back)

We have none of this for covid19. It is an unknown. We are learning as we go, and what we are learning is scary, what we still don't know is even more frightening. We may not be concerned for ourselves,. but the empathic ones are concerned for friends and family and strangers alike who may be more vulnerable to this virus.

What we do know is that it is more contagious than SARS or MRSA,. less lethal percentage wise, but able to infect without symptoms making it in a way more frightening.

It's like "The Thing" where you don't know who is infected.
That's scary stuff.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029040
Latest date published on coronavirus in Italy 2500 deaths in 31,500 confirmed cases. There is absolutely NO INFORMATION in those statistics about death rate. If broad generalities apply, there are 100 to 1000 times as many TOTAL cases as CONFIRMED cases. Your conclusion is not supported by the numbers available.

Italy has had 475 new deaths for todays totals, 35,713 confirmed cases, Italy had declining increases for 2 days but todays numbers are worse. I hope things take turn for the better for them and everywhere else as well.

What I have read about Italy is that the average age of the deaths is 81, still sucks because someone is missing them.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029037
It is not possible to calculate a fatality rate (deaths divided by infections) when nobody on this planet has even the most remote idea of how many infections there are. As stated so eloquently below, some people will ride out this disease never knowing they had it, all with while giving it to others who may or may not ever become symptomatic. So far, nobody under 50 has died in the US (yesterday's info). Of those who have died, most have at least one co-morbidity such as respiratory disease/illness, diabetes, and/or some form of cardiovascular compromise.

1 in 25 odds, with 100 deaths so far, is making the assumption that there are only 2500 cases. We have 6,000+ CONFIRMED cases in the US, and educated medical professionals (Dr. Drew among them) estimate the TOTAL number of INFECTIONS to be 100 to 1000 times that number. 100 deaths in 6 million infections is a 0.16% death rate. If we have 600K total cases, the death rate is only 1.6%.

The numbers are available. Third grade math will provide a range of estimates. The biggest problem with the coronavirus so far is that everyone is REACTING. Perhaps it is time for some serious THINKING.

It doesn't take much "serious thinking" to realize that regardless of the ability to calculate the precise mortality rate of this corona virus yet, we know enough to take it very seriously. It is beyond dispute that due to the exponential spread of this disease and it's virulence, medical facilities are being over run with patients requiring critical care assistance -- and it's abundantly clear that a significant number of them are dying from the disease.

We also know that many places, including the USA are just in the beginning stages of this exponential growth, unless outside factors are brought to bear to curb it's spread. And the worst is likely to come very soon.

You've continually complained about the lack of information about the total number infected and peoples' responses. What do you propose? That people do nothing?

And your analysis of the numbers is both wrong and misleading. But I don't have time to go into that now.

Archibald wrote in post #19029068
Do you know what "exponential growth" means??

Yes, I do. It means growth at a specified, continuous rate. That rate can be exceedingly fast, or incredibly slow. Bacteria in your mouth grow incredibly fast. If they divide every 15 minutes, the 10,000 or so bacteria in your mouth after your brush your teeth will will be well over 1,000,000 in less than 2 hours. That is exponential growth. Sea tortoises also grow exponentially. They do so so slowly that predation maintains a near-constant population.

Exponential does not mean large/fast or small/slow. It means constant rate, which can be above or below zero. I don't see how the term has any relation to the coronavirus.

FTb wrote in post #19029083
It doesn't take much "serious thinking" to realize that regardless of the ability to calculate the precise mortality rate of this corona virus yet, we know enough to take it very seriously. It is beyond dispute that due to the exponential spread of this disease and it's virulence, medical facilities are being over run with patients requiring critical care assistance -- and it's abundantly clear that a significant number of them are dying from the disease.

We also know that many places, including the USA are just in the beginning stages of this exponential growth, unless outside factors are brought to bear to curb it's spread. And the worst is likely to come very soon.

You've continually complained about the lack of information about the total number infected and peoples' responses. What do you propose? That people do nothing?

And your analysis of the numbers is both wrong and misleading. But I don't have time to go into that now.

You use exponential here like it means something. It does not.

A significant number of elderly with underlying health conditions are dying. Are you claiming they were not going to die from their co-morbidities? That is fantasy land. Emphysema, COPD, CHF, heart and lung issues were going to kill most of them, coronavirus is an opportunistic killer here, not the root cause of the death.

At least we agree on the numbers. ANY analysis of them at this point is wrong and misleading. Perhaps we should stop claiming the sky is falling by repeatedly mis-quoting this or that number. My only point with the numbers is that WE DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERS.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029078

Levina de Ruijter wrote in post #19029064
Besides, this isn't about the fatality rate to begin with. Don't forget that people die of the common flu every year and those people are also mostly the elderly and people with underlying ilnesses. Such is life.

This is about an infection with a new virus that nobody on the planet has any protection against yet. So it's about too many people getting sick at the same time and as such breaking down health care systems. All the measures countries now take are not taken to stop people from dying but to "flatten the curve" so people who need care will get it. The spread of the disease simply needs to be slowed down, is all.

I agree with your primary point here. That nobody has any protection against this virus has NOT been established. There is some theory floating around that the disease does not cause illness in those under 10 because of some type of natural immunity. In general there is an entire family of coronaviruses. SARS was a coronavirus.

And last but not least, China and Japan are reporting varying degrees of treatment success with a medication called Avigan (favipiravir), which was developed to aid in the Ebola crisis. See: https://www.theguardia​n.com …ng-coronavirus-says-china

You and I must be reading the same newpapers. I read the article too.

Yes, COVID-19 is caused by a virus called SARS-CoV-2, indicating its closeness to SARS.

CyberDyneSystems wrote in post #19029081
I think the operating phrase here is "fear of the unknown"
This is why comparing it to flu isn't really a good comparison where human reaction and caution is concerned.

We know exactly how the Flu behaves, we have data going back decades, vaccines, and treatments that are time tested. Most of us have had flu before and have a good idea what to expect. (I had regular flu and h1n1 flu both in one season some years back)

We have none of this for covid19. It is an unknown. We are learning as we go, and what we are learning is scary, what we still don't know is even more frightening. We may not be concerned for ourselves,. but the empathic ones are concerned for friends and family and strangers alike who may be more vulnerable to this virus.

What we do know is that it is more contagious than SARS or MRSA,. less lethal percentage wise, but able to infect without symptoms making it in a way more frightening.

It's like "The Thing" where you don't know who is infected.
That's scary stuff.

Very true, Jake.
Also, influenza often causes pneumonia, but then it's most always secondary, caused by a bacteria. That at least is treatable with antibiotics. COVID-19 seems to attack the lungs directly, so it's viral and thus treatment is difficult and recovery takes a long time as basically patients' own bodies have to fight it off. I have asthma and this is particularly scary for me.

My hospital has launched an app with which people with underlying diseases or lung issues can report on a daily basis what is happening to them. At the hospital a team of 24 is monitoring people's reports every day. There are 5 questions, about fever, coughing, shortness of breath etc. Right now I am all right but if I were to catch the virus and would develop serious symptoms, I would be tested and if necessary admitted. That gives me peace of mind. Nice thing is that the app informs me when my data has been reviewed. So I know it's actually checked every day.

Wrong. Exponential does NOT mean CONSTANT RATE. It also doesn't mean "specified" or "continuous" except in the sense of continuously changing.

Just the opposite, exponential means it mimics a mathematical function which grows ever greater or more rapidly over time.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029087
Yes, I do. It means growth at a specified, continuous rate. That rate can be exceedingly fast, or incredibly slow. Bacteria in your mouth grow incredibly fast. If they divide every 15 minutes, the 10,000 or so bacteria in your mouth after your brush your teeth will will be well over 1,000,000 in less than 2 hours. That is exponential growth. Sea tortoises also grow exponentially. They do so so slowly that predation maintains a near-constant population.

Exponential does not mean large/fast or small/slow. It means constant rate, which can be above or below zero. I don't see how the term has any relation to the coronavirus.

The disease is COVID-19. Corona virus is a generic term for the agent of many flu and cold diseases.

Occurrences of COVID-19 are doubling every few days in Europe and the Americas. That is a very rapid increase. It means it will cause many deaths unless drastic measures are taken to reduce transmission. This is all well understood, both from previous pandemics and from the Chinese experience with the current pandemic.

It is amazing that with all this knowledge, governments were so slow to react. That is why the disease went practically uncontrolled in Europe and some other countries up until recently.

Even in badly-hit Europe there are still lots of people who are deniers or who don't care. To cope with that, Italy and France are implementing measures to force compliance.

PentaxShooter wrote in post #19029090
You use exponential here like it means something. It does not.

A significant number of elderly with underlying health conditions are dying. Are you claiming they were not going to die from their co-morbidities? That is fantasy land. Emphysema, COPD, CHF, heart and lung issues were going to kill most of them, coronavirus is an opportunistic killer here, not the root cause of the death.

At least we agree on the numbers. ANY analysis of them at this point is wrong and misleading. Perhaps we should stop claiming the sky is falling by repeatedly mis-quoting this or that number. My only point with the numbers is that WE DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERS.

What an absurd and nonsensical argument. You're arguing that because they were going to die eventually from their "co-morbidities" we shouldn't consider their deaths as caused by the corona virus? To follow your ridiculous logic to it's conclusion, everyone, including you, is going to die, so I guess we can't attribute anyone's death to anything other than natually occurring maladies like diabetes and heart disease.

FTb wrote in post #19029093
Wrong. Exponential does NOT mean CONSTANT RATE. It also doesn't mean "specified" or "continuous" except in the sense of continuously changing.

Just the opposite, exponential means it mimics a mathematical function which grows ever greater or more rapidly over time.

Yes, it is a constant rate, doubling every time period, for instance every 3 days. The time period varies greatly from place to place depending on many factors, and will also vary with time as (for instance) measures are implemented.