Coronavirus General Discussion (no politics, no flamewars!)

SkedAddled wrote in post #19046739
Anyone else out there have this to keep their spirits up?

haven't watched any M.P. since some time last century!

Charlie wrote in post #19046703
if we're to sample that as a representation of the population, that would mean that possibly millions are infected in NY.

Which would be GOOD thing. The best possible news would be to find out that 80% of the NYC metro area has already had the virus. If that were the case, they could just tell those who are at high risk to continue sheltering until they get a positive antibody test and let the rest of the population go back to business as usual.

If only those who are showing symptoms and are counted for that reason are ill with COVID-19, that would be really bad news, because then eventually the death rate will be much, much higher, as the virus eventually gets to everyone, short of some revolutionary new intervention to prevent or lessen complications.

People could reduce the risk of complications by changing their dietary timing and choices, but people are generally addicts to immune-system-destroying ways of eating.

Charlie wrote in post #19046703
if we're to sample that as a representation of the population, that would mean that possibly millions are infected in NY.

The current estimation is, that in many places we have about 5 times more infected people then reported (see estimation here: https://cmmid.github.i​o …global_cfr_esti​mates.html). The absolute numbers mean diddly-squat and can not be compared with each other. The only thing interesting are the relative changes of these reportings. If the numbers of test go up, but the number of reported cases go down, then this is probably a very good sign that the measures to combat the spread of COVID are working.

joeseph wrote in post #19046752
haven't watched any M.P. since some time last century!

I haven't watched them for a while but I should again because the other day someone attacked me with a banana.

joeseph wrote in post #19046538
2 days before lockdown here my work laptop started producing these screens every few hours or minutes:

Hosted photo: posted by joeseph in
./showthread.php?p=190​46538&i=i5526295
forum: The Lounge

mad panic ensues, re-imaged it at least 3 times eventually shelving it & borrowing another unit - pretty sure the problem is hardware...

After all this BSOD talk I ended up getting the first one ive had in years this morning!

drmaxx wrote in post #19046817
The current estimation is, that in many places we have about 5 times more infected people then reported (see estimation here: https://cmmid.github.i​o …global_cfr_esti​mates.html). The absolute numbers mean diddly-squat and can not be compared with each other. The only thing interesting are the relative changes of these reportings. If the numbers of test go up, but the number of reported cases go down, then this is probably a very good sign that the measures to combat the spread of COVID are working.

I see those estimates as well but if you look at the actual testing data, it doesn't really support that. For example, right now the US has performed over 3,000,000 tests and if reports can be believed, people are tested once they are showing some symptoms or though to have Covid. But even so, only 19% of the tests are positive. I don't think we are going to know until the testing samples become much larger of we get a test that allows you to see if someone has had it and is now immune.

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Last summer I was trying to figure out where to find reptiles here in eastern Washington. . My research on Instagram led me to some people who were very helpful in connecting me to some herpetologists who taught me a lot and showed me a lot.

One of the people who helped is a microbiologist/chemist who is now very active in the development of COVID test kits. . Central Washington University interviewed her yesterday and posted a video to their YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=3Hlv64uFj-g

This virus is making people terribly sick, and even killing people ..... but it's good to see that it has also brought new opportunities into the lives of some young people, and provided a meaningful way for them to put their education, skills, and abilities to work.

In the long run, I think that as a species, we are going to be stronger and more knowledgeable because of what COVID-19 has done to us. . Adversity, loss, and hardship foster growth and adaptiveness.


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gjl711 wrote in post #19046883
I see those estimates as well but if you look at the actual testing data, it doesn't really support that. For example, right now the US has performed over 3,000,000 tests and if reports can be believed, people are tested once they are showing some symptoms or though to have Covid. But even so, only 19% of the tests are positive. I don't think we are going to know until the testing samples become much larger of we get a test that allows you to see if someone has had it and is now immune.

Even though only 19% test positive, the other 81% are not being tested randomly, but rather, because they are symptomatic of something with similar symptoms. Logically, these are mostly people that are most likely to show symptoms from any virus, so this 19:81 ratio can not be used to extrapolate the asymptomatic, infected percentage of a population, if we don't know the histogram of severity of each virus. One virus could have 85% people symptomatic, and another, 25%.

John Sheehy wrote in post #19046916
Even though only 19% test positive, the other 81% are not being tested randomly, but rather, because they are symptomatic of something with similar symptoms. Logically, these are mostly people that are most likely to show symptoms from any virus, so this 19:81 ratio can not be used to extrapolate the asymptomatic, infected percentage of a population, if we don't know the histogram of severity of each virus. One virus could have 85% people symptomatic, and another, 25%.

Thats the point I was trying to make, without data, these guys are all guessing but even looking at the limited, incomplete data we do have. it doesn't really seem to support their claims.

gjl711 wrote in post #19046930
Thats the point I was trying to make, without data, these guys are all guessing [...]

This is very true - but it is the a best guess based on the knowledge we (or better the scientists) have about how diseases spread and the data we have about how COVID spreads.

gjl711 wrote in post #19046930
but even looking at the limited, incomplete data we do have. it doesn't really seem to support their claims.

You did not show this with your claim. This is what JJ tries to point out in his reply to you.

This made me laugh.
Don

I wan't to break free Fun video about quarantine https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=URgKNUnJhd4

itsallart wrote in post #19047035
I wan't to break free Fun video about quarantine https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=URgKNUnJhd4

Love it.

itsallart wrote in post #19047035
I wan't to break free Fun video about quarantine https://www.youtube.co​m/watch?v=URgKNUnJhd4

You always come up with good stuff Renata

Charlie wrote in post #19046703
if you know anyone working the hospitals around the LA area, they are very low volume right now.

if you're alluding to more than meets the eye, well, that's always going to be the case with viruses. Not sure if you heard of the story with pregnant women in new york, it's a small sample size, but the vast majority were asymptomatic.

https://nypost.com …etting-coronavirus-study/

a large percentage had covid-19! if we're to sample that as a representation of the population, that would mean that possibly millions are infected in NY.

Absolutely no inferences by me, apart from the obvert and clear statements of that post!

Am well aware the hidden dangers of asymtomatic patients...the infected cruise ship Grand Princess was docked 30 minutes from my home. Not everyone on crew and paassenger list was tested, but of those tested, about 18% were Positive results. Of that 18% Positive, Half were symtomless. That initially demonstrated that much of the iceberg was indeed hidden.

Now, compared to the rather extreme conclusions that you might draw from that linkabout pregnant women, let me offer this contrast in numbers...
The USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier has had about 93% of its crew tested and results returned
as of Sunday:

• 585 positive of 4309 results, or 13.6% positive
  
• 3,724 negative of 4309 results, or 86.4% negative.
  

1. the Positive portion of the three tested groups runs from 14% (Roosevelt) to 16.5% (Presbyteriann/Colubia​) to 18% (Grand Princess)
   
2. the asymptomatic Positive portions are between 50% of those tested positive (Grand Princess) to 88% of those tested positive (Presbyterian/Columbia​)... the (eallier) Thursday results of 416 positives shows 55% of that were asymptomatic.
   

1. the two NYC hospitals' extremely high fraction of asymptomatic patients, especially why...maybe because of it coming from a supercenter of COVID-19?! wild speculation on my part.
   
2. And maybe when the population is confined to a ship (Grand Princess, USS Roosevelt) a more representative fraction of asymptomatic is Half.
   
3. But a total unknown for a generally circulating population as there are vastly insufficient tests being conducted to indicate what percentage of a total population have the virus...we currently currently cannot even test all 'patients with symptoms' -- until they are severe enough to put into a hospital!